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CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread

by: James L.

Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 10:00 AM EST


Our daily series of 2010 threads continues, and today the SSP Recruitment Express is running at full steam through the Golden State.

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited, meaning that many, many Democrats are salivating over the opportunity to take back the Governor's mansion in California. There are a lot of potential names out there for Democrats (including Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, who has already announced his candidacy), but who would you like to see reach for the ring? And for the Republicans, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner seems to be their likeliest candidate, but will more names join the fray? (Paging Tom McClintock...)

On the Senate side, will Schwarzenegger actually challenge Barbara Boxer? It seems a bit unlikely to me at this point, but I guess you never know. If not, will any Republicans of note step forward (and I'm not sure if this guy really counts)?

And here's an interesting wrinkle. One of the rumored candidates for the gubernatorial election is none other than Diane Feinstein. Assuming she ran and won, she would be in the rare position of appointing her own replacement in the Senate. If such a scenario actually happens, whom would you like to see Feinstein appoint? There are a lot of choices on California's bench out there.
James L. :: CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread
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CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 70 comments
I expect to McCarpetbag to run for something
If he ends up losing in CA-04, (which is admittedly not looking very likely), if he wins he'll probably stay in congress for at least a few years, until he realizes that the federal budget (unlike the California budget) doesn't require a 2/3rds vote and he's a powerless backbencher.  

I don't really like any of the likely CA-Gov candidates.
All of them except Feinstein are very progressive, but none of them are inspiring. We need a Howard Dean to shake up the CA establishment, and I don't see one in the likely field. I'll probably end up voting for Garamendi or Villagairosa (sp?), unless the anti-Feinstein wing coalesces around a different candidate. My ideal candidate would be Van Jones, but that's not going to happen.

As for CA-Sen if, god forbid, Feinstein wins, maybe Secretary of State Debra Bowen?  

i like and respect Feinstein
the state's just gone from leaning Republican to leaning bastion since her first election in 1992. She still holds the same values the enabled to win then. I also really like Lockyer and Garamendi. Feinstein would the best, followed by Jerry Brown is it, the attorney general and former mayor of Oakland.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Boxer was elected the same year. n/t

[ Parent ]
by a much smaller margin
against a weaker opponent. Feinstein also had to be reelected in 1994, while Boxer got until 1998.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Jerry Brown
  Interesting to hear Jerry Brown referred to that way. While it is true that he is AG and was Mayor, many of us older folks remember him as a two-term Governor of CA (1974-1982). Because he was Gov before the era of term limits he is eligible to run for the top spot again.
  If I were voting today it would be for Garamendi, the Lt Gov. He has won statewide races (Lt Gov and Insurance Commissioner) and is from the Central Valley, which is more of a swing area than the SF Bay area or Los Angeles. I don't much like Feinstein's mushy centrism, but she is very popular with the independent and low-information voters. CA Gov is the Big One; Boxer is fairly safe for reelection to the Senate.
[ Parent ]
I'm Hoping For A Shakeup Too
Maybe a Boxer vs. Schwarzenegger Senate race would give the Senator an actual contest and force the California Democrats to shake up their complacency and bring in some new people so they don't end up losing.

As for the governor's race, there's a lot to choose from. Maybe the mayor of L.A, Antonio Villaraigosa?

My Can Of Contemplation is now open to all for perusal.

[ Parent ]
What Has Boxer Done Wrong?
While I agree that the CDP is EXTREMELY LAZY and in need of a shakeup, I don't see why that would necessitate us wishing for a tough race for Sen. Boxer. Why? She's one of our best progressive allies in the Senate!

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
The only good thing about
a Gov. Feinstein would be that she wouldn't be in the Senate anymore. On the other hand she'd get to appoint her successor, so that may cancel out the good side.

My favs for Gov:

- Jack O'Connell
- Gavin Newsom
- Loretta Sanchez
- Debra Bowen

And should Feinstein win and get to appoint a successor to the Senate I'd like to see one of the following get the nod:

- Hilda Solis
- Linda Sanchez
- Loretta Sanchez
- Karen Bass
- Jackie Speier
- Xavier Becerra

I am sick of this "appointed to the Senate" bullshit.
It is time for special elections for Senate vacancies.  Period.  There's no excuse for anything else anymore.

Apparently Alaska and Massachusetts have already changed their laws to ensure this due to prior fiascoes, or near fiascoes.  Massachusetts changed the law in advance of John Kerry's candidacy for president, to prevent Gov Romney from appointing a Republican.  Alaska changed their law after Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to the seat.

Wyoming and Arizona both have laws requiring the appointment to go to the party that previously held the seat.  Though that would be a pretty embarrassing situation if a Senator from those states ever went down to scandal.  "Here, Jon Kyl is now a convicted felon, so have John Shadegg as Senator!!"  That would go over poorly.

Anyway, there is NO REASON for anything other than 120 day special elections.  The incoming Senate is going to have seven appointed Senators in it: Illinois, Delaware, Wicker, Barrasso, Murkowski, Menendez, and Lautenberg (who at least has the excuse of having been elected on his own beforehand).  We almost got an appointee in Tim Johnson's seat too.  

Having a governor appoint a Senator is fundamentally undemocratic, completely unnecessary, and introduces major irregularities into the operation of the Republic (such as, Chris Dodd can't be elevated to the cabinet because we'd lose his Senate seat to Chris Shays).  And the idea of Feinstein appointing someone to hold that seat for another sixteen years makes me ill.

Also, we might have won that Mississippi seat if it had been an immediate special election.  Mike Moore would have been more willing to run for a true open seat in a short special, than in a two year slog against a new incumbent, I have to imagine.

[ Parent ]
Actually Feinstein originally won her seat
  by beating an appointed Senator, John Seymour. Seymour was chosen by Pete Wilson to take over his senate seat when Wilson was elected Governor in 1990. DiFi kicked his butt in the '92 election, something like 55% to 40%.
[ Parent ]
Not so fast
Wicker and Barraso were both just elected by voters, Menendez and Murkowski also won elections post-appointment, but Lautenberg was never appointed. He won a special election the first time around and was put on the ballot after Torricelli dropped out, but Torricelli did not resign his seat, so there was nothing to appoint Lautenberg to.
[ Parent ]
I know that all those people won subsequent elections.
But their appointment foreclosed the chance for a real primary, and in many cases there is no real general election contest either because the vacancies came in one-party states.  I was well aware that these Senators were later "ratified" by general elections, and that doesn't alter the point I was making.

You got me on Lautenberg though.  He was appointed to the ballot line, not to the actual office.  That still foreclosed the possibility of a primary, but under the circumstances there was little else that could be done.

Speaking of, if I'm going to insist on a change in how vacant senate seats are handled, I might as well insist on a change in how vacant ballot lines are handled.  Between NY-13, NY-26, NJ-Sen (Torricelli), MO-Sen (Carnahan), MN-Sen (Wellstone), TX-22 (DeLay), FL-16 (Foley), and FL-16 (Mahoney), there are ample examples for why there should be an organized procedure for changing names on a ballot line.

We're lucky we've never had a presidential candidate incapacitated (by health or scandal) in September or October.  Suppose Barack or McCain had had a heart attack in September; what exactly would the country have done?  Barack is the more interesting case; suppose you have a party that is clearly on its way to reclaiming the presidency, leads on every issue, has a mandate from the people, etc, and then they lose their candidate in September?  Does the destiny of the country change forever because of a blood clot?  We should have systems in place for handling this, as well as the much more frequent cases where this happens to downballot candidates.

Unfortunately, it would also open the door for some shenanigans.  Not-Stevens might have been elected, for instance.  Ditto not-DeLay, not-Foley, and not-Mahoney.  And that rep in KY-02 might have retired in October, not March, which would be LAME.

[ Parent ]
Sorry...
But as someone who's witnessed California politics for quite a while now, I have to say that nearly ALL the names you mention will likely bow out if DiFi runs. I don't think any of them would want to be on her bad side should they be on the shortlist for a Senate seat appointed by Governor Feinstein in 2011.

Still, I'm a BIG fan of my Rep. Loretta Sanchez & I hope she gets on that shortlist for a Senate appointment.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

[ Parent ]
I don't know
It seems to me that Boxer's been pretty aggressive about fundraising for a while now (I happen to get emails from her and you'd be extremely surprised about how many fundraising emails I've gotten). At a minimum, I think Boxer's worried about Ahnold running.

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.
In the last few days
I got several emails from her son Doug to donate something in multiples of 68 for her birthday.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!
[ Parent ]
hispanic Susan Davis
or maybe Antonio Villagorso, perhaps a black candidate, though I don' know of any prominent figures.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
I live in LA, and Villaraigosa's been a big disappointment
The main thing he's known for now is having an affair with a TV reporter whose employer has been in negotiations with the city of LA to expand.  Oh, and he failed the bar 4 times.

No to him, no to Newsom, who was the star of all the pro-prop 8 commercials, ("like it or not, its here to stay!").  

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.

[ Parent ]
agreed
ONE hundred percent. Both of them should be passed over immediately. Although, I have to admit, I would take some perverse pleasure in Newsom being elected as a big FYOU to the social conservatives in our state. Not to mention, that anyone the Republicans put forward is going to be so ultra-conservative, no abortion, no immigration, blah blah blah cue Glenn that the liberal choice of the two is GOING to win out in the end. That's why they got Arnold via recall, he'd NEVER have won a republican primary in our state... EVER!
[ Parent ]
For now I support Feinstein (please don't hit me)
But I also like Brown and Garamendi. The person I most want to run and will not is Leon Panetta.
Why do people dislike Feinstein?
I'm not accusing anyone; I don't know much about California politics.  Someone willing to fill me in on this?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway
[ Parent ]
Kos and a lot of the populists in the party feel she's too business friendly.
She's also very hawkish on national security matters. Feinstein votes like she's a Democrat from Indiana or North Carolina.

The only thing she is super liberal on is gun control which is one of the few things I'm super conservative about. Every time Dianne shows up at a press conference with an AK-47 and starts schreeching she costs the national party about ten thousand votes in places like New Hampshire and Colorado.

[ Parent ]
Feinstein
Diane's husband has very significant business interests in China. A lot of liberals were disappointed when she was the main driving force in Congress pushing for "most preferred nation" trade status for China during the Clinton years. She also leans very right on all the trade and deregulation issues and is particularly unfriendly to labor. She is a prototypical Democrat from California 15-20 years ago but is way out of touch today.

Jane Harman (D-CA 36) is another very similar Dem in the House. Neither of them will come out of the primary today if not for their incumbency.

[ Parent ]
I beat she would appoint Harman to the Senate
I beat she would appoint Harman to the Senate if she is Governor.
[ Parent ]
Her or Ellen Tauscher, guaranteed.

[ Parent ]
Exactly, exactly
Although she's been less vocal on gun control lately.  

I did have warm feelings for her during the Prop 8 fight, since she was the only politician to sit in front of a camera and say "don't vote for this."  As opposed to opposing it by press release, a la Schwarzenegger and (sadly) Obama.  

But voted for Iraq, voted to confirm Mukasey and did so with "wow, those crazy liberal who think that he won't be much better than Gonzales.  They're sure crazy, huh?"


John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.

[ Parent ]
TV
She also made frequent TV appearances during the Bush years advising Democrats on why we should cave on virtually everything.  The result seems to be that DiFi is far more disliked by out of state Democrats (like me) than by instate Democrats.  And California Democrats are the ones who count.
[ Parent ]
She also sponsered the flag burning amendment
The pro-business stuff doesn't rankle me as much as that did.
[ Parent ]
Well
There's FISA, Mukasey and Southwick to name three issues.
[ Parent ]
Feinstein is right of center
Feinstein has been the worst Democrat in office wherever she has been, starting with opposing progressive change on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors 30 years ago.

If she does not run for Governor, and please please I hope she does not, she may retire at the end of her Senate term and we could get 1) a genuine progressive from one of the most progressive states in the country, and 2) a Californian who can be talked about in presidential discussions.  It's truly bizarre no Californian has been even mentioned in terms of blue presidential politics since Jerry Brown.

Feinstein is an unwanted houseguest who needs to get the hell out of the house already.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

[ Parent ]
Cranston in 1984
Allan Cranston ran a really pathetic campaign for President in 1984.  Google Cranston president and it comes up.  

It's one of those things that barely ticks the memory.  Without the lookup I couldn't even place the year.

California candidates have generally had trouble getting noticed in Presidential contests.  Pete Wilson was a flop on the Republican side and even Reagan needed three tries (1968,1976, and 1980).  Earl Warren was a losing candidate for VP in 1948.  Nixon lost, of course, in 1960.  Wasn't he technically a NY resident in 1968?  That leaves several Gerry Brown tries and Cranston for the Democrats.

[ Parent ]
How about John Chiang for Gov?
He has done a decent job as Controller and the one thing I like about John is that he is not mired in ethnic and local politics like a lot of possible Governor candidate from the legislature. The only down side is his name recognition is not as good... but unlike Garamendi, he is not a retread.

I really don't see why Feinstein would want to give up the Senate for the hapless job of Governor but stranger things have happened. Schwarzenegger can challenge Boxer but he will lose... Unlike Feinstein, Boxer is actually very popular Senator in California.

He'd be fantastic
I don't think he could win though. Maybe run for Lt. Governor?  
[ Parent ]
He is a long shot I agree...
Maybe another term as Controller and then Lt Gov. But John Chiang and Debra Bowen are the 2 rising star to watch in California. I'd be VERY happy with either one of them as Gov.
[ Parent ]
As would I.
They are my two favorite statewide officeholders, along with Boxer if the Senators count.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!
[ Parent ]
A question for those from California
How electable would Jerry Brown be for governor?  It's one thing to be elected AG, but governor might be another story.  And maybe a bigger question is how desirable would that be?  He's been around a long, long time.
Jerry Brown is too weird
to be Governor of California and frankly, I'd advise Dems to avoid him if possible. A lot of Southern California & Central Valley residents were still around when he was governor and despise him. The state is too freaking expensive to compete in and it may be better to go with the low risk candidate. having said that...the whole list of candidates suck....Garamdendi has been hoping from one office to another (like Steve Lockyer). If I had a gun to my head, I'd go with the least disastrous option which is Garamendi but he is really dour.  
[ Parent ]
That's kind-of my impression as an outsider
That he never has fully shed his "Governor Moonbeam" image.
[ Parent ]
what does that refer to?
His odd lifestyle, and new-age, eastern philosophy?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
All of the above n/t

[ Parent ]
Boxer will run
and win without major opposition.

As for the governors field. That's going to be busy. The only people that I don't really like are DiFi and Newsom. Unfortunately there isn't anyone that I like much either. If Bowen ran I'd support her but I doubt she will. We'll see how it plays out. I bet DiFi won't run and Brown will win the primary and beat Meg Whittman in the GE.

On another front, Kamala Harris, the awesome DA in the Bay Area who has a very inspiring story has launched her campaign for Attorney General.

http://www.kamalaharris.org/home

Bowen and Chiang
   are the best statewide Democratic officeholders but part of what makes them excellent is their suitability for and dedication to their current jobs (SoS and Controller). I hope and think that they will run for reelection and then look at other offices four years later.  
[ Parent ]
Meg Whitman
I've read Meg Whitman, former e-Bay CEO, may be a candidate for the Republicans for governor.  Admittedly, I'm pretty ignorant of CA state politics, but my impression is that a non-politician who may have more centrist appeal than most CA elected Republicans would have the best chance for the Red Team.  Anyone more familiar with the situation want to venture a guess whether she would be a formidable candidate?
She's rich
and knows jack shit about politics in California.

However she has Steve Schmitt and some high powered consultants and all the money in the world on her side, so she'll probably he the Republican nominee. And since she can put a billion dollars into the race she's probably their strongest candidate.  

[ Parent ]
Kinda What I Was Thinking
But, with the added bonus of not having much of a public record, so that she can tailor her positions for the general election.
[ Parent ]
Ideas?
Democrats

Rob Reiner has been edging towards running for something for a few years.  OTOH, Warren Beatty, perennial semi pseudo candidate is probably done with.

David Geffen may be Hollywood but he's worth $6 billion (or was according to Wikipedia) and has been a long time donor and fund raiser.  This year he raised $1.3 million for Obama.  The downside is that he is openly gay.  At 65 this might be his one and only chance so I suspect he'd really open up the money spigot.

Republicans

Darrell Issa.  He financed the recall and got shoved aside by Arnold.  Issa still has plenty of bucks, a seat in Congress to lend legitimacy, and lots of ambition.

Bill Simon.  A statewide figure who can claim that his loss to Gray Davis was bogus since David hiod the looming electric rate crisis.  Has money, too.

hahahahahaha
Issa and Simon will both lose at LEAST 60-40... If not more. At least against a crappy candidate... Against a shitty, horrible, unbelievably socialistic liberal, 55-45, they still lose. lol Even money can't buy a far-right wing conservative a seat in the Governor's mansion in our state. All of them are basically against abortion, and that right there is enough to lose them at least 45% of the vote in this state.  
[ Parent ]
Ya
I hope they nominate someone like McClintock, Issa or Simon for Governor.  It will be an easy win regardless of who we nominate if that's the case.  The only name that worries me at all is Poizner, though we'd probably still win against him.
[ Parent ]
O.M.G.
I swear to God, and no offense to you Chad, everyone who is NOT in California, PLEASE, stop listing Poizner as a possibility for ANYTHING! He won Insurance Commissioner because NO ONE LIKE BUSTAMONTE!!!!!!! Not because he's a good person, or his stances on issues. I can't even tell you what he looks like...

It also didn't help Bustamonte when it was discovered just HOW much of his campaign contributions came from the Insurance Industry. Talk about a conflict of interests. Poizner will lose any other elected office he tries to run for, and may lose if a strong Democrat runs against him in 2010. He was elected by chance, not by virtue.

[ Parent ]
I donated to Poizner. as a liberal Democrat
I really like Poizner. He's my favorive Republican in elected office. He's liberal, and progressive on his issues, and I thought he would do a very good job at Insurance commissioner. Plus I hated Bustamonte. He's from northern California, and almost won an overwhelmingly Democratic seat a few years ago. He almost shouldn't be a REpublican. Anyway, I really like him and if Governor was between him and Villagaraso, and I was living in California, I would vote for him.

I'm not from instate though. Still, its undeniable that he would be a strong candidate, especially since he can self fund. But the national party seems to be lining up behind Meg Whitman.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Ironic though
that someone named "Poizner" is a state Insurance Commissioner.
[ Parent ]
Issa would be a debacle
But he's definitely got plans to up his profile the next couple years, so we'll see.
[ Parent ]
California governor in 2010
Right-wing Darrell Issa has no chance of getting elected governor of California, and Bill Simon--a joke to those few of us who remember him--has even less. I like Populista's idea of Jerry Brown v Meg Whitman, with Brown the ultimate winner. That sounds plausible.

Apart from Whitman, Carly Fiorina might be another formidable Republican gubernatorial candidate. Of the current Republican elected officials, Steve Poizner is probably the only viable possibility. All three can claim to be moderates. The likelihood, however, is that the Democrat would win, even against one of these three.

I would guess that the Democratic candidate will be either Attorney General Brown, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, or L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, unless Senator Diane Feinstein decides to go for it, in which case it will probably be her. Any one of those four should prove a decent governor, especially if we can get rid of the 2/3 requirement in the legislature to pass the state budget. That relatively recent requirement gives Republicans a de facto veto over economic issues in the state.

I think Villaraigosa has been underestimated in this thread. Yes, he was an initial disappointment. But he's been doing better lately. He seems to have gotten a mass transit initiative passed this November, which will radically transform L.A. for the better. That alone will rank him as one of the significant L.A. mayors. We'll think of him every time we ride "the subway to the sea."

Loretta Sanchez, incidentally, would be a terrible governor--Brown's self-absorption combined with Feinstein's pro-business assumptions. Debra Bowen, who is great, looks good for Senator some day, as do Jackie Speier and a number of other current Representatives.  

Ralph Nader
This is not the topic of this thread. My apologies in advance.

After 8 yrs of Green and Republicans Presidency, Obama feels like a breath of fresh air. However, in Missouri, has Nader delivered the state to McCain? I sure would like to know.

Who Knows
Nader seems like such a gadfly at this stage, that I'm not sure anyone can make any reasonable guesses as to what his supporters would do if he were not on the ballot.  I could see them voting for another third party candidate, not voting, or even voting for McCain.

Also, I just checked Missouri election results and Nader has fewer votes than the Libertarian plus Constitution party candidates.  So, it's difficult for me to say third parties cost us this one.

[ Parent ]
A number of his voters I've met would not vote in the GE if Nader wasn't running.
I don't think they would swung any state vote unless a number of them were solid Democrats. I've got to say if you voted for Kerry, but thought Obama wasn't as good of a candidate, your an idiot.
[ Parent ]
CA Gov & Sen
For governor, both parties have oodles of possibilities, but almost all of them are too liberal or conservative.  In each party there seems to be one moderate candidate at this point, and, unfortunately, California does not elect liberal Democrats to the governorship.  It is more possible than not that the most centrist candidates from each party get nominated, those being Feinstein and Poisner.  The "-wing" candidates will split their votes. At this time, I don't think any progressive Democrat will win unless matched up against an uberconservative Republican, of which there is no shortage.  That said, I'd love to see Steve Westley run again.

As for Senate, Dianne has always wanted to be governor, so if successful she appoints someone in her mold. Harman and Tauscher come to mind.

For Boxer's seat, the only one who could beat her won't run--that being Arnie.  He likes being an executive, and would chafe in a role where he couldn't be a decision-maker. Unlike a lot of posters state here, though, I believe Schwarzenegger is only temporarily weakened.  He's been there before and come back (everyone posited that he'd lose reelection, and he trounced Angelides).  I'd bet that McClintock and Issa attempt to get the Republican banner.

Huh?
Jerry and Pat Brown weren't liberal Democrats? Oh, I get it. We're playing that game where we take the last four or so governors and make false assumptions based on them. Carry on.
[ Parent ]
The Browns
No quarreling that the Browns were liberal Democrats at the time of their elections. The last of thos, however, occurred in 1978, thirty years ago, probably before half of us were even born.  Since then, there has been only one Democratic governor, who was recalled.  And Jerry Brown has consistently been all over the map (boot camp for juvenile offenders anyone?) ever since.  I'm not saying I necessarily like it, but my sense is that California likes its liberal Democratic legislators, but balances that out by electing Republican governors.  We like having our cake (spending) and eating it too (bonds, not taxes). Having Democratic legislatures and Republican governors allows us to accomplish this. (Snark).
[ Parent ]
Tauscher was mentioned as a possible Senate appointee
in the S.F. Chronicle last week:

Feinstein also made a big point of introducing East Bay Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher as her "very good friend" - leading some to speculate that if Feinstein runs for governor in 2010, Tauscher would be on the short list to replace her in the U.S. Senate.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

If that were the scenario, I would hope Feinstein finishes out her term in the Senate and retires, so a more progressive Democrat can replace her.

[ Parent ]
Oh hell no
She's actually a step down from Feinstein.  Tauscher could never win a statewide primary.
[ Parent ]
I'm sure it would be either her or Harman.
I'm sure it would be either her or Harman.
[ Parent ]
CA: Endlessly interesting...
The Democratic field for the governor's race is truly enormous. San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom, attorney general and former governor Jerry Brown, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Rep. Loretta Sanchez, former controller Steve Westly and secretary of state Debra Bowen are all legitimate possibilities. I think any of them could win statewide.

I would prefer Brown, Newsom or Bowen get the nomination. The only problem with Newsom is whether his interesting personal life would hurt him in a general election.

The key here will be avoiding a divisive, expensive primary that drains resources and hobbles the eventual nominee. Westly and Phil Angelides savaged each other in the 2006 primary and by the time Angelides got the nomination, it was pretty much worthless.

I really hope Dianne Feinstein decides to serve out the remainder of her Senate term and then retire. She will be 77 years old in 2010. If she served eight years in Sacramento, she'd be 85 when she left office. Her chance to be governor passed in the early 1990's when she chose a career in the Senate.

As for the Senate race, I would frankly be shocked if Arnold Schwarzenegger decided to run against Sen. Boxer. He's in his 60's, I doubt he'd want to start at the bottom of the totem pole in what's likely to be the minority party. Some nobody state legislator will probably get the nomination and be swamped. Boxer will probably be the most well-funded incumbent in the 2010 cycle.  

"If you think my power as governator of California is huge,"
"You should see the size of my ego!"

(Joke plagiarized from Yu-Gi-Oh!: the Abridged Series.)

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

[ Parent ]
CA-Gov, my guess is Feinstein goes for it,
for the chance for chief exec power, plus constant cross country flights may be getting old for her. My guess is Meg Whitman, dot.com billionaire, will spend to get the Repub nom.
Who wins? It'll be close between two pro-business "centrist" well-funded women. My guess is despite all her expensive campaign consultants and image-making, Whitman will make some rookie candidate mistake, and Feinstein squeaks by.

CA-Sen, my  guess is Schwarzenegger will go for it; for the macho challenge of running, plus I think he has come to enjoy power.
The CA Repubs hate him but they'll have no choice due to his celebrity status. But he hasn't run into as tough a political campaigner as Boxer before who can lay every recent CA ill at his doorstep, and who'll get re-elected.
Poor Ahnold. He'll just have to go back to being a movie star making, say, $50M a film?

Gov. Schwarzenegger and power...
This is exactly the reason I strongly believe Gov. Schwarzenegger will ultimately not run against Barbara Boxer. It makes no sense for him to run for the Senate to gain power since he will be a freshmen lawmaker in what's likely to be the minority party. From what I can tell, Schwarzenegger does like to be in power and waging a campaign against a popular incumbent where he's the decided underdog just to end up in the minority in the unlikely event he wins is the antithesis of being in control.
[ Parent ]
you certainly could be right,
but Schwarzenegger is impulsive.
IIRC, the evening that he announced on The Tonight Show that he'd run for governor (during the Gov. Davis recall mess), he'd actually had decided not to try it and his people had written out a press release to that effect to be released after the Leno taping.
However just prior to taping, Ahnold changed his mind, thinking "oh what the heck, let's go for it".
And the rest is history, as they say.
[ Parent ]
george
clooney for senate

being normal is for the mediocre.
Oh fun...
My current home state! I haven't decided yet whether to remain registered to vote here in 2010... But so far, all the Guv & Senate drama may be enough to keep me voting here at least through the 2010 primary.

- Governor: Let's face the facts. This job is DiFi's (Dianne Feinstein for you non-Californicators) if she wants it. Since it seems she wants it, the primary is probably game over. As much as I'd love to see Lt. Gov. John Garamendi or SF Mayor Gavin Newsom or even LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa a shot at this, I don't think any of them has enough star power to overpower DiFi.

- Senate-B: Barbara Boxer is probably safe this cycle. I doubt Ahhnuld the Governator can ever handle NOT being the center of attention. And let's face it, Washington already has too many attention seeking man-divas for Mr. Hollywood to make a scene. And if my neighboring Assembly Member, perpetual attention whore Chuck Devore, is the nominee, stick a fork in the CA GOP... Boxer wins in a landslide!

Senate-A: If DiFi becomes Governor in 2011, she'll have a tough decision to make as soon as she comes to Sactown. Who will succeed her in the Senate? I'm handicapping Gavin Newsom as the early favorite with my own fabulous Congresswoman, Loretta Sanchez, and Villaraigosa as possible wild cards.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

My home state too!
I wish I could be home by 2010 to vote in those fun races!

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!
[ Parent ]
CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 70 comments

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