Premium Sponsor

Featured Sponsor

Our Sponsors

Ad Networks

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

NY-Gov: Early Line Favors Paterson Over Rudy

by: DavidNYC

Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 12:14 AM EST

Some early reads from Siena College (PDF) (11/10-13, registered voters, Oct. in parens):

David Paterson (D-inc): 49 (51)
Rudy Giuliani: 43 (40)
Undecided: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Siena has actually been testing this matchup since July, and the numbers have stayed fairly constant, though this is the smallest margin yet seen. I personally think Paterson would beat Rudy, and probably handily at that, but I'd actually be a bit surprised if Rudy ran in the first place. I think he'd have the exact same sort of "doesn't play well with others" problem that Spitzer had with the legislature, only worse. (Though maybe he's not smart enough to realize that.)

But he's put in such crappy efforts in his last two campaigns (for president and for senate in 2000) that I don't think he has the fire in the belly for this one. And if he does for some reason want to run for president again in 2012, then this seat just isn't an option for him, win or lose.

Siena also tested AG Andrew Cuomo against Rudy (July in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 44 (47)
Rudy Giuliani: 46 (42)
Undecided: 10 (11)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

The odds of this scenario coming to pass are very slim. I very much doubt Cuomo would challenge a sitting governor in a primary, and it's even less likely that he'd win. And even if both of those events somehow came to pass, he'd have less than two months to run a general election campaign, thanks to NY's notoriously late primary. Anyhow, his numbers aren't very good against Paterson (July in parens):

Paterson: 53 (51)
Cuomo: 25 (21)
Undecided: 22 (28)

As it happens, Cuomo's favorability rating has soared lately, to an impressive 61-19 (it was 48-29 when he first took office). It looks like he's inheriting the good part of Spitzer's mantle in his crusade against the chiselers and wastrels at AIG. Paterson, however, is also doing extremely well: He's at 64-19. But with looming budget cuts, these gaudy numbers could be vulnerable.

I still think a primary challenge by Cuomo - or, in fact, anyone else, like Hillary Clinton - is not in the cards for a variety of reasons. But Paterson might be able to avoid even the hint of a threat if Clinton takes the Secretary of State job and he in turn appoints Cuomo to her seat. We'll see soon enough!

(Hat-tip: Political Wire.)

DavidNYC :: NY-Gov: Early Line Favors Paterson Over Rudy

Tags: NY-Gov, David Paterson, Rudy Giuliani, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

NY-Gov: Early Line Favors Paterson Over Rudy | 37 comments

paterson's pick

recent discussion of who might replace hilary in the senate focused quite a bit on electability.

here's something to mull over. if paterson is threatened by giuliani - wouldn't it make political sense for him to pick someone like nydia velazquez that appears vulnerable, thus baiting rudy to run for senate instead of governor?

i think highly of paterson (and my congresswoman velazquez too), but i have to imagine the prospect's occured to him

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

by: RichardPlatypus @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 23:53:59 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I think there is no chance

That Rudy would run for Senate. The job clearly didn't suit him the first time around (Rudy 1 of 100? as if), which is why he bailed mid-stream. No way he tries again.

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 00:12:33 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Does Rudy...

Even live in New York anymore?! I thought he had bought himself (& Puppy-killing Judy) a compound in Florida. Can't he just stay there & get publicity doing something NOT involving elected office?

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:37:16 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Meh.

Is Rudy the only one who can make this interesting? They should have polled Rep. King. I want to see him give up his house seat.

OT: What's with all the Reid hating on DKos? He was going to fight Leiberman until Obama gave Leiberman the green light. If anyone should have a problem with anyone, the blogs should be angry with Obama, not Reid.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 00:32:09 AM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Also O/T: It's like clockwork. We win elections, then go after our leadership.

I'm often unclear as to who people would rather have in leadership positions. I know we would all like "progressives" but if you look at who supported Leiberman, your looking at the who's who of our caucus.

I think if Leiberman votes with Dems 100%, I'd be happy to have him stay in the caucus.

by: nrimmer @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 00:47:09 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Its the chairmanship of the Homeland Security committee that people are concerned about

But I think there is a possibility Lieberman might feel like he owes Obama for saving him so he might play ball.

by: conspiracy @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 06:33:13 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

did Feingold vote for Lieberman?

usually he's my indicator of sanity in the caucus, I will be disappointed if he did..

by: Conniver @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 07:26:05 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Feingold can be infuriating at times

Note his votes in favor of Ashcroft and John Roberts.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:15:11 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Don't tell DKos

I brought Feingold's vote for Ashcroft up...they got testy with me.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 09:16:57 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I think i read somewhere his philosophy about appointments is

That if they are qualified he votes for them not matter what their ideology. He drew the line at Alito for some reason, but I gather from those two votes and other judicial appointments he has approved in the past of conservative judges, is that the victor goes the spoils. You win the presidency and they are qualified they get the job.

Roberts we might not like but is qualified. Now Ashcroft on the other hand..........

by: Conniver @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 09:21:12 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Yes that's his philosophy

I love how some people overlook that

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 09:54:33 AM CST

[ Parent ]

He's principled

But in reality the more qualified Gonzo turned out to be a far bigger disaster as AG than Ashcroft.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 11:40:25 AM CST

[ Parent ]

only

for us to kick him out in 2012 if he run's for re-election.

If Obama won't punish him for being a traitor to the party, well then it'll be up to us come 2012. Do you guys think he'll bother running? He wont try to run as a Democrat in the primary will he? It'd probably look good for his own re-election chances if he did.

by: Andrew @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 09:10:31 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

As long as...

We don't have another Ned Lamont-esque candidate who blows it after winning the primary, I think we can DEFINITELY win next time! When I saw Lamont on MSNBC last night, I kept wondering to myself why we blew it. He stated so well why Connecticut's fed up with Traitor Joe. Now if only we can find a candidate they can vote for...

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:20:57 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Lamont didn't blow it

He won the Democratic primary, which was incredible. He only lost the general election because Lieberman got republican votes.

by: duffman @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:50:15 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Well

Going on vacation after he won the primary probably wasn't the wisest move.

by: James L. @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 13:41:56 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

He did?

That was stupid.

But in reply to duffman's point, yeah, Schlesinger (the actual R nominee) got like 9% of the vote, and looked more a third-party candidate.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:04:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Probably not the crucial

Even if Lamont had been there, it wouldn't have made a difference. He might have lost the news cycles a little less badly. But without a viable Republican candidate (and with a Republican establishment actively trying to prevent that happening) and without the time to validate Lamont and invalidate Lieberman to low-info Democratic candidates, he was sunk before he began.

by: Englishlefty @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 16:17:20 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Because the Dems didn't really give Lamont any support

Really, while the Democratic leadership gave a bland "we support the Democratic nominee for senate" thing, the fact is Lamont was given very little institutional support from either the state or the national Democratic party.

Saying that Lamont blew it assumes that it was necessarily his doing or actions that cost him the seat coughGeorgeAllen*cough* when it was simply that he pretty much running with weights being tied to him.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

by: DGM @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 12:17:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

They need a new target...

To shoot at, and they don't have the cajones to pin the tail on Obama. So as usual, they'd rather direct all their anger at Reid. Whatever. I'm still angry over Traitor Joe being let off the hook. But really, I won't be trying to primary Reid or give Obama a hard time just over this.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:34:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

No doubt.

There's no use at this point considering we haven't even started to pass our legislation (EFCA, ENDA, universal healthcare). If Reid drops the ball after January, I'll start to get annoyed.

I've got to give some credit to Reid for leading us through the 2004-2006 sessions where he beat back the Schavio crap and ANWR drilling. He's a fighter and had Frist on the ropes a few times most notably during the Iraq war debates - http://www.washingtonpost.com/... .

by: nrimmer @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:46:35 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Agreed

Let's wait until everyone's sworn in and has/hasn't done something before we dig out the pitchforks.

BTW, I just visited TPM and found some very choice description of DKos. The best one likened it to more to a megachurch than a blog. While I respect Markos for what he's achieved, not only for progressives but also his own personal achievements, he is something of a dogmatic hothead with little patience for how government actually works. It also doesn't help when he encourages bigger hotheads like Armando (whom I detest) and others with shrillness like this. It's like throwing chum into the pirhana-infested Amazon.

Sorry to be so O/T about this, but this whole Lieberman fiasco has soured my already-sour view of two large parts of the blogosphere. That, however, does not extend to the fine folks here at Swing State Project, Senate Guru, the various state blogs (notably Raising Kaine and Buckeye State Blog), and TPM. DKos and MyDD, however, can take a hike.

by: corran horn @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 11:50:16 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Admit they were wrong

NEVER!

They never liked Reid, so it's easy to attack him, to attack Obama means having to say "Oh gee maybe he wasn't so different after all"

btw, I'm not attacking Obama, I supported him, still do, and have no problem with any of this...I just think it's funny that DKos had this fantasy about Obama that they're now realizing isn't holding up.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 09:18:34 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

O/T: That's why

I stopped visiting DailyKos (not this specific incident but some very similar one). Not only does the shrillness get tiresome but it is alarmingly naive. While I would have preferred that Lieberman get the axe, I also understand why they did not axe him. First off, his fate has been sealed and is basically a "dead man walking". I'd say leave it the voters to dispense with him. Secondly, the Senate isn't called The World's Most Exclusive Club for nothing. While I may not like it, I also know that changing 200 years of clubby traditions is no easy feat. All this talk of primarying Reid (not that I take it seriously) smacks of childish petulence--something DK is notorious for. BTW, did Jerome Armstrong of MyDD ever cease his concern trolling of Obama. The more I think on it, the more I think the blogosphere is what needs a change of leadership.

by: corran horn @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 11:24:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I'm glad your expressing your anger.

I love SSP so much because individuals like you and me are never drowned in the shear numbers as is the case on other sites. I'm glad your expressing your anger and I completely understand where you are coming from. I've been there with all of them, MyDD, Dkos, you name it.

I will say that I think that the other blogs are leaps and bounds ahead of traditional media. Just take this rec'd dairy for example- http://www.dailykos.com/storyo... .

This dairy has made it to the top of the list over at Dkos and it's main point is an absolutely brutal critique of kos and the kossack community over the Leiberman drama. There's something to be admired about a site and a webmaster that allows, even encourages, such open criticism. No matter how angry we get at our allies in the netroots, I always have to remind myself just what great friends they've been to all Democrats. We truly are a better party as a result of their efforts.

by: nrimmer @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 11:48:17 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Thanks so much! :)

Another reason I love SSP and the state blogs. People are so much more courteous. :)

While I'm an adult and understand that foul language is sometimes necessary to vent frustration, I'm glad that David and James have been able to maintain such a civil atmosphere. Props to the both of you!

by: corran horn @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 11:52:59 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

if nyc term limits are abolished, couldn't he run for mayor again?

rudy vs buyburg,i'd love to see that.

being normal is for the mediocre.

by: doug_tuttle @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 00:32:36 AM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Rudy Giuliani will probably never run for anything again...

Ever. He seems to have moved so far to the right that I don't think he'd be able to win statewide again. After his spectacularly lethargic run for the presidency, I don't think he'll put himself back in electoral politics.

The NY GOP is in poor shape if he's their white knight dream candidate. Maybe they can get whatshisname who got creamed by Spitzer to run again.

by: NCDem @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:54:02 AM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Correction

He's never won a statewide election. Anywhere. And never will.

by: NCDem @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:54:57 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Good numbers

This is Giuliani's high point. Can anybody seriously say that his numbers will go up once voters are reintroduced to him again? He might drive up an opponent's negatives, but he's neither smart (except in a rather unnerving hyenaesque manner) nor likeable so I think his ceiling is 50.1% at best.

by: Englishlefty @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 03:14:22 AM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Pffff, Siena Polls, bah!

They ALWAYS have the best results for Republicans. Look at their record during the presidential campaign! You might as well subtract 5 points from Rudy and add 5 to Paterson if you want to look at how it would really shake out.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

by: X Stryker @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 07:13:59 AM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Will Rudy ever go away?

Has he ever thought that we're sick & tired of his sleazy campaigns? After the EPIC FAIL that was his Presidential Campaign, he now needs to go into retirement & stop bothering us. It's not like we'll let him win any kind of elected office ever again!

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:40:39 AM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

did they poll Bloomburg

I have a feeling he would win, even as an independent.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:03:47 AM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I know this is governor but for senate

Who do you think Bloomberg would caucus with if he won a Senate Seat in New York, hypothetically?

by: Conniver @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:16:38 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Whoever made the best offer

He is a businessman.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

by: X Stryker @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 13:06:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

That's probably...

The ONLY way Bloomberg can win. I mean, wouldn't just the GOP label slash at least 10% off his electoral ceiling? This is New York, after all. If he runs for Governor or Senate, I bet he'll do it as an Independent.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

by: atdleft @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:23:57 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Bloomberg May Not Want It

Running a state, or serving in a legislature, is very different from running New York City. Bloomberg is a manager, and New York City mayors have a lot more authority to do what they want to do unilaterally. Being governor involves a lot more give and take with the state legislature than being mayor involves with the city council. And being a legislator gives one little independent authority at all.

I'm speculating, but it seems to me like he likes having a vision and putting it into action. If so, there are better ways for him to do so than serving at another level of government, so he may not be interested in another elected position.

by: dsimon @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 14:27:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

NY-Gov: Early Line Favors Paterson Over Rudy | 37 comments