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AK-Sen: Begich's Lead Grows to 2,374 Votes

by: James L.

Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 5:25 PM EST


The Alaska Department of Elections has posted an updated count of their hotly-contested Senate race, and Begich has doubled his lead:

Mark Begich (D): 146,286
Ted Stevens (R): 143,912

The Anchorage Daily News reports that more results will be posted between 4 and 5pm Alaska Time. Looks like we'll finally put this sucker to bed today.
James L. :: AK-Sen: Begich's Lead Grows to 2,374 Votes
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AK-Sen: Begich's Lead Grows to 2,374 Votes | 66 comments
Begich winning
Another piece of good news:  the difference now exceeds the .5% threshhold in which the state would pay for a recount.  In other words, if Stevens wants a recount, he will have to pay for it unless these numbers change substantially as more votes are counted.  
Not that it would change the results
Since even at 1500 the likelihood that the machines were that wrong is basically 0.  Hell if it were 1500 in MN we'd be saying good night to Franken even with many more votes...
[ Parent ]
yep, say hello
to number 58. Now let's try to get at least one more progressive in. Martin or Franken, but preferably Martin, becuase Chambliss is much worse than Coleman.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
True but Franken would probably be easier to defend in 2014
At least based on state leanings.  But, what the hell?  Let's get them both.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Franken is too controversial
I'm surprised he won this time. He wouldn't be a very popular senator, or a very effective legislator, just a reliable vote.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
You're surprised he won?
He hasn't won anything... at least, not yet.
[ Parent ]
sorry,
brain slip. People have been talking about it so much lately. Reality just left me for a moment. Kind of like Redstate right now.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Disagree
Franken is mainly controversial because of his outspokeness as a progressive and biting satirical criticism of the Bush administration and right wing radio and TV.  I suspect his language as a Senator would be very different than his language as a political commentator and the controversy factor would be much, much less six years from now, if he somehow pulls out the win [knock on wood].  He'll never win over the Republicans in MN, but I could easily see him winning over the moderates and conservative Democrats enough that he'd be a strong favorite for re-election.
[ Parent ]
Mark Dayton couldn't do it
I don't see how Franken is any different than Jesse Ventura, except more controversial. Republicans in the south are already frothing at the mouth at the opportunity to attack the national Democratic party over having a senator who openly mocked the crucifiction of Jesus and sold bits of his body as soveigniers at his presidential library gift shop. Franken is radioactive. You'd have to be dreaming if you think he could get popular. It's amazing he managed to get to 40% this year and really speaks to how much people in MN dislike Coleman, but even then nearly twenty percent of the people had to vote for Barkley, being unable to vote for either of the other two.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I dunno...
I've seen weirder things happen. Remember that California reelected a Governor in 2002 with a 25% approval rating... And in 2003 & 2006, we elected a Governator best known for doing action movies, smoking pot, groping women, and constantly flip-flopping on marriage equality. And in blue states like New Jersey, not so popular Democratic Senators always get reelected by comfortable margins.

Now don't get me wrong, Minnesota isn't quite like California or New Jersey. Still, I think it's blue enough to make room for Franken.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

[ Parent ]
New Jersey
hates everybody as a rule, but usually votes for the Democrat because "they won't be as bad as the other guy".

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
25%?
That's nothing.  Blagojevich is seriously considering running again in 2010 and his approval is 4%.  The crazy thing is there may not be a republican who could beat him in Illinois.  Thankfully I doubt he could win a democratic primary.
[ Parent ]
What about Kirk?
I think he would go for Blago over the open senate seat if he by some miracle wins the primary. Blago would be a much easier target.  
[ Parent ]
If Kirk leaves IL-10
that seat will easily be ours.  
[ Parent ]
Dayton?
What does Dayton have to do with anything?  You lost me with that reference.  As to Ventura, there are lots of differences--one was an Independent, one is a Democrat.  One was governor, one hopes to be Senator.  I'm not trying to be flippant there--Ventura had to be an executive and that's much more difficult to do effectively without prior experience and without a party to support you.  Franken is also extremely intelligent and ran a good campaign considering the baggage he admittedly does have.  You're wrong about Coleman's popularity.  His approval/disapproval ratings were not particularly bad before the campaign began--the last one I could find before 2008 had him at 53-39; that's actually pretty good for a Republican in a blue state.  As to Republicans in the South, I was not aware that they could vote in Minnesota's senatorial elections.  ;)
[ Parent ]
right before election day
I saw a poll with is approval/disapproval numbers at 38-58, which means they were not good at the end, when it counted.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Why the Change?
This change in Coleman's approval/disapproval ratings is precisely why Franken was a good candidate and can win re-election if he wins this year.  He went after Coleman and had the financial resources to do so.  Coleman went negative as well of course but Franken had the resources to fight back.  That's what drove down Coleman's ratings.  Some no name Democrat in Minnesota would likely have been swamped by Coleman's millions.
[ Parent ]
yeah
but a real Democrat, a Democrat who had actually lived in the state, and was less controversial and more normal, would have won huge this time around. Coleman's support was an inch deep and a mile wide.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
a REAL democrat?
WTF does that mean?  I'v lived in St Paul for about 25 years and I know Al Franken has been very involved for at least the last 3 years as well as growing up in St Louis Park and he doesn't need to prove he's a real democrat if you've read his writings or listened to his show or seen one campaign ad or speech.

If he wins, he will be a very strong candidate for reelection unless President Obama becomes so unpopular that the GOP is able to hurt Franken by saying he voted 90% with Pres Obama:)  We elected a decidedly unsenatorial left-wing college professor twice(Wellstone) an airhead right wing news anchor (Rod Grams), a professional wrestler for gov, and a less than solid guy in Dayton (good liberal though, thank you).  Franken, who is tremendously smart, and a phenomonal fundraiser with a very solid grassroot campaign, will be fine if he doesn't make a significant mistake (and he has been very disciplined in this campaign.  I appreciate most of what you say Arkdem, but I think you've completely missed the boat on this.

I hope we get to argue about it during his reelection in 2014.

[ Parent ]
well, look at how that turned
out. Ventura was so unpopular he couldn't have won reelection, Dayton faced the same problem and retired rather than face voters again. Rod Grams lost by a large margin to Mark Dayton, and Wellstone didn't get above 50% in either of his two elections, (though he was set to beat Coleman). Plus, their's a big difference between being a liberal college professor, and a liberal comedian, one's controversial and one is respectable and intelligent. Bad analagy, and bad examples over all as all but Wellstone proved unable to be reelected.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
the examples are good
in that they prove Minnesotans are decidedly quirky in their tastes.  dayton didn't run because he made some mistakes in office and is a very uncomfortable campaigner.  grams lost because his republican positions were out of the mainstream for minnesotans and because he was dumb as a stump.  ventura would have lost because he said silly things, was a commentator for XFL, and became comletely irrelevant at the state capitol.

wellstone won twice and would have won a third time because he was thoughtful, smart and passionate and as a democrat he was a little more in the mainstream of Minnesota.

you're suggesting that franken will be controversial or that he is not a REAL democrat or a REAL minnesotan.  but both listening to his show and seeing him speak numerous times, i don't think he has been controversial and i don't expect him to be controversial in the senate if he is lucky enough to be elected.  now he will be a target, as a freshman senator who won with less than 50% would always be, but your worries are not based on anything that i can see except the fact that he has said controversial things as a comedian.

reagan, bono, and schwarzenegger have all made their own reputations after being silly movie stars and a guy as smart as franken should be capable of the same.

[ Parent ]
Any Basis?
What's your evidence that any old Democrat could have beaten Coleman "huge?"  You got polls?  Fundraising numbers?  Perhaps some no-name Minnesotan political commentators' off hand remarks?  Maybe you're looking at the Maine Senate race where a less controversial and more normal Democrat won huge?  Oh yeah, that didn't work out so great there, did it?  Sorry, Ark Dem, but you've provided absolutely nothing to back up your opinions so far.
[ Parent ]
Tom Allen
ran a terrible campaign and went at Collins with the goves on. He didn't attack her for her conservative record, nor did he even shore up his base. 39% pitiful. Any hard-hitting Democrat would have beaten Coleman. State Senator Steve Kelly, Former Congressman Luther, Rep. Betty McCollum, they all could have won.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Yes...
I also want them both! And now, I feel fairly good about our chances in both states. :-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Yes, But . . .
Martin is good and Chambliss is worse than Coleman.  But, part of me relishes the idea of the wingnut heads exploding at the thought of Senator Franken--who has been an excellent and outspoken progressive.  If I only could pick one to win, I think I'd go with Franken.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I like Martin better as a candidate and as a politician, and in a vacuum, I'd rather see him in the Senate than Franken, but the fact is, he'd be under a lot of pressure to take bad (i.e. conservative) votes on a lot of issues in order to shore up his re-election chances. Franken would have a lot more latitude to vote progressively.
[ Parent ]
Yep, yep, yep...
As much as I like Martin and see him as a more likely Senator, I also realize that Franken is blessed with a blue state. I'm hoping BOTH pull it off this year. But if they both win, I'd have to peg Franken as the instant favorite for reelection in 2014 while Martin not quite so. Why? Minnesota's a blue state while Georgia's still red. And when we consider this, we'll have to realize that Martin will be under FAR MORE PRESSURE to go Blue Dog than Franken.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
More Democrats Means Better Democrats
Lots of people on the blogs like to hate on Mary Landrieu and the two Democratic Senators from Arkansas for a series of deplorable votes. But those lonesome three were the ONLY Democratic Senators we had from the ex-Confederacy or almost all of the Border States until Jim Webb and Claire McCaskill got elected. Landrieu, Lincoln, and Pryor were very exposed considering that there were no Democratic Senators at all from Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, and Missouri.

Now with Webb, McCaskill, Mark Warner, and Kay Hagan helping to provide cover and solidarity, I expect that we will see the Arkansas and Louisiana Senators voting more often with the other Democrats. If we can pick up Jim Martin, too, that will make it even easier and more likely for all of them to edge a bit to the left in their voting during the next Congress.

That's what makes Jim Martin's election important, maybe more important than winning another good Senator in the blue Midwest.

And if this Democrat thing gets to be contagious, and we pick up another seat or two or three in North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Missouri, Kentucky, or maybe even Oklahoma next time, then voting like a national Democrat will be much much easier for the members of our Southern wing.  

[ Parent ]
You forget Bill Nelson, who has had his seat since 2000.

[ Parent ]
Oops
Yeah, I forgot him. Or mistook him for a Repub.

But it doesn't change much. He's votes scairdy like the others, but he may actually be more conservative than them. I expect less improvement from him than I do from Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, and Mark Pryor.

[ Parent ]
Not quite.
Florida had Bill Nelson.

But you're right about all the other ones.  Well, excluding Georgia, which had Cleland until 2002 and Miller until 2004.  But Miller is a Republican (take that, Zell!) and we all know why Cleland isn't in the Senate anymore.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

[ Parent ]
Of course
and we all know why Cleland isn't in the Senate anymore.  

It's obvious.  Max Cleland is really a terrorist conspirator right up there with Bin Laden.  Don't let his countless medals for bravery in Vietnam and loss of three limbs for his country fool ya.

[ Parent ]
We had John Edwards
We had a Democratic Senator in North Carolina until 2004. Fritz Hollings stepped down in South Carolina, Bob Graham in Florida, and John Breaux in Louisiana that year as well. We got crushed in the South on '04, with Erskine Bowles in NC, Inez Tenenbaum in SC, Betty Castor in FL, and Chris John in LA all going down. (The closest race was in Kentucky, with Daniel Mongiardo almost knocking off the incumbent Bunning.)

So wasn't that the nadir, 2004 to 2006? That was the period when Mary Landrieu had every right to be scared to death that she was gonna be next. From that low, with the elections in '06 and now '08, we've made a slow but steady recovery down South.

[ Parent ]
I think we're settling in
We are now very competitive in quite a few southern states at the statewide level (FL, VA, NC, AR).  Republicans still have a solid grip on the rest of the southern states (TX, MS, AL, GA, TN, SC, LA).  Things are probably only going to get better in the future.  Demographics are trending in our favot in some of those republican dominated states, such as Texas, Mississippi and Georgia, but it will take a few more cycles for dems to get really competitive there.
[ Parent ]
Nibble at the edges
I'm hoping we can pick up seats in the Border States sooner than in the Dixiecrat states that Strom Thurmond and Barry Goldwater carried. Kentucky and Missouri look pretty good in 2010, along with Florida and North Carolina.

Seems like Louisiana is in flux, neither trending red (elect Bobby Jindal) nor blue (re-elect Mary Landrieu). We would have held onto the Baton Rouge House seat, if not for the stab in the back. And I hope we can pick up the House seat in Shreveport. When Dollar Bill heads off into the sunset, or prison, whatever, it will help Democrats in the state who have been tarred by that ugly stain. Then surely Sinator Vitter is at risk in 2010 as well.

Nate Silver has shown that by demographics, no other state is so much like another as South Carolina is like North Carolina. So I don't see the Repub grip there being too solid after all.

And as for Georgia, we shall know pretty soon about the trendline there.  

Even Alabama could crack if the Don Siegelman case breaks open the way I think it could, with enough dirt and drek to cover every Repub office holder in the state.

[ Parent ]
Congratulations Senator Begich!
Stevens will need every penny he has to pay his lawyers.  Begich has this one won and there will not be a recount.  
[ Parent ]
My original prediction was Begich wins by 2568
I'm sticking with it:  Begich wins by 2568.  :)

It's outside the 0.5%

You'll note my post on 11:30 pm EST:
http://www.swingstateproject.c...


wow,
gotta hand it to you their. Uncanny.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
It would have been even more impressive
had you made that guess before Nov. 4th! :)
[ Parent ]
well,
he used the general election trends of the polling places still out and plugged in some numbers for that result.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Don't get me wrong
It's still impressive! But I'll have to dig through the predictions contest thread soon to see if anyone here actually nailed this race before the votes came in.
[ Parent ]
I know I was off
by about 5 points, I was going with a 53-47 split.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Looking through it
Only one guy (bpmckennaworld) was close -- he guessed Begich by half a percent. A couple of others guess Begich by 3 or 4 point margins, but almost everyone else (out of about 150 entries) was further off -- often a lot further off.

My private prediction was the same as yours -- 53-47 Begich.

[ Parent ]
on the other
hand I was the only one to call a narrow upset for Perriello, while somehow missing Nye. I also got infected by the strong pessimism of most of the pople here regarding Kanjorski. I maintained for months that he was fine, but no one else would entertain than notion, and I eventually got won over. He won about what I thought he win by early on, 52-48. I think he'll retire at his own pace, probably in 2012 so that his district can be split up between Carney and Dent, with Carney getting Scranton and Monroe back in his district, while losing ultra-Republican central and north central Pennsylvania counties that even voted for Sherwood after his whole choking his lover incident.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
It's true!!!
No one made that challenge!  :)

Everyone was guessing a shoe-in for both the house and senate race!

[ Parent ]
I'm not counting...
On victory yet, but I'm liking our chances that this will be Dem Seat #58! I'm just waiting on pins & needles for the final numbers! :-D

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
any eskimo business group (or other groups)
ready with the money Ted Stevens will need for the recount
There is no update on Frank Padavan
the R state senator from NY leading by a narrow margin.

Where can we get a daily update? A win here may decide how CD's are redrawn in 2010.

Awright, Begich!
One down, two to go!

My Can Of Contemplation is now open to all for perusal.
Up by 3700 now
Is that all of the votes to be counted today? Are there enough overseas to potentially overcome this deficit?
3724
and more importantly:  1.18%!
[ Parent ]
AP has called it for Begich
Congratulations, Senator Begich!
#58, baby!
[ Parent ]
Yeah
We finally did it!
[ Parent ]
Begich lead by 1.8% now
3,724 vote lead.  #58 is in the bag.  Time for Mark to head to DC.
Get Berkowitz in
Now that we know we can win in Alaska, Ethan Berkowitz seems like the best candidate to take out Murkowski in two years, right? He seems like he's in the same mold as Begich--young, new, progressive, popular, a good face for our Party, etc.
He couldn't beet Young, who's under federal
investigation.  There's no way he's beating Murkowski.
[ Parent ]
Heh, thats right I'm sorry to say
It took a 7-count felony conviction just to get the republican nominee to barely lose to a top-notch democrat in a very democratic year.  Why on earth do you think Murkowski is even slightly vulnerable when she seems to be the only republican in Alaska not under investigation for something?  Sorry, we have zero chance of winning there in 2010.
[ Parent ]
I disagree
People in Alaska obviously don't care if you're under investigation or not. Stevens' long-time supporters were going to vote for him no matter what. He got beat by a better candidate. Plain and simple. It doesn't matter how much he won by. Murkowski is not popular. But, like Stevens, Young has his loyal undivided supporters. I don't see Murkowski having that kind of following.
[ Parent ]
I disagree. I think it was the convictions and
nothing else that sunk Stevens.  Had he not been convicted Begich would have lost.  The state is uber Republican and is not going to turn out a Republican without extreme provocation and an excellent challenger.  Even then, he only won by a few thousand votes.
[ Parent ]
Actually it does matter
A top-tier candidate beating a convicted felon by less than 1% is a pretty good sign that Alaska isn't ready to elect democrats statewide unless there are extreme circumstances.
[ Parent ]
But Stevens is no ordinary Republican
Again, this is like Robert Byrd losing re-election in West Virginia. This is absolutely huge. Murkowski doesn't have anywhere near the statewide clout or near-universal love that Stevens did.
[ Parent ]
Coattails
Are another factor no one has mentioned yet. Stevens and Young ran in a presidential year when a native daughter was on the ticket. That definitely had to help both of them a little at least. Take those two factors away two years from now and it's more reason to coax Berkowitz into the race. Those coattails may have pushed Young over the top in his race.
[ Parent ]
On the other hand
Murkowski only has one term. Stevens was an institution in the state. Half the state was named after him. Think Robert Byrd in West Virginia.
[ Parent ]
That's my point
It's more like a regular Senate race in two years with a vulnerable incumbent facing a strong Democrat.
Berkowitz got around 45 percent against Young. He'll do better than that against Murkowski.
Steven's trial had absolutely no impact on this race, although we'd like to think it did. Begich was ahead almost from the time he got in, and in the closing weeks the margin closed like it would with any longtime incumbent. He just won by less than we thought he would becuause of Stevens' felony conviction.
Stevens and Young are institutions in the state.
[ Parent ]
Too lazy to read everything but AP calls it for Begich!!!
AK-Sen: Begich's Lead Grows to 2,374 Votes | 66 comments

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