Premium Sponsor

Featured Sponsor

Our Sponsors

Ad Networks

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

GA-Sen: Saxby Still Leads in Two New Polls

by: James L.

Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 6:05 PM EST

Public Policy Polling (11/22-23, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±3.3%)

The usual caveats of special election/runoff polling still applies here, of course -- it's tough to nail down a good sample in a low-turnout election, but it's worth noting that this result is nearly identical to a recent R2K poll showing Saxby up by 51-45.

Tom Jensen has more:

Chambliss leads 69-29 with white voters. Even with a higher than expected black turnout for the runoff that share of the white vote would not be good enough for Martin to win- he needs to move closer to a third of it.
Martin leads with voters under 45, but Chambliss has a staggering 69-31 lead with senior citizens, and with the balance of the electorate between older and younger voters tipping in an old direction for the runoff, that makes Martin's climb that much harder.

If there's some solace here, at least we know that the newer generation of Georgians is more progressive than the oldsters.

Not going quietly, the DSCC has a new poll of their own. The Mellman Group (11/21-23, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±4%)

At the very least, every post-election poll agrees that Martin is sitting in the mid-forties, which is still sort of remarkable given just how bad Georgia has looked for Democrats in the past couple of cycles. Anything can happen in a low-turnout election, but this race does seem to be leaning towards Chambliss.

James L. :: GA-Sen: Saxby Still Leads in Two New Polls

Tags: GA-Sen, Polls, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

GA-Sen: Saxby Still Leads in Two New Polls | 15 comments

I'm sorry, but I don't think it's there for us

Even if Obama goes down there, I don't think i's going to happen. Georgia did not vote for Obama or Martin the first time around. I don't see how we alter the turout enough to swing it our way without the energy of November 4. It's almost December and the wind is just out of the sails. However, I think LA-06 is a different story with a fairly favorable district (changed since Katrina) and a strong candidate. That's where my last-minute money is going.

by: RandySF @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 17:12:59 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Minnesota Isn't Either

According to the latest numbers coming out from the recount, Coleman's lead has bounded back to a steady 202 votes (roughly in the same number he had to begin with on Election Night). What's surprising is that BOTH Coleman and Franken are getting less votes more and more, which is leading to a stronger margin for Coleman because Franken keeps bleeding votes also.

While many find consolation in the fact that both candidates have contested almost 4000 ballots between both of them, it would require a miracle and a huge amount of bullshiting by the Franken team to pick off enough votes back into their column to narrow that gap and, by the grace of God, actually pull ahead.

I'd hate to say it, but I don't think Franken will be the next Senator from Minnesota!!!!!!!!

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 17:39:30 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

No Way to Tell in Minnesota

The number of contested ballots will dwarf the difference between Coleman and Franken. Strib shows about 2400 contested ballots right now and it will probably be around 4000 by the time the count ends. Since either side can contest a ballot for any reason, there's no way to know how the challenged ballots will break.

by: sicembears @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 17:46:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

What you can tell...

Are that about 1,500 challenged ballots were originally counted for Franken or Coleman. So there are about 600 new ballots or so that are hidden in the challenges. But I agree. There is no way to tell where this race is at and to call it for Coleman right now would be flat out ignorant to the process / math behind what is really going on here.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 18:13:09 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

The challenges seem to be hurting Franken moreso

Look at Hennepin county (Minneapolis) where so far Franken has lost 249 votes and Coleman has lost 246, for a net gain of 3 for Coleman. This however is because Coleman has challenged 409 ballots and Franken only 335. That 74 challenge difference is more than a third of Coleman's current lead statewide. While this race could easily go either way, I feel confident in predicting that Franken will net votes in Hennepin when all this is sorted out, not lose them.

Take a look at another county with a lopsided challenge margin: Fillmore, where Coleman has lost 1 vote and Franken has lost 15. Franken's team has challenged 3 votes, and Coleman's team has challenged 27. Coincidence or not? This is why Nate Silver is optimistic about Franken's chances after these challenges are ruled upon in December.

Statewide, Coleman has challenged 1285 ballots and Franken has challenged 1138, a difference of 147. Earlier, Franken was challenging about the same number or more than Coleman, so Coleman's people have clearly stepped it up today.

by: skaje @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 18:29:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

When even the DSCC has you behind

it doesn't look good.

I'd bet we lose it by about two points. Martin hasn't run a particularly good campaign and the DSCC, DNC and Obama never stepped up to the level needed.

by: Populista @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 18:35:23 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Obama

Martin campaign is now making robocalls featuring Obama asking people to vote, so at least that's a little step in the right direction by Obama. But, I agree with you--Obama and DNC have not made an all out effort, which is what's needed. Perhaps they think the risk of doing so but still losing is too great.

by: sicembears @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 18:48:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I don't think you can blame the

DSCC, DNC, or Obama. Martin was either going to win on election day or not at all. He fell short. It happens.

by: wmlawman @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 18:48:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

That stupid 50% rule

Really, Dems in GA would be much better off without it.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 19:26:41 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Martin still would've lost

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 22:17:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I know that

But it still hurts us in many races in Georgia far more than it hurts republican candidates. Thouh I do think the DSCC would have gone in bigger before the general had there not been a run-off rule.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 07:20:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed.

Don't point the finger at anybody but Martin, Chambliss and the voters. They're the ones who decide this election.

Until I see evidence to the contrary, I'm not at all convinced that either the DNC or Obama could really move the numbers for Martin.

by: nrimmer @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 19:31:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Ya, it's friggin GA

The fact that Martin came within a few points of winning this race in the general should reflect very well on Martin, Obama and Democrats in general. It shows that we are making progress in the state. It's not like Martin ran as some kind of DINO either. He basically ran as an Obama Democrat and still nearly won.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 19:46:32 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Not sure about that

I've thought Martin has run a stellar campaign to get where the race currently stands. Of all the long-shot races, Martin was the one able to come close on election night. He did a good job of spending early to close in on virtually every poll against Chambliss. Unfortunately the DSCC money didn't put him over in the general election, but he came really close despite being heavily outspent.

by: Progressive America @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 19:31:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Jeez it's not over yet

A little early for the post mortems isn't it? Nobody thought we were going to pull it out in the TX-23rd in the special in 2006 and Ciro Rodriguez won by 8 points and I don't think I need to remind anyone of how stellar Democrats did in special elections in 2007 and 08.
So let's hold off a bit for right now. Jim Martin has 25 field offices open across the state with hundreds of volunteers sacrificing trips home to see family over Thanksgiving to help him win this race. Sure early vote numbers don't look great, sure polls aren't were I'd like them to be, but the election is December 2nd and a hell of a lot could change between now and then. These volunteers are pouring their hearts out on cold, rainy days like today because they believe there is still a chance.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

by: fitchfan28 @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 22:58:09 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

GA-Sen: Saxby Still Leads in Two New Polls | 15 comments