Polls have him up 6?

In that case he's up about 10.  New Jersey polls always understate actual Democratic support.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 16:14:02 PM CST

That didn't seem to happen this year, though.

The polls had Stender, Shulman all in essentially tossups. Both of them lost badly.

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by: MichiganLiberal @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 16:36:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Meant statewide actually

I'm not sure about local races, but statewide if you look at historical polls even Ramsussen and SUSA are more favorable to repubs in New Jersey.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 16:44:51 PM CST

[ Parent ]

actually

Stender was narrowly behind in all but her own internals, and like twenty-five percent were undecided. This was the perfect situation to win this, it really coudln't have been better. An expensive, divisive Republican primary, a strong Democratic performance atop the ticket, a strong Democratic candidate, and a Republican running as a third party conservative. Stender just did horribly and ran a horrible campaign. Everybody broke for Lance. Lautenburg's elect numbers were terrible, one or two polls had him statistically tied with Zimmer and he still won 56-42. Menendez was in for a photo finish with Kean and instead destroyed him in 2006. Even Christine Todd Whitman only barely won twice, and the state was more Republican then.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 16:52:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yeah...

Stender's more the exception than the rule. She blew the perfect storm. Meanwhile, Obama & Lautenberg outperformed the polls & won. Jeez, will we ever be able to pick up that seat?

But anyways, if Corzine's already leading then he'll probably win next year.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

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by: atdleft @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 17:55:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

plus 56-42

was not a bad performance for Shulman. It was about what I expected, and mirrowed the presidential result. This is a very conservative district, and while Garrett is to the right of it, we'd need a stronger, better known candidate with more money and credibility to say it, in order to have any shot of winning this district.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 16:54:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Not a bad candidate

Shulman raised more money than any of the other candidates who opposed Garrett and nearly tied Paul Aronsohn's results from two years ago running in a Presidential rather than an off year.  The folks over at Blue Jersey had much nicer things to say about Shulman than about Garrett.  The largest complaints were that the Bergen County Democratic Organization was tainted with some scandal and was a b it of a drag and that the continued challenge of Camille Abate and her negative attacks on Shulman, Arohnson, etc made both races way more of an uphill climb than they needed to be.

If the half million dollar farce none as the Camille Abate vanity show (both sides) was set up building a campaign organization the race would have beenin the 52-48 or 53-47 range.  Look her up.  She talks fondly about her days with reform Democrats in Greenwich Village.  In this district?  The second coming of Bella Abzug won't play district wide although it will get a certain nostalgia vote for the primary.

P.S.  I live in an even more Republican district next door (NJ-11) and the somewhat moderate Republican once more cleaned house in getting back to the House.  If Garrett wasn't so crazy, his district would be a GOP cinch.

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 17:14:39 PM CST

[ Parent ]

didn't say he was

I just said we needed a more well known, credible, (ie respected politician) to run against Garrett in order to win. As it is Shulman somehow underperformed Arohnson despite spending three times as much money as him and running a much more high-profile campaign.

Plus, I'd say, looking at both the 2000 and 2004, (anybody have 2008 yet?), NJ-11 and NJ-05 are equally far-right. NJ-05 used to be swingish before Democrats gerrymandered it in 2002, forcing the longtime Republican incumbent, a moderate, to retire rather than face defeat at the hands of a more conservative opponent.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 19:09:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Which poll said that for Shulman?

I don't recall seeing any that pegged the race as a tossup.

For NJ-07, on the other hand, the polls were definitely all over the map.

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by: James L. @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 16:54:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

MO for McCain

CNN has called MO for McCain.  No surprise.  That makes the final EV score 365 to 173.

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by: jward373 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 17:07:12 PM CST

EV#365 really made me smile

Always fun winning part of Nebraska.  Who knew there actually WERE a lot of Obama-Terry voters?

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 17:26:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]

CALIFORNIA SUPREME COURT TAKES PROP H8 LAWSUITS!!

I know this is O/T, but I have to break the news here!

http://clintonistasforobama.bl...

Now I don't want to become overconfident in expecting victory in the court, but I do take this as a good sign that the judges have doubts regarding the legality of 8. Let's hope that they come through for us again... And now's a good time to make that holiday gift to the ACLU! :-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

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by: atdleft @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 17:49:52 PM CST

On the radio tonight

Driving home I heard it said that they were taking on three separate lawsuits regarding prop 8.  Sounds like good news to me.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 19:51:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

OK, We are officially more backwards than NEPAL!

The Supreme Court of Nepal has directed the country's government to end sexual orientation-based discrimination and to extend equal rights to gender minorities, including same-sex marriage.

http://jurist.law.pitt.edu/pap...

This is getting pathetic.  We're now trailing behind third world countries on gay rights.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 20:11:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Chris Christie

He launched frivolous investigations against Menendez in order to influence the 2006 election. He's not a reformer, he's a partisan hack.

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by: duffman @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 18:24:05 PM CST

Corzine will win by around 10 points

I doubt Christie even runs.

More worried about VA-Gov, if McAuliffe steamrolls his way in this could become a tossup, whereas if Deeds or Moran is the nominee we're probably favored.

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by: skaje @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 18:43:06 PM CST

not with Moran

he comes off as a longtime North Virginia party boss, while Deeds comes across as a regular guy. Moran's also connected to his controversial brother, a U.S. Representative from Arlington. I doubt that McAuliffe will win, even with his connections he is a not capable of winning over two homegrown candidates.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 19:11:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Chris Christie

Chris Christie...that's a really cool name!

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by: gutter2d @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 19:35:18 PM CST

42 is a Bad Number

Yeah, I know New Jersey has a history of reelecting Democratic incumbents who poll poorly - but nonetheless 42 is a terribly number for an incumbent. I wouldn't consider him as safe as some of you do.

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by: armand @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 08:33:59 AM CST

Seen as though Barack is going round naming all elected Dems to his cabinet

How about something for Corzine so Dick Codey can win in a walkover?

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 10:28:34 AM CST