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AK-Sen: Begich Wins

by: James L.

Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 9:48 PM EST

In case you didn't hear, the Associated Press and the Anchorage Daily News have called the Alaska Senate race for Democrat Mark Begich. Begich is currently sitting on a lead of 3,724 votes, with only about 2,500 special absentees outstanding.

Begich is now the first Democrat since Maurice "Mike" Gravel to represent Alaska in the United States Senate.

Update: Oh, I forgot to mention: Happy birthday, Ted! Yes, Mr. Stevens turned 85 today. And what a birthday it was!

James L. :: AK-Sen: Begich Wins

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AK-Sen: Begich Wins | 44 comments

hopefully

he doesn't make a quixotic run for President as a nutcase libertarian in 2036, when I'll be a scary 45 years old. Ugh. Sent a shiver down my spine there.

Oh, first comment. Bragging rights.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 20:51:47 PM CST

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hahaha

I thought the EXACT same thing... lol Excpet I think I'll be closer to 55... DIE!

by: Venslor @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 21:11:29 PM CST

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In 2036...

I'll be 46, the same age that Barack Obama was at the start of the primary season..

On a lighter note....

Go Begich!!

1 more to the Employee Free Choice Act!!

As the Grandson of strong former union members, I really feel this is an important reform.

by: liberal intellectual @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 21:40:52 PM CST

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Heh

I'm still counting on teh Gravelanche, don't you know? He's primed to win on the [Insert Party Name] Ticket in [insert year here] :D

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

by: DGM @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 22:13:46 PM CST

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I was thinking that too!

I'll be a scary 53 in 2036.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

by: californianintexas @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:19:37 AM CST

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You think that is scary....

I'll be 65 by then!

by: coreyTX @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:06:22 AM CST

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Christ, I didn't realise SSP tended this young

I'll be 49 by then. I'd been assuming I was one of the youngest bar Populista, but evidently I'm a greybeard here.

I always assumed you were much older. Not sure why. Maybe just because I've only met one young Southerner and the image normally portrayed is of older, more middle age individuals.

Then again, I've actually one met one Southerner, so my expectations don't exactly appear to match reality.

by: Englishlefty @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:50:06 AM CST

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Recount

Is this a big enough margin so that a recount is NOT paid for by the State?
Did any down ballot races in the Alaska legislature change? It looks to me like a couple of Democrats are now slightly ahead.

by: ABowers @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 20:52:57 PM CST

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Required margin is 0.5% or less

which is about 1500 votes IIRC--someone else dig up the math or do it on the spot; I don't remember where someone posted that.

The minimum margin for Begich, at this point, is about +1200. So if my 1500 number is right, then he's got a great chance of avoiding a state-paid recount.

Suck it, Norm.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 20:55:07 PM CST

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The margin

is almost 1.2%, so if Stevens wants a recount, he'll have to pay for it. Contrary to what has been reported elsewhere, there is no "automatic recount" in Alaska. If the margin is smaller than 0.5%, the loser or another party can petition the state for a recount, which the state will be obligated to pay for. Ballotpedia has more.

by: James L. @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 20:57:29 PM CST

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In fact...

Any 10 registered voters can request it!

by: coreyTX @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:07:37 AM CST

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The dream of 60 lives on to die another day

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 21:27:41 PM CST

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Remember when ...

certain bloggers were calling this year's Senate results the biggest disappointment of the election? Well, 58 is pretty dang good, if you ask me! Plus, 59 seems at least a possibility.

by: LanceS @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 21:35:28 PM CST

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Which bloggers where those?

by: James L. @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 21:37:34 PM CST

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The Senate races

went pretty well. Its the House races that dissapointed me a little. I thought we would pick up AK-AL, FL-21, FL-25, IL-10, IN-03, MN-03, MN-06, NE-02 and WA-08 and ended up falling short in all of them, sometimes by big margins.

by: BillNolan @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 21:50:57 PM CST

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House Races

We won about five less than I expected. The biggest disppointments were AK-AL, MN-03, and NJ-07 plus the defeats of Boyda and Cazayoux.

by: jward373 @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 21:57:33 PM CST

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That's a good group of five,

but WA-08 and IL-10 hit me pretty hard too.

by: texas dem @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 23:41:09 PM CST

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Hurting

Yeah, those hurt too. I thought Seals might just make it, but I had a bad feeling about Burner. That house fire was just bad vibes.

by: jward373 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 00:20:55 AM CST

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Cazayoux was a long shot

Cazayoux was a long shot given the third candidate in the race. I think he would have survived except for that.

by: mbraymen @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 23:45:10 PM CST

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the thing is he could have won

Had Jackson not pulled away votes Cazayoux would have had enough to beat Cassidy

by: lordpet8 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 00:17:36 AM CST

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I totally agree

There were so many disappointments house wise. I predicted we would take 25 seats
Hell Even Larry Sabato had his initial predictions from 26 to 35 house seat pickups
Then on the day before he dropped it to just 26!
Something had caused the predicted massive coattails to recede on the Day of Elections

I had tons of disappointments including the ones you listed such as:
Ca 4th with Charlie Brown ( I campaigned in the rain for him too!)
Mn 6th I so wanted Bachmann to taste Defeat
Fl 21st
Wa 8th poor Darcy :( Guess capturing the green river killer is enough to keep a Republican in a blue district
Illinois 10th I was really hoping Obama would have major coattails in his state to knock off Kirk ( the only major mistake I head off was Seal screwing up with the cheap gas idea)

Ps I really hate Micheal Jackson, now that he cost us seat, I hope he gets some sort of punishment from his party

by: lordpet8 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 00:16:36 AM CST

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Jackson Punishment

Maybe they'll make him chair of Homeland Security.

by: sicembears @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 11:34:42 AM CST

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That would be a Thrilling job.

Not to mention that you have now invoked the Comfy Chair, which is an even greater punishment than the Soft Cushions.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 13:33:47 PM CST

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The Senate results

are actually very close to what I predicted, and my predictions of which party would win in the Senate races will be 100% if MN and GA stay GOP. Not saying I want them to, though. GO FRANKEN AND MARTIN!!!

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

by: californianintexas @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:21:34 AM CST

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My House predictions were optimistic.

I was predicting we would take AK-AL, CA-04 (though that's still up in the air), IL-10, MN-03, MN-06, NJ-07, OH-15 (which is also still up in the air), and WA-08.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

by: californianintexas @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:24:10 AM CST

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not to sure with Ca-04

yes its still up in the air, but we'd need a massive turn around in the final ballots to pull this one off

by: lordpet8 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 02:16:30 AM CST

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I was about the same

for senate Predictions
We've still got a better shot in Minnesota than Georgia

as Georgia went the other way when we had Wyche Fowler leading in '92

by: lordpet8 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 02:17:56 AM CST

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A Holy Message

This is God's way of telling Sarah Palin that she is not needed in Washington.

by: jward373 @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 21:54:05 PM CST

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Well

What's Sen. Dan Inouye (D-HI) going to do now that his best friend Stevens is going to be gone?

by: jpsrosa @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 22:08:16 PM CST

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I'm sure he'll think of some things to do...

Now that he will be Chair of Appropriations.

by: liberal intellectual @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 22:15:25 PM CST

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Hopefully retire in two years. n/t

by: Tyler Oakley @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 22:19:04 PM CST

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That my unlikely

like as just mentioned, he is chair of Appropiations now. He was definitely going to retire before but man, that is a mighty spot to be in. He'll probably give it one more term. Which means hopefully Lingle will long have faded from everyone's memory, as well as Ed Case. Hirono for Senate!

by: Andrew @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:20:25 AM CST

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Worth noting

After Walt Minnick's win in Idaho, Alaska was the last remaining state not to have Democratic representation either in the House, Senate, or Governorship.

The symbolism is so gratifying for me.

by: JFM110 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 00:54:34 AM CST

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Same for me. (n/t)

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

by: californianintexas @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:24:31 AM CST

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Very cool

Thanks for pointing out.

by: sicembears @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 11:36:04 AM CST

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With almost all the ballots counted

it looks like Palin/McCain was held under 60 and only beat Obama by 21 points, compared to Kerry's 27 point loss and Gore's 31 point loss. Hey, no one said it would be easy. But at least we're getting Alaska to the realm of competitiveness, and were Palin not on the ticket I would expect us to do much better there.

Young unfortunately skates by on a 5% win. He has seen his winning percentages drop drastically over the past few elections, and maybe next time will be the charm. If he runs again, he is vulnerable.

by: skaje @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:16:07 AM CST

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He's been vulnerable before

He had close run-ins in the early 90s and survived those. And he's never been loved. But Alaska just seems too tied to pork and Republicanism right now (at least while Palin remains in the ascendant).

He leaves office in one of three ways. In a primary, in handcuffs or in a pine box.

by: Englishlefty @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 16:14:20 PM CST

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Perhaps

a long-term goal for us in Alaska is to crash Palin's party.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 17:23:49 PM CST

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Agreed!

How does it feel to have defeat as a birthday present, Ted? :P

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

by: californianintexas @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:25:07 AM CST

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I will be completely satisfied

if this all the Senate seats we get. I really doubt we'll win Georgia, that will have to be 100% GOTV and Obama doesn't seem to be doing enough to turn out the AA vote in particular that could really put Martin over the top.

And MN, we could win a recount, we may not, 58 is still good enough for me. Man, I almost dont want Franken to win the recount, that is all I will see non-stop for months then in this state... I'm already sick of having to listen to this get dragged on and on.

by: Andrew @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:22:40 AM CST

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Speaking of which.....

what kind of timeframe are we looking at for Minnesota? I want my babka dammit!

by: nrimmer @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:50:14 AM CST

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mid december

i think is when it'll be done. i just read somewhere where you can follow recount tallies that come in, granted, they wont mean much until those last few precincts probably. Unless we see huge shifts in precincits fromt heir original totals, which hopefully someone saved somewhere.

by: Andrew @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:16:28 AM CST

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Piling on Stephens?

Now this is funny - even the GOP thinks Uncle Ted is crooked:

Trouble also popped up elsewhere for Stevens on Tuesday. Reps. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and John Campbell (R-Calif.) announced they have requested a probe of some $240 million in earmarks Stevens received this year. In a letter to the House and Senate Appropriations committee chairmen, Flake and Campbell said they want Stevens's earmarks for fiscal 2008 scrutinized before they are granted.
"I would hope that his conviction spurs Congress to examine these earmarks more closely before they are awarded," the two congressman said in a joint statement.

http://thehill.com/campaign-20...

Happy Birthday, Ted!

by: bear83 @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:37:50 AM CST

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Piling on

I didn't see them requesting a probe after Stevens got convicted. Rather, it seems they waited until after he lost re-election. Guess, they didn't want to be on the wrong side of Stevens while he still held a seat on appropriations.

by: sicembears @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 11:39:31 AM CST

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AK-Sen: Begich Wins | 44 comments