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FL-Sen: Martinez in Terrible Shape

by: James L.

Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 3:52 PM EST

Quinnipiac has released a new poll today testing the 2010 waters in Florida, and their numbers confirm what we've known for a long time: GOP Sen. Mel Martinez is in rough shape as his first term expires.

Only 36% believe that Martinez deserves to be re-elected, while 38% of voters say he does not. In a match-up against "the Democratic candidate", Martinez only pulls in 36% of the vote to the Democrat's 40%. His favorable rating is similarly lackluster: 31-28, with a plurality (37%) saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion of the man. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown calls these numbers "not awful", but that's only true by perhaps a hair's width of difference. They're certainly not numbers that provide an incumbent with a sense of comfort two years out from his first re-election.

Of course, an opportunity like this one will only pan out if Dems can recruit a solid candidate -- for my money, I think I'll take state CFO Alex Sink. Sink has the highest name recognition and favorable rating of all the potential Senate candidates tested in this poll (Reps. Allen Boyd, Kendrick Meek, and state Senator-elect Dan Gelber being the others), but there are numerous other options available on the table right now.

James L. :: FL-Sen: Martinez in Terrible Shape

Tags: FL-Sen, Polls, (All Tags)

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FL-Sen: Martinez in Terrible Shape | 20 comments

Argh

Why couldn't they have done head to heads?

Sink is by far the best candidate if she runs for anything. If not I think our strongest candidate would be Ron Klein followed by Kathy Castor.

by: Populista @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 15:19:01 PM CST

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Bottom of the list for me?

Allen Boyd. For a lot of reasons.

by: James L. @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 15:22:47 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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I doubt Boyd is even considering it anyway

If he wanted to run for Senate he would have in 2004. He's four years older now and has more power than he's ever had in the House. He won't leave all that to try his luck in a Senate race.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 16:06:32 PM CST

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Agreed

Thankfully I doubt he's considering.

Also, what's with a newly elected state senator considering running? Seriously. Do your job before you start looking for a promotion.

by: Populista @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 22:59:09 PM CST

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He's a former House minority leader

He was term limited out of the State House and went for the State Senate instead, but Jeb Bush has previously tipped him for Governor, so I guess he merits a mention.

Still, I tend to agree with you that he should probably stick where he is until at least 2012. No need to go McClintock on us.

by: Englishlefty @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:42:03 AM CST

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I think Sink, Castor, and Klein would be great candidates

Heck, I think even Jim Davis could make a run of it.

by: andgarden @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 16:10:37 PM CST

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OT: Begich expands his lead

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 16:23:57 PM CST

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I'll take her for Governor in

2014, and either Ron Klein or Kathy Castor for for Senate. Castor preferabley, because she comes from a more Republican area, (Pinellas and Hillsborough), while Broward and Miami-Dade are soldily Democratic.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 17:15:18 PM CST

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Castor is deserving of a re-run

She lost a tossup last time because 2004 was an aweful year for Florida Dems and Dems in general really. I'd rather Sink or Klein get the nod, but if they passed I wouldn't mind seeing Castor give it another try. Many in Florida already have buyers remorse for electing do-nothing Mel Martinez.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 18:34:56 PM CST

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Castor

Chad,

The Castor who lost to Mel Martinez in 2004 is Kathy Castor's mother, Betty.

by: Vadranor @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 22:13:32 PM CST

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Oops wrong Castor

Either one would probably make it a good race in any case.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 07:02:47 AM CST

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Wexler!

No he's not too liberal to win statewide. His impressive record of accomplishment makes it ok for him to be that liberal. And since Martinez sucks, and he's unpopular, now is the best time to run a liberal Dem statewide.

by: duffman @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 18:21:52 PM CST

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Actually he is

It's more style than substance really. Similar to what we see in Minnesota. Al Franken really isn't more liberal than Amy Klobuchar, but Klobuchar is incredibly popular with 60%+ favorables and Franken's are in the 30's. Same I think would be the deal with Wexler. His "in your face" style of liberalism wouldn't sell well statewide in Florida, while someone like Ron Klein, almost as liberal as Wexler, would fare much better.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 18:32:22 PM CST

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Worked for Wellstone and Feingold

In your face liberalism isn't a deal breaker (and Wisconsin is almost as swingy as Florida,) it just requires a winning personality and a less interesting opponent.

I don't know if Wexler could win - all I've really seen of him was Colbert and he wasn't absolutely sparkling there - but I don't think that quietism is actually an aid for liberals.

If nobody remembers who you are, it's easy for your opponent to run against your record. If you have a liberal but popular persona, they can't get so nasty.

by: Englishlefty @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 08:45:43 AM CST

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I'm not too familiar

With Wellstone, but being a Wisconsinite I know Russ real well. And while he's often as Liberal as it gets, he has a very calm demeanor which plays really well in Wisconsin. Plus, he's a budget hawk and his strong advocacy of civil liberties plays well with Libertarian Republicans.

It doesn't seem like Wexler has a lot of those qualities.

by: safi @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 15:05:32 PM CST

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Alan Grayson!

Alan Grayson has got to be our best incoming Congressman. If he delivers what he promised, a hard-hitting investigation against military contractors, then we should immediately promote him to the Senate so he can have more power, and give him Lieberman's chairmanship.

by: duffman @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 18:24:04 PM CST

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can't run for congress

and immediately turn around and run for Senate. It doesn't work that way.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 18:25:18 PM CST

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Ya, way too soon

Grayson scored an amazing, enexpected primary win then an equally impressive win in the general for congress this year, but he's not ready for Senate.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 18:28:23 PM CST

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lies, you can!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R...

Introducing Rod Grams, :) He didn't last very long as Senator though ;)

by: Andrew @ Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:10:54 AM CST

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