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NY-Gov: Another Poll Has Paterson Leading Rudy

by: DavidNYC

Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 12:00 PM EST


Marist College (11/18, registered voters, Oct. in parens):

David Paterson (D-inc): 51 (51)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 41 (42)
Undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ±4%)

So, a slightly wider margin than we saw in the Siena College poll the other day, but not too much difference. Unlike in the Siena survey, though, Paterson's approvals have dropped somewhat, to 51-37 from 57-34. Still, not too shabby given the financial crisis.

Marist also tested Paterson against Bloomberg, but to me, that's not even a question worth asking. Bloomsberry just spent a huge amount of political capital on his definition-of-self-serving move to extend term limits in NYC. He's running for mayor in 2009. There is quite literally no way, no how he could do that then turn right around and run for governor. However, there is one interesting tidbit here: Paterson trailed His Bloominess by 11 in October, but leads by 4 now. Make of that what you will.

Anyhow, I also tend to doubt Rudy will even run - his "leaving the door open" statement the other day was so half-hearted. But it at least remains a possibility. And I'd love to see Paterson wipe the floor with him.

DavidNYC :: NY-Gov: Another Poll Has Paterson Leading Rudy
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Run, Rudy, run!
Lose, Rudy, lose! Really, I can hardly wait to see him lose another race so that he's so disgraced no one will let him run for any other office ever again!

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One concern I have is: can Paterson raise the money?
If Rudy really comes after him, this could be a $20M race, no?

New York being as Democratic as it is, I expect the Governor to pull it off, and fairly easily, but only if he's got the cash. IIRC, the DGA is perpetually underfunded, so they can't come in to save him if needed.


He's a statewide Dem in NY
The money would flow in to Paterson.  And if Rudy challenges him I have no doubt that the millions of us nationwide who despise Rudy will be flooding Paterson with donations.  Cash really shouldn't be a problem for Paterson.

[ Parent ]
We'd all get to start typing 9ui11iani again...
There's no way he can run a campaign let alone talk without bringing it up.  

[ Parent ]
Rudy at a Governor's debate
"How can we trust a man who didn't even see 9/11 to effectively deal with 9/11?"

[ Parent ]
That would be extraordinarily cold!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
He isn't some nobody....
...like your typical NY Lt Governor (particularly under Pataki).  He was the Minority Leader of the New York State Senate and from a powerful family whose dad is/was a member of the politcal machine in Harlem and former New York Secretary of State.  He has strong ties to the politcal class in New York State as well as business.  At the time it was considered a surprise that he would even accept the position.  He isn't a lightweight.

[ Parent ]
One has to wonder what Paterson knew at the time
:D

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

[ Parent ]
The theory was
Spitzer knew he was going to (eventually) go down and picked the next Governor as his running mate.

When he picked Paterson, eyebrows were raised because usually you would pick someone from Upstate if you're a downstate guy...Spitzer's from The Bronx. Even had assumed Sptizer's pick would be someone like Matthew Driscoll, the Mayor of Syracuse or Paul Tokasz, who was the Majority Leader of the State Assembly from Cheektowaga (a Buffalo suburb).

The theory then was Spitzer was prepping himself to be Hillary's AG when she wins the Presidency and thus picked Paterson to take his place as Governor when that happened. Now the theory changed to; he picked Paterson in case he got caught  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
i've always heard
paterson's idea was that he'd get appointed to hillary's senate seat... saw himself as much more of a collegial legislator than a ball-busting executive. of course, after spitzer's vitriolic year and a half in office, having a convivial mediator in albany was a breath of fresh air to many...

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

[ Parent ]
Yeah that was the idea too
but we always doubted that theory since it was a near certainty early on Spitzer would be frontrunner for Attorney General...as he became more unpopular, the theory shifted to Paterson getting Hillary's Senate seat.

But Paterson was always beloved in Albany, so taking him out of Albany probably wouldn't have been the best idea.

That's what could keep him in office...Albany loves Paterson (though the honeymoon is over for the GOP, who are really more bitter about losing their Senate majority), Rudy is not loved there at all.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
All of this I know, and I'm not calling him
a lightweight. If he can raise the cash, he'll coast.  

[ Parent ]
According to NYS fundraising reports
Paterson hauled in $3.3 million in the first half of 2008, and apparently he has about that much on hand. Think about that: He only became governor halfway through the quarter, and it was a major presidential election year. He also just had a monster fundraiser in NYC (no numbers yet, but chairs were required to raise $100K) right after the election.

I am definitely not worried about his fundraising abilities. In fact, I think he might even be able to scare people off if he amasses a big enough warchest. Note that NYS has much, much higher limits than the federal government, so it's easier to raise in large chunks. With the state Senate about to turn blue (we hope), the Democrats are going to be the only game in town.


[ Parent ]
Agreed he won't run
I think for Rudy, being President is the only job he'd find more interesting than "Being Rudy."  It would be fun to watch Patterson clobber him.  Rudy's Presidential campaign was so far beyond direction-less -- I can't remember which one, but one of the major news magazines called it "Rudy's $40 Million Florida Vacation."

If the 1993 NY Mayor's race is any indication
a Rudy vs. Paterson race will be one of the meanest, nastiest, most vile races with plenty of racial undertones.

Another words, Rudy should do well on Long Island.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


Rudy the Indy?
The PDF lists him as an Independent.  I'm assuming that's a typo...


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