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KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread

by: James L.

Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 10:00 AM EST


GOP Sen. Sam Brownback is retiring from the Senate in 2010, and Dems have one big name on the bench who could actually make a race of his open seat -- Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, who will be conveniently term-limited out of office that same year. However, Sebelius is also being rumored as a possible Secretary of Labor choice in Obama's cabinet, and if he makes that move, that would likely take her out of contention. Accepting a Cabinet job and quitting after, say, twelve months to run for elected office again strikes me as something that would probably be frowned upon. (Yes, I'm aware that Mel Martinez and Mike Johanns both pulled this move, but each of those gentlemen served in Bush's Cabinet for nearly three years each.)

Assuming that Sebelius doesn't run (for whatever reason), is there anyone on the Dem bench who could make this race interesting? I have my doubts, but anything is possible. On the GOP side of the aisle, 1st CD Rep. Jerry Moran is running, and 2nd CD Rep. Todd Tiahrt could very well join him in a few months. Our best hope here is for a contentious and divisive Republican primary. Don't let us down, Todd!

As for the Governor's office, it seems likely that Sam Brownback will run for the seat himself. Are there any Dems who have a prayer against him? Of all the term-limited Democratic gubernatorial seats up in 2010, this one may be the likeliest to slip back into GOP hands.
James L. :: KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread
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KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 34 comments
All about Sebelius and Schumer
If Gov. Sebelius doesn't run for the open senate seat, Kansas goes back to the depths of Republican domination. Schumer has to convince her to run or we are finished in Kansas. The only other possible candidate with a prayer is Boyda, but she would be a distinct underdog, considering she couldn't even hold her district this cycle.

This race is similar to the AZ-Senate Race, in the fact that we need our top candidate or its a waste of time.

Oklahoma is the same thing with Brad Henry.

Let's hope Schumer comes back and gets us our recruits for OK and KS.

In AZ- Senate
i'm assuming John McCain doesn't retire.
[ Parent ]
Yes...
Schumer needs to get to her before Obama does.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
OK-sen
Dan Boren would make it a race the boren name is gold here in Oklahoma and he has been puting back money and my source's say he will run and henry will support it

In only 1 state senate race did we dramaticly over perform the top of the ticket with a challanger in 08 David Boren in moore and he is not of the same boren clan just ran on the name David L Boren and almost won 100 voted shy of knocking off an inc. Rep. So do not count out Dan no matter how much I don't like some of his votes

[ Parent ]
yeah forgot about him
He could be a good pick as well.
[ Parent ]
Hopefully
If Governor Henry doesn't go for the Senate race, and I don't think he will, I hope Boren does.  It wouldn't cause us to lose his house seat because I'm sure Carson would run to win his old seat back.  Also, Boren is one of our absolute worst congressmen anyway.
[ Parent ]
boren's seat
Is safe the dem beanch is stong in little dixie(OK-2) and if carson does not run state sen. Kenneth corn would win or frm. House speker Larry Adair my question is does Cole run for govenor and if so does my senator John Sparks (dem sen-16) a cousin of cole's run he would make a good canidate and may make a run of it he raised $350,000 for a state sen race and has some family money as I understand and a good profile for the seat
[ Parent ]
Please, not another raid!
Will Obama leave ANY Red State Democratic Governors to have a bench in these areas? I really hope he leaves Sebelius in Kansas. We need her in 2010!

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
Picking Sebelius
The move would probably strengthen our chances of holding the KS Governorship in 2010 by allowing Lt Governor Parkinson to attain two years of incumbency.
[ Parent ]
I would rather have a Senator then a governor
TBH I really care more about what Kansas does in effect to the rest of the country. If they want to elect whackjobs to their other offices, its better then Senator. Of course I would like us to win both but if i have to pick between the two....

[ Parent ]
That is exactly the problem
The red states in the midwest such as Kansas don't have all that much problem electing Dems to Governorships or Attorney General, but they usually refuse to elect them to D.C.  I think the same owuld be true of Sebelius if she runs for Senate.  She may be our best chance, but her chances are probably a good deal below 50%, despite claims to the contrary on blogs.  

Look at Ben Nelson of Nebraska.  He was an incredibly popular sitting Governor of Nebraska, ran for Senate in 1996 and got destroyed.  He only won in 2000 narrowly against an aweful opponent.

[ Parent ]
in 2000
he ran against the sitting Attorney General with Presidential coattails, I wouldn't call that an underwhelming performance. He should not have lost in 1996, Jim Exon held that seat easily for many terms and he was very liberal. Bob Kerrey also held Nelson's seat easily.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Well,
i wouldn't call Jim Exon VERY liberal or, in fact,  liberal at all.. May be by Nebraska's standards, but that's all.. He was generally considered as "slightly right of center" in his time. Kerrey - yes, at least moderate liberal...
[ Parent ]
yeah your right and it sucks
I would say we would be the dog in race even with Serbelius, but I think we have a fighting chance.

I would say it would be a good investment by the DSCC if she got into the race, but would leave it alone if she doesn't.

[ Parent ]
I'd agree she wouldn't be the favorite
Not in Kansas. Not when the state hasn't elected a Dem to the Senate in like forever. But she is easily the best chance of making the Repubs work for it thus meaning they can spend fewer resources on defense in FL, KY, PA, NC, OH, LA, MO and NH and on offense in NV, WI, CO and whatever else may open up.
[ Parent ]
1932
was the last year a Democrat won a Senate seat in Kansas. If anyone can find out who that senator was, I'd appreciate it.

Interesting fact: Both Utah and Wyoming had Democratic senators more recently than KS. WY's last was Gale McGee, who lost to Malcom Wallop in 1976 and UT's last was Frank Moss, who lost to Orrin Hatch in 1976.

[ Parent ]
I wiki'd it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G...

George McGill

Re-elected in 1932 then lost Senate races in 1938, 1942, 1948 and 1954.  Talk about a guy who wouldn't realize the voters rejected him!

[ Parent ]
Orman
I was disappointed when that venture capitalist John Orman bowed out of the Senate Race this year.  He probably got spooked by something and won't run again.  It was really too bad because our options in Kansas aren't that great unless we wanted to run Dennis Moore if Sebelius doesn't run for the U.S. Senate.

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  
You really want denny moore to give up his house seat?
I don't wanna risk that for what be at best an underdog campaign.
[ Parent ]
You're right
I guess I didn't emphasize my skepticism of such a move at first.  Moore just would be an option, we don't have many there.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  
[ Parent ]
Sam Brownback
is probably not running for governor and Mark Patterson will probably come out on top of whoever the GOP run. Wyoming is probably the most likely state to flip.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
Yes
I'd say Wyoming and Oklahoma are the most likely losses.  I think you mean Parkinson and not Patterson in Kansas, but ya he'll have crossover appeal being that he is quite moderate and a former republican.
[ Parent ]
Oklahoma's not likely
to switch, Drew Edmonson is very popular, and will likely win easily. Republicans have almost nothing of a statewide bench in Oklahoma.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
That's good to hear
I was basing my assumption off of the pathetic showing this year by Oklahoma Dems.  That state just seems to be trending more than almsot any other against Democrats.  What job does Edmonson currently hold, Lt. Gov.?
[ Parent ]
Attorney-General
Edmundson is AG. The lt. governorship was held by Republicans, but the incumbent lost in 2006. With that loss, the Rs were shut out of OK statewide offices.
[ Parent ]
Actually,
she left to run for Congress. We won the Lt. Governorship in an open seat race. In OK, all the constitutional officers are Democrats. The only Republican state office holders are the three members of the Corporation Commission. If Edmundson runs, we will win easily. If he does not run, we have several other good options. I think the Republicans best option is Congresswoman and former Lt. Governor Mary Falin.
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't say trending against Dems...
OK actually seems to be treading water. They're change-resistant, but Obama actually improved on Kerry's statewide margin by 47 votes. Compare that to, say, Arkansas, which was an R +17 swing. Okies also don't seem to have a problem with having a Democratic governor, they just generally refuse to send Democrats who aren't named Boren to DC.

I still have some hope for a Henry-Coburn race, but I should save it for the upcoming Oklahoma thread.  

[ Parent ]
Parkinson
He's the Lt. Governor. I think he'd have a shot. Actually Sebelius getting picked to the cabinent might HELP us here beacuse he'd have two years of incumbency to run on. Would kill us in the Senate race though. It's a lost cause unless Sebelius or that Congresperson/Movie lobbyist/Sec of Ag (Dan Glickman?) run.
He would
A lot of people overrate Brownback.  Over the years it seems that he's always been around a 50% job approval.  He's not beloved by anyone except for hardcore conservatives in Kansas.  I think Parkinson it the kind of moderate who could triangulate Brownback in and win over many moderate republicans.
[ Parent ]
Moderate Republican Turncoat?
Is there someone like Parkinson who could make the Senate run (assuming Parkinson himself runs for Governor and Sebelius doesn't run)?  I know the Kansas GOP has been torn between the mods and conservatives.  Perhaps there's a moderate who has lost out in intraparty battles and wouldn't mind taking his chances on the Democratic line.  I'm sure he or she wouldn't be a great progressive, but I would take whatever D I can get in Kansas.
Kansas loves to alternate the parties in the governor's chair
One thing to keep in mind is that no Gov. of Kansas has replaced a governor of the same party since 1965.  Several of those races were very close, but the tradition is pretty firmly entrenched.
Sean Tevis?
He ran an impressive campaign against an intrenched incumbent, losing by 425 votes.  He probably wouldn't win, but in a state with a bench as thin as ours, he would run a competent campaign and push Kansas in a bluer direction.
Let the Dem Lt.Goveror run
he would probably win as an incumbent.  
[ Parent ]
I was going to suggest the same
It'd also be a free pick - he got funding from internet sources aside from the netroots.

And whilst he'd probably lose, he would certainly shift the Overton window and it would be a counter-attack in the culture wars.

[ Parent ]
KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 34 comments

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