I'm going with Schakowsky or Duckworth

*Jackson is too liberal and could have trouble winning statewide.

*Danny Davis is too old, and too liberal.

*Valerie Jarrett has no real qualification for the job other than being close to Obama.  

*Blagojevich hates Madigan, and even though appointing her would remove a big obstacle for him, I have a hard time seeing him give her that plum.

*Gutirerrez is a wild card, though to be honest, the guy has done absolutely nothing of note in Congress.  

In the end, Rod is going to do what is best for him.  I've read he really wants to run for a third term, even though his favorables are in the teens.  So maybe he would tap Madigan, but I am going to stick with Jan or Tammy, both of whom he has good relationships with.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 09:30:18 AM CST

I say BARF to J J Jr.

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by: andgarden @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 09:35:45 AM CST

Comment

Like I've said before, I think there will be massive pressure on Blago to appoint an African-American.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 09:45:44 AM CST

I like the Jarrett idea

Although she's never held elected office, that doesn't mean she isn't qualified - quite the opposite, she has a long history of civic/political involvement long before Obama was running for President

- She worked in the mayor's office under Harold Washington (in Finance and Development) and Richard Daley (Deputy Chief of staff), and then as Commissioner of the Planning/Development Department

- She was chair of the Chicago Transit Board for 10 years

- She is the chair of the Board of the University of Chicago Med Center hospital

- She is vice-chair of the Board of the University of Chicago

- She was a member of the Board of the Chicago Stock Exchange for 10 years, including 3 years as chair

- She is a successful businesswoman, CEO of a real estate company that has a good reputation in Chicago

So Jarrett is a candidate with a track record in economic development, financial markets, education, health care, transportation, and municipal government... hard to match those qualifications.
--

The idea of the US Senate having no African-American members because Obama is elevated to the White House is pretty unacceptable in my book. Maybe that will be corrected in the Delaware appointment to replace Joe Biden, but it seems that Obama's seat is the most likely to fill that void (of course, there would be nothing wrong with making history by having 2 black Senators at the same time by having one from each state). Jarrett would also add another woman to combat the under-representation  of women in the Senate.

Valerie Jarrett proved during the campaign that she is politically smart and is good in media appearances.

I think she would be a great choice to give Obama another strong and trusted ally in the Senate to make sure his agenda is enacted.

 

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by: terje @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 09:55:20 AM CST

You make a very solid case here ...

... as to why she might be the best political choice, as well as make the best Senator.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 11:15:05 AM CST

[ Parent ]

IL-Sen: Whom Might Blagojevich Appoint? (Round 2)

Madigan would be the most logical, but the Madigan clan is not high on Blago's list. On the other hand, she is likely to unseat him as governor --- what better way to eliminate her than to promote her to the U.S. Senate! But I am not sure she would take it. Madigan has her eye on the 2016 presidential race and, Obama's path notwithstanding, being governor is a surer path than being a one-term Senator.

No way on Giannoulias, he is, I believe, only 32 and has not held an office higher than state treasurer.

No on Duckworth, too. She is not really a legislator, she is a figment of Rahm Emmanuel's imagination. Rahm-bo screwed Christine Cegelis (who almost unseated Henry Hyde in '04) by pushing Duckworth, who was a veteran with a great story, but utterly unqualified. She lost, which was deserved.

Jackson Jr. would probably do a good enough job, but the issue would be winning the white downstate vote in 2010. He has done a very good job winning white votes in his district.

Dan Hynes would be interesting. He is really the only candidate that Obama ever had to defeat in a major election before he ran for president. People talk about Obama being part of the Chicago political machine, but in the '04 Senate primary, Hynes was The Chicago Guy, from the well-connected political family. Obama beat him and Blair Hull, then Jack Ryan got a divorce and his ex-wife revealed he had a thing for swingers' clubs and, next thing you know, it was Barack vs. Alan Freaking Keyes. But, back to Hynes --- he would be our Senator if he did not run into the Obama steamroller, so I'd be OK with letting him see what he can do.

Personally, though, my pick is Jan Schakowsky. She is, in my view, on the right side of every issue, especially labor, the environment and women's rights. And she has more guts than just about anyone in congress. That said, she has a very liberal record that could be used against her if the GOP had a decent, moderate candidate in 2010.  

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by: ChicagoDev @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 09:57:07 AM CST

I made a thread

About this a while ago and I said Madigan was the least likely because it would look like a complete quid pro quo. Plus, its not like Madigan is the only credible primary opponent for Blago.

I think it'll be Jesse Jackson Jr. because he can't afford to alienate Illinois' African-American community by choosing someone like Schakowsky.

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by: safi @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 10:16:55 AM CST

[ Parent ]

If it were me

I'd say this is not the year for appointing another white male of a certain age (like me) or even a younger one, so a woman or a minority member. Guess I'd follow old-style politics of the balanced ticket and giving something to each interest group. So, the blacks just got the big one, the women lost it, now give them a woman Senator as a consolation prize. Sorry, Jesse.

And if I were Gov of Illinois, I'd want to please the President-Elect. I'd assume Barack has a little list of favorites, and he'd be happy if Blago chose any of several, but not so happy if he chose someone not among the favored. Blago needs all the friends he can get, especially Number One.

Of the names, Valerie Jarrett can get a top position in the Obama Administration.

Mayor Daley and the Chicago Machine should have input. Some names are among its members, and the opening created would mean a promotion opportunity for another one.

I hated that Duckworth was pushed into a race in a district she didn't even live in. Then millions were spent in that race when a tenth of the amount could have elected Larry Kissell, Vic Wutsin, and probably a couple of others back in '06. But not sure I blame her for all that, because I don't think she made the big decisions.

Otherwise about the Springfield pols I know nothing and care as much.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 10:13:57 AM CST

So, Blagojevich

Appoints a woman because Hillary lost?

IMO that makes absolutely no sense. I'd almost be willing to go along with it, if there were only 1-2 females in the senate but there's a good bit more than that.

Jarret is a dangerous pick because Blagojevich's main goal is to appoint the least controversial person. Its why he doesn't appoint Madigan, because it looks like a quid pro quo. A choice of Jarrett looks like he's just trying to curry favor with Obama. If he's going to go that route, might as well just pick Jesse Jackson Jr. who you can make the case is the best choice.

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by: safi @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 10:24:02 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Women Senators

We are currently 16 women in the United States Senate. We will have 17 women in the Senate come January, adding Jeanne Shaheen.

I'm sorry that this rate of progress, adding 1 every 2 years, does not trouble you.

But at this rate we will both be dead (70 years from now) before the number of women in the Senate approaches their share of the population.

I think it's a national shame, and in particular a shame for the Democratic party. If Democratic women aren't angry and impatient about it, shame on them too.

For that reason I favor Rep. Jan Schakowsky, but I would not complain if the job went to Tammy Duckworth, Lisa Madigan, Valerie Jarrett, or any other woman.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 15:21:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The Senate isn't representative in many ways

What do we have?  Just 3% Hispanics in the Senate when they make up 15% of the population.  Only 1% Black (Obama) when they make up 13% of the population.  Also 12% Jewish, yet they are only around 2% of the population and 0% non-religious when we (myself included, I'm athiest) are nearly 15% of the U.S. population.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 16:00:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm fairly sure we have more than 0 non-religious senators

Just none of them have the guts to admit it.  (The fact that more than half of Americans say they wouldn't vote for an atheist probably has something to do with it as well.)

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by: Marcus @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 16:45:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

particularly considering

you're extracting the only black member from the senate... the upper chamber was no-man's land for blacks and hispanics for far too long for that to continue. and if hillary needs consolation i should think the white house being overrun by allies/endorsers/advisers should suffice.

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

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by: RichardPlatypus @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 16:48:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Exactly.

Women are still under represented in the Senate and in the Governor's offices and in most political professions.

The reason I think its more important to have Obama replaced by an African-American than a woman is for a couple of reasons. I think for this particular seat, I think there are a number of qualified African-Americans I've stated my preference for Jesse Jackson Jr. But when it comes to whose names have been bandied about, Schakowsky is the only one who I would be satisfied with. Appointing Madigan is an obvious quid pro quo. Valerie Jarret has never held or run for political office and her name is only being mentioned because she's close friends with the Obamas. And while I have a great deal of admiration and respect for Tammy Duckworth, all she has under ehr belt are a failed congressional run and a 2 year stint as Secretary of Veteran Affairs in Illinois. Basically, put her in a race against savvy politico like Mark Kirk and I don't know.

The other is that, while women are still under-represented they've reached a point that other  minority groups have yet to reach. When a women gets elected Senator or Governor it is no longer considered a big deal because there a re a decent percentage of them. On the other hand, when an African-American or Hispanic is elected its still a huge rarity.

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by: safi @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 20:57:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

"Woman" and "Racial Minority" are not mutually exclusive...

These posts are treating women and minorities as two separate groups; women of color make up more than one eighth of our population and are ignored in popular discourse. We talk about Clinton and Obama as the first woman and African-American to realistically have a shot at the presidency; we ignore their race and gender, respectively. We normalize maleness and whiteness, reaffirm the notion that the idea of "race" only applies to minorities, and that "gender" only effects women, when we discuss complex identity politics in such black-and-white terms. All of these posts ignore the fact that the 17 women in the Senate come January will all be white, that the 6 people of color in the Senate currently are all men. The "decent percentage of elected officials" is pretty much irrelevant when you consider that women of all colors make up 51 % of the population, and if you are talking about representation of other minority groups, they make up a much smaller percentage. Regardless of whether we are talking about race, gender, or- dare we go there!- the intersectionalities of both, along with sexuality, class, religions, etc.- we still have a hell of a long way to go before we near anything resembling accurate demographic representation of our population.

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by: Fix Utah Blue @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 00:28:12 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Your absolutely

Right as a general concept, but when it comes to this particular situation, the two people who fit both categories, Valerie Jarrett and Tammy Duckworth I stated why I felt that those 2 should not be appointed.

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by: safi @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 00:53:42 AM CST

[ Parent ]

appointments

i think blago will appoint madigan to get her and her father offa his back. alexi will primary him in 2010 and more than likely win. duckworth wil be sec of veteran's affairs  

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by: thefnmarlboroman @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 10:22:35 AM CST

he SHOULD appoint dan hynes

lisa madigan is the next governor of the state.  jesse jackson jr i guess is my 2nd choice.

i'm sort of torn and illinois politics is certainly not my specialty, but i think blago should be looking at electability and the ability to serve well for a long time.  very liberal congresspeople or people who've never won an election seem like poor choices.

blago himself is the worst choice of all, hands down.  Some of you have probably read my recitation of the demolition of the MN democratic party caused by Governor Wendy Anderson appointing himself Senator after Walter Mondale took the Vice Presidency.  

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by: st paul sage @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 10:35:26 AM CST

it's complicated

Traditionally, you'd think it would go to Hynes or Alexi (I think Madigan is set on being governor, and Blago appointing a Madigan would look bizarre). But obviously there being no African-American in the Senate is a real issue. So I'm inclined to think he'll appoint the most electable African-American. Whether that's Jarrett, Jackson, Kwame Raoul or Donne Trotter, I don't know. Or maybe it'll be Giannoulias. It's hard to say.

   

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by: armand @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 10:56:49 AM CST

Emil Jones

Please not him.  Most of the rest would be acceptable.  I would say Jesse Jackson Jr. would be my personal favorite.  

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by: TheGame08 @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 11:54:11 AM CST

Emil Jones

No way it'll be Jones. That would look even worse than Rod appointing himself.

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by: ChicagoDev @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 12:07:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm wondering why people keep saying Jesse Jackson Jr. is too liberal.

Obama was constantly defined by Republicans as "The most liberal senator in the US Senate" and he still won handily, his approvals sit high in Illinois.  I doubt Jesse Jackson Jr. would have problems with his voting record, moreso his profile as the son of a controversial figure.  But I doubt we'd have a Democrat with money lose in Illinois running statewide unless if he or she shot him or herself in the foot during the campaign.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 12:11:20 PM CST

That's it...

It's not that Jesse Jackson, Jr., is "too liberal". The problem is that he's too polarizing & that he's made too many enemies. See my comment below. While I'll admit that he's probably not hurt politically (unfortunately) by his smears of Hillary Clinton during the primaries, the way he's steamrolled over so many others, even his own father (!!!!), is just ugly. Why possibly risk what should be a safe Senate seat in 2010 with all that baggage?

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

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by: atdleft @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 13:01:44 PM CST

[ Parent ]

He hasn't made any enemies

Everyone seems to respect the guy on all sides of the political aisle.

Nobody cares what he said about Hillary, in fact I doubt she does.

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by: safi @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 20:45:35 PM CST

[ Parent ]

His name is still Jesse Jackson (Jr.)

I know that isn't his fault, Jackson Jr. sounds like a decent guy, but for a large number of voters it doesn't matter.  They just despise his father and will probably take it out on him.  I'm as liberal as you'll find and I don't like his dad.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 21:40:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I absolutely agree.

I simply believe that he can easily overcome this. He's been a big time player in the Chicago scene for some time, so people in the Chicago-land area are already familiar with him. He can win over enough people in the rest of the state as well.

But he himself, he doesn't have this negative reputation that others are trying to project on to him. Like I said nobody cares what he said about Hillary duriing the primary.

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by: safi @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 22:48:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

cover all bets

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Lisa Madigan.

If I could make the appointment myself, I'd probably pick Jan Schakowsky.

But the best choice if what he wants is a place-holder until he can run himself in 2010 would be Carole Moseley-Braun, because she would not waste the first two years trying to figure out how the Senate works. She could hit the ground running. They probably wouldn't restore her seniority, but she wouldn't be a clueless freshman.
 

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by: Christopher Walker @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 12:26:23 PM CST

hate to be a snark

but wasn't mosely-braun clueless for her entire 6 year term?

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by: st paul sage @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 13:46:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Moseley-Braun?

Is that really the best idea?  She did after all lose that very seat ten years ago.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 13:59:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Hah, ya

I'd even take Jackson Jr. over Moseley-Braun.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 14:14:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

yes, she lost the seat

She is only the best idea if the goal is to appoint someone for the next two years and then have a real election, with an open primary. In the mean time, a black woman senator with experience in the post. It is true she doesn't have the reputation for having been effective, but which party had the majority at that time? Who can name a freshman senator of the minority party, from any state, who was startlingly effective?  

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by: Christopher Walker @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 16:57:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Um, how 'bout Barack Obama ;)

I'm just messing with you. Your right about minority-party freshman. What the hell is that guys name from Tennessee elected to fill Frist's seat?

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by: nrimmer @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 00:16:41 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Bob Corker

The only freshman in the 2006 republican Senate class.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 00:17:50 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Isn't Mark Kirk the presumed opponent for the appointee in 2010?

He managed to retain his swing/liberal seat even in this year, and I've read he's the presumptive Republican candidate.  I don't know much about him.  

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by: Xenocrypt @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 12:38:37 PM CST

I hope he

picks Jesse Jackson Jr. I think Schakowsky is more likely though beacuse she's close to him and has the backing of the very powerful SEIU.

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by: Populista @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 12:42:36 PM CST

Tough choice...

My personal favorites are Valerie Jarrett, Jan Schakowsky, and Lisa Madigan. But since Blago may be scared into shying away from Schakowsky because of "Teh Liberal!!!" & Jarrett may be headed into the Obama Administration, I bet Madigan's the most likely choice of the three. Blago doesn't want to be primaried in 2010, and even though I think he'll be primaried with or without Lisa Madigan, he'll appoint her anyways because he still thinks for some reason that he actually has a chance.

And btw, I seriously hope he does NOT choose Jesse Jackson, Jr. The way he trashed Hillary Clinton during the primaries was disgusting. The only thing that disgusted me more was when he threw his own father under the bus to curry enough favor to possibly get this Senate seat! While Rev. Jackson's remarks were ill-thought-out & inappropriate, it was shameful for his own son to leave him high & dry like that!

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

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by: atdleft @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 12:55:05 PM CST

Ideology is the least

Of the concerns here. The fact that Schakowsky's husband is an ex-con is much more likely to be a disqualifer than her liberal ideology.

And again, picking Madigan will insure that Dan Hymes is the next Gov. of Illinois. It will tarnish Blago's already terrible reputation as it will appear to be a decision based solely on his own political future and it will coalesce Illinois' African-American community around Hymes.

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by: safi @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 00:59:31 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Gutierrez

He was going to retire this year but changed his mind.  That makes it seem to me that he's not really interested in stepping into the Senate.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 13:01:04 PM CST

here's a set theory exercise

Which candidates are acceptable to Obama?

Which candidates are acceptable to Blagojevich?

Which candidates will create a backlash from the media or a key constituency? Daley and Michael Madigan may count as key constituencies in this analysis.

When you answer these questions you will have a good idea who will be picked.

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by: Carl Nyberg @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 13:01:17 PM CST

Duckworth

She would have a better time holding the seat.  Madigan would hold it too, but she wants to be Governor.  Jesse Jackson, Jr. is a guarantee that the seat flips come 2010.  Choose Duckworth, she's neutral and it's hard to connect her with Blagojevich, whom is dreaming if he really expects to be re-elected.

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by: bushy08 @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 14:46:38 PM CST

I question

Why everyone assumes Jesse Jackson Jr will lose. Look he's not his father and all of these things about how polarizing he is, consider this: Obama made him one of his national co-chairs. If he really beleived that he was a polarizing liability why would he have done that?

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by: safi @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 20:59:44 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Schakowsky's husband

spent time in the pen last year for check kiting and tax fraud.  

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by: politicalal @ Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 22:55:23 PM CST