Premium Sponsor


Featured Sponsor


Our Sponsors


Ad Networks

Advertise Liberally

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

AK-Sen: Begich Lead Up to 1,061

by: Crisitunity

Fri Nov 14, 2008 at 8:00 PM EST


More vote counts have been released in the Alaska Senate race, and they show Mark Begich building slightly on his 814-point lead from yesterday.

Mark Begich (D): 137,527 (47%)
Ted Stevens (R): 136,466 (47%)
Bob Bird (AIP): 11,933 (4%)
Fredrick Haase (L): 2,215 (0%)
Ted Gianoutsos (NA): 1,218 (0%)

It's unclear if there's going to be a second wave of results for the day (according to the release schedule, this should be all for today), but if this is everything for today, then Begich is in really good shape. Today was the day for the counting from the Mat-Su Valley (home turf for Sarah Palin and the state's most conservative core).

Today the state expects to count all absentee and questioned ballots left from the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and northern and western Alaska. Elections officials will also count most, if not all, Fairbanks ballots today. Tuesday is the ballot count for Anchorage and Southeast, where the majority of outstanding votes lie.

If Begich emerged from Mat-Su counting day with more rather than fewer votes, with areas like more Begich-friendly areas still on the table, then he's starting to look like he's in the clear. The question is starting to be whether he can get above the 0.5% threshold to avoid a state-paid recount.

UPDATE: It looks like a few more votes trickled in; at 11 pm Eastern, the lead is now 1,022 votes.
Crisitunity :: AK-Sen: Begich Lead Up to 1,061
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
AK-Sen: Begich Lead Up to 1,061 | 32 comments
1,022 now - 3:56 PM
new totals

138,959
137,937

Still good...
If the Mat-Su results couldn't help Stevens cut Begich's lead from yesterday, then Stevens is screwed. Today is likely the best single day of reporting for him between now & the final round of ballots. If Begich ends up increasing his lead from yesterday, then Stevens needs to get ready to enter his political coffin. ;-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
I like how the AIP
got 4% of the vote. But seriosuly. If Mat-Su has come in and Begich increased his lead the race is over. A recount is not going to overthrow a 1000-1500 vote margin, especially out of only 250,000 cast. 206 out of 2.5 million, maybe. But not the margin of error in counting here is just not on Steven's side, and may even end up adding votes to Begich rather than taking them away.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
Bird with the steal! Wins the game for Begich!
Sounds like a nice headline to me. :)
[ Parent ]
As a Celtics fan
too bad Bird's first name isn't Larry

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions
[ Parent ]
A BIGGER Begich Lead??!!
Really??!! Yippee! We're SO close now to Dem Senate Seat #58. ;-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
Whoa - check out state house district 7
I think we were behind in that race before absentees.  That would be another Dem pickup.  Every vote counts!

House District 7
9 of 9 precincts reporting

Kassel, Karl DEM 4,999 49%
Kelly, Mike REP 5,000 49%


OMG!
The Alaska drama never ends, does it? Sarah Palin must be crying in her moose stew now. :-D

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
She is just too perky to let anything bother her

[ Parent ]
Kassel gains
He was behind by 32, now only 1.
[ Parent ]
Not bad
The state House will be 21R/19D if he pulls this one out, 22R/18D if he doesn't.  
[ Parent ]
we are making steady gains in Alaska
just not on the federal level, not yet.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Alaska state senate
Dems already have a good deal of power in the Alaska State Senate.  For the past two years the Dems along with moderate Republicans have had effective control of the AK State Senate.  That will continue following this election, forcing Palin to compromise with Dems in the state legislature on many issues.
[ Parent ]
actually it was one
solid conservative, Linda something, who got into a fight with her party's leadership, and took a deal with dems to give them governing control in exchange for Presidency of the State Senate and a lot more power herself. This certainly helps though.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
took the State Senate.
I wonder how embarrassing that must have been for Palin.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Speaking of State Legislatures
Is there a website that rounds up all of the results for the state legislatures for each state?

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)
[ Parent ]
someone here
did that very recently actually, with a breakdown on the specfic gains in every single state.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Well,
www.ncsl.org shows the breakdown of legislative composition before the election and after the election.
[ Parent ]
That would be it
The best website for state legislatures.  Here's another website that you can find out election results and who represents what district for legislatures in all 50 states.  

ourcampaigns.com

[ Parent ]
Really?!
Wow. I guess Dems aren't in as bad position in Alaska as I thought. Perhaps we should consider running someone legitimate against Palin in 2010?  

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
They didn't quite take the Senate
They won one seat, which took the Senate from an 11-9 Republican margin to a 10-10 tie. But the State Senate was already governed by a coalition of all the Democrats and some of the Republicans, so they just continued that arrangement for the new Senate.

It's worth noting that the Republicans that are part of the Senate coalition are the faction that does not like Palin.

[ Parent ]
Wow - a 1 vote margin
I wonder if there might be a recount...

Not counting this one, the Democrats already have 18 House seats to 21 for the GOP. That's pretty darn close for the AK House.

[ Parent ]
Begich's lead....
...is now down to 1022.

Wasillalanche!

[ Parent ]
Someone Should Write A Book About This....
"The Alaska Senate Suspense"

or something like that.

Counting Mystery
According to the counting schedule provided to us, 11,649 ballots were supposed to be counted today.  But in the Senate race, about 14,000 votes were added today to the candidates' totals.  The Alaska counting process remains shrouded in mystery.
Intrade
Was looking at Intrade and Begich is now up to 97%.  He was at 93% before today's votes came in.  With transaction costs, I'm not sure Begich can go much higher.
Junky education
One of the cool things about being a political junky is all the educational opportunities it offers.  Face it, how many of us had even heard of the Mat-Su valley a few months ago?  Now we know how critical it is that the valley didn't help Stevens!
New Breakdown of Remaining AK Ballots
http://www.elections.alaska.go...

Region 1 (Juneau) Absentees - 8370
Tues, 9 AM

Region 2 (Anchorage) Absentees - 7713
Region 2 (Anchorage) Question - 7996
Tues, 10 AM

24,079 total

All other areas, including the infamous Mat-Su Valley, have been counted.

Stephens would need 52.12%, or 12,551 of the remaining total to overcome Begich's lead if all votes went to those 2 candidates.

In Region 1, Begich leads 54.4% - 45.6% on 58,694 votes counted so far for the 2 major candidates.

In Region 2, Begich leads 50.8% - 49.2% on 108,321 votes counted so far for the 2 major candidates.  

Fairbanks
Is that region complete?

I thought that area's remaining ballots would be counted Monday.

[ Parent ]
If you compare
this document

http://www.elections.alaska.go...

and this one

http://www.elections.alaska.go...

it looks loke Fairbanks (Region3) was finished Friday.

[ Parent ]
Begich is better with absentee than in person.
He should do better than those percentages!
[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Begich Lead Up to 1,061 | 32 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

Talk to your supporters, not tech support. Campaign Engine is the powerful, affordable Progressive Campaign Software.

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Contributing Editor: Crisitunity

SSP's Twitter Feed

SSP on Facebook

SSP's Frappr Map

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

Subscribe to SSP's RSS feed: Subscribe via FeedBurner

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

Partisan Voting Index

House Open Seat Watch

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

2010 Political Calendar

SSP Race Ratings

Senate Race Ratings

Gubernatorial Race Ratings

House Vulnerability Index

Blogroll

Daily Kos
DemConWatch
DLCC Blog
Five Thirty Eight
From The Roots (DSCC)
Hotline On Call
Kicking Ass (DNC)
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Project 2010 (DGA)
The Next Hurrah
Senate Guru
The Stakeholder (DCCC)
The Thicket (NCSL)
Powered by: SoapBlox