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2010 House Open Seat Watch: Rahm Is First To Go

by: James L.

Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 2:12 PM EST


It's official -- Rahm Emanuel will sign on as Obama's Chief of Staff (potentially a great move for Obama, in my opinion). While the timeline is unclear, Rahm will soon be stepping down from his seat in the House, triggering a special election. Rahm's district has a PVI of D+18, so there's no reason why we can't fill this seat with a solid progressive.

This leads me to ask -- where else might we see retirement (or resignation) announcements before the next election? Roy Blunt is stepping down as the House Minority Whip, and you have to wonder whether he'll ride off into the sunset and quit politics altogether. And there are plenty of crusty GOP oldsters like Roscoe Bartlett (MD-06), Bill Young (FL-10), and Ralph Hall (TX-04) who may call it a day. And on the Dem side, Leonard Boswell will always be the subject of retirement rumors.

It's never too early to start thinking ahead to the next round of elections. Which House seats do you think might open up in the next two years?
James L. :: 2010 House Open Seat Watch: Rahm Is First To Go
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2010 House Open Seat Watch: Rahm Is First To Go | 54 comments
Putnam may go too
Since he's stepping down from his leadership role.
We need to prepare for 2010 early
We need to do as well defending our seats in 2010 as we did in 2008 and a solid DCCC chair will do it.  We cannot have even half of a 1994 style wreck.  As long as our vulnerable members dont make bad votes(ie 1994 tax increase, assault weapons ban), our guys should be OK.  
henry brown
henry brown in SC-1 will retire before the next election. he faced a primary challenger this year, and while he won overwhelmingly, I think his general election performance, along with the fact that many in the GOP in his district thought he was asleep at the wheel facing Ketner, will lead some to want to push him out. there will be an interesting in-fight among the GOP to replace him. look for state senator chip campsen (r-charleston), state senator luke rankin (r-horry), and state representative thad viers (r-horry) to fight it out on the republican side. on our side, who knows? we'll have to see if ketner wants to pull a larry kissell and essentially continue her campaign for the next two years.
Also
Putnam is stepping down. Maybe he's running for Senate? He's still pretty young and it seems like a odd thing to do.

Any ideas on who would run for Rahm's seat?

Could see some House members go into the cabinent. Inslee, Solis and Jackson are a few contenders.

I'm hoping Kanjo steps down and I doubt he'd want another tough race.  

Putnam for Senate?
That would be great.  A brutal primary between Martinez and Putnam would help our side tremendously.
[ Parent ]
Just from his leadership position
Putnam is staying in the House; he's only dropping from his leadership position. He'll likely either retire in 4 years when he could run a statewide office (Governor) or stay in the House and eventually build up leadership again.
[ Parent ]
Works for me
Putnam is exactly the type of republican that Florida won't elect to a big statewide post.
[ Parent ]
I completely disagree.
He's my rep and I think he'd would be a formidable state-wide opponent.
[ Parent ]
Rahm's seat...
Just looking at Democrats who are currently in elected office, there are quite a bunch.

Cook County Commissioner wise, Forrest Claypool lives in Lincoln Square, but might want to challenge Tood Stroger for Board President again. Mike Quigley may or may not live in the district (not that you need to in Illinois), but he may want to stay at the county level as well. Peter Silvestri is a Republican, and Roberto Moldonado would run in the 4th, if any.

As for Illinois House, there are a few choices, all dependent on how badly these folks want to get out of Springfield: John Fritchey (seen as a rising star), Sara Feigenholtz, Greg Harris (the only openly gay member of the Illinois House), John D'Amico, Rich Bradley (who was chased out by Blago's sister-in-law), and Joe Lyons. Illinois Senators include John Cullerton, Ira Silverstein, and James DeLeo.

Several wards overlap with the 5th, but all of the alderman have been serving on the City Council since the early 90's, with the exception of Tom Tunney. Eugene Schulter and Vi Daley (unrelated to the mayor) are among Richard M. Daley's strongest supporters, for reference.

Additionally, throw in some of Rahm's staffers, and I think that's a good picture of what the Democratic side has to offer here.

[ Parent ]
Bill Young (FL-10)
I will almost guarantee he retires in 2010.  It will be one of our best pickup opportunities if it happens.  State Senator Charlie Justice would probably run on the Dem side.
possible Iowa retirements
I keep hearing Steve King (IA-05) may run for governor in 2010. I find that hard to believe, because I think Chet Culver would crush him, but Iowa Republicans believe Culver is going to be vulnerable in 2010, and King may want to take a shot.

Alternatively, Tom Latham (IA-04) may want to run for governor, but I think he likes his easy job in Washington.

Senator Chuck Grassley has previously said he would never retire, but if he develops a health issue or gets frustrated with being in the minority there is an outside chance he could retire. If he did, I bet Latham would run for his Senate seat. Tom Vilsack might run on the Democratic side, but only if Grassley retired.

Georgia
You may see some Georgia Republican members step down to run for governor.  Possibilities include John Linder (GA-07), Phil Gingrey (GA-11), and Jack Kingston (GA-01).  

You also can't forget Mike Castle (DE-AL).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Delaware and Georgia
Yeah, I think this was Castle's last election too. He'll retire in 2010 for health reasons.

As for the Georgia GOP gubernatorial primary, if all those three Congressmen you mentioned ran, it will be a clusterfuck the likes of which Georgians have never seen, and extremely entertaining.

[ Parent ]
What about Isakson?
I'd always heard, even as early as 2004, that Isakson really wants to be Governor of Georgia, and only ran for Senate to stay in the public eye in the meantime.

There may be quite a Republican scramble for the seat once Perdue is term-limited out.  

[ Parent ]
Isakson has said he's running for re-election.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Isakson already announced he's running for re-election
He announced it awhile back.  Of course he can always change his mind.
[ Parent ]
Lynn Westmoreland GA-3
is the most likely of the House Republicans to run for Governor in Georgia.

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove
[ Parent ]
Haha
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will meet with Joe Lieberman on Thursday to discuss how the disaffected, controversial Connecticut Democrat-Independent fits into the future of the party.

A source with knowledge of the situation says that Reid will likely tell Lieberman that he is being stripped of his committee chairs -- a retributive move for the former vice presidential nominee's anti-Obama, anti-Democrat advocacy on behalf of John McCain.


Ha ha! Fuck you, Joe.
I hope he storms off to the Republicans, only to realize they're not going to give him retroactive seniority.  So, he'll be the bottom Senator from an extremely weak minority.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
A video of the meeting between Reid and Lieberman has just been released.


[ Parent ]
i don't think we'll see retirements until at least 2009
i mean if there looks like a GOP wave (which most of us expect), a republican in a tough race this year may assume he/she'll have an easy race in 2010 and decide to run.  on the other hand, if the GOP remains unpopular, a few more will head for the exits.

any thoughts on what happened in the 3 cuban seats? (Diaz-Balarts, Ros-Lehtinen)?

In OR Greg Walden may retire
To run for governor, although after Smith lost Smith may also run as well and he would kick Walden's ass in the GOP primary.  That's a deep red district unfortunately.
Agreed. I've heard that rumor before.
I've also heard a more interesting rumor, that Peter Defazio wants to quit the House to become Governor. After eight years of Goldschmidt-Kulongoski dithering mediocrity, I hope DeFaz goes for it. Oregon needs a governor who can kick ass and take names, and Kitzhaber seems to have other priorities at the moment. (I personally would love to see Kitz be the surprise Obama pick for Health and Human Services. He'd be awesome in that role.)

OR-04 might be a Republican pickup if DeFazio leaves, but having DeFazio as governor is worth one House seat.  

[ Parent ]
OR-4 now has a D lean
Of about 40k votes, just more than in OR-1, and we have a deep bench of state legislators...
[ Parent ]
There's a chance that
Blago could appoint a sitting congressman/woman to President Obama's (love typing president obama!!!) soon to be vacant senate seat thus creating another illinois house vacancy.

any ideas who he'll appoint?

any ideas who Minner will appoint to Biden's vacant seat?

I got a feeling
Sen. Jesse Jackson Jr and Sen. Beau Biden
[ Parent ]
Beau Biden
I'd agree if he were not in deployment to Iraq for the forseeable future.  It would be very hard for him to carry out Senate duties being a deployed member of the National Guard.
[ Parent ]
As for sitting congressperson
The possible choices are Jesse Jackson Jr., Luis Gutierrez, or Jan Schakowsky. Bobby Rush probably doesn't want it, Danny Davis is probably too old, and Melissa Bean probably doesn't want it. My understanding is that Blago and Dan Lipinski aren't particularly close, and Foster and Halvorson are obviously too fresh for it. You can forget about Hare and Costello...I'm not sure that the Blagorgeous acknowledges downstate.

On a state level, Blago also has the choice of any one of 17 Democrats who is rumored to be challenging him in 2010 (well ok, not quite 17), but most prominently Att. Gen. Lisa Madigan and Comptroller Dan Hynes, with a question mark on Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. (I sincerely hope Blago doesn't choose outgoing Senate President Emil Jones, at which point you can say hello to Senator Kirk...)

I think Jack Markell will formally appoint Biden's replacement. Markell could go with John Carney, the current Lt. Gov who lost to Markell in the primary or maybe Beau Biden, but he's deployed in Iraq right now.

[ Parent ]
i like your names there
Att. Gen. Lisa Madigan and Comptroller Dan Hynes, for IL and Markell could go with John Carney, the current Lt. Gov who lost to Markell in the primary.  

These people have prominant statewide seats and have run in tough statewide races.  The rest of the names being floated are either too liberal to win statewide or are "legacy names (Biden or Jackson Jr))".  The idea of appointing a son/daughter to the seat of a Senator who has ascended to something else just seems abhorrent in America.  

[ Parent ]
agreed
nepotism looks bad.

Also, the idea of giving the seat to the other very qualified person who lost the gubernatorial primary sounds like a good idea.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
I'm hoping Minner appoints Carney
Should be the obvious choice. Despite the close primary loss, Carney is still very popular statewide.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!
[ Parent ]
South Carolina
Our neighbors to the south don't get enough attention, I think.  SC-01 and SC-02 both had very good numbers for us this time.  I remember thinking in the 90's that SC-02 might be vulnerable.  The one problem with that district: Lexington County, west of Columbia. It provides such monster GOP margins that it offsets the number of Democratic rural counties and the (apparently) moderating voters of Beaufort County.

I definitely hope Ketner keeps going and works harder in Myrtle Beach (Horry County) and we recruit a decent challenger in SC-02.

Mich-15 John Dingell
If Henry Waxman succeeds in taking the Chairmanship of the Energy and Commerce Committee from John Dingell who has been in the House since 1955, I would expect him to retire.  Too bad Lynn Rivers didn't defeat him in that primary back in 2002(?).  He has done more to promote global climate change than perhaps any other living American Republican or Democrat.

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove
Gerlach in PA
He wasn't challenged very strongly this time and still won by only 4%.
The big two in the US House I want to retire are
Young (FL-10) and Castle (DE-AL).  
AZ-03
I'm not sure why John Shadegg just didn't get it over with, but I'm sure he will retire. You hear me, Lord? Start fundraising now. I think AZ-03 could be a solid pick-up in a non-presidential year.
Oldest Members of the Senate
There are 12 Senators who are 75 or older.  One way or another, Stevens is gone. That leaves 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans born during or before FDR's fisrt year in office:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

Senator DOB Age
Robert Byrd (D-WV) November 20, 1917 (age 90)
Ted Stevens (R-AK) November 18, 1923 (age 84)
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) January 23, 1924 (age 84)
Daniel Inouye (D-HI) September 7, 1924 (age 84)
Daniel Akaka (D-HI) September 11, 1924 (age 84)
Arlen Specter (R-PA) February 12, 1930 (age 78)
Jim Bunning (R-KY) October 23, 1931 (age 77)
Ted Kennedy (D-MA) February 22, 1932 (age 76)
Dick Lugar (R-IN) April 4, 1932 (age 76)
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) June 22, 1933 (age 75)
Chuck Grassley (R-IA) September 17, 1933 (age 75)
Robert Foster Bennett (R-UT) September 18, 1933 (age 75)
 

Franken's deficit dwindling in MN-Sen
Howard Coble, NC-6
is 78 and has served in Congress since 1985.  He can't like being buried in the minority again. This Greensboro-based district would not necessarily be competiitive if it came open, but NC is changing, so you never know.
how much of the demographic change in NC
can be considered spill-over from VA?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Kay Bailey Hutchison
She's widely rumored to be running for governor in 2010 and will resign beforehand if she does so.
Message to Noriega: don't put away the artillery just yet!


Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Noriega?
Is he really the best we can do?
[ Parent ]
You would think Mr. Moneybags would come out and shoot for the open seat.
I forgot his name, but either him or Lampson.  
[ Parent ]
Chet Edwards has the best statewide profile
But he's still young and might want to wait for Texas to grow bluer before running statewide.
[ Parent ]
Pennyslvania?
You think Murtha or Kanjorski might retire?  And would that be better for us than them running again?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
PA-11 we're better off with a retirement
Barletta would probably run again in 2010 and I think we'd be better off with a new candidate.  I believe a Casey lives in the district and would probably hold the seat for us.

In PA-12 I don't think the GOP has much of a bench.  Sounds like we would hold that seat with Murtha or with someone else.

[ Parent ]
Ben Chandler (KY-06)
Heavily speculated to run against Bunning/for Bunning's open seat.  I worry about our ability to hold onto this seat.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Retirements
I am quite sure that Ben Chandler in Kentucky will run for Senate. He ran for Governor before, so he obviously has statewide ambitions. He was recruited heavily to run against McConnell but ultimately took a pass; given that Bunning barely won re-election in the GOP-friendly '04 year, I think Chandler figured that would be his best shot at a promotion.
Also, in IL-13, I would expect Rep. Judy Biggert (R) to retire. She is well into her 70s, and I heard rumors that the only reason she stayed is because the party begged her not to open up her R+4 Chicagoland district in a year with Obama possibly atop the ticket. Scott Harper, the 2008 candidate, held her to a 52%-43% margin, and I dont think she'll care for another tough re-election campaign.
Mark Kirk - IL-10
If not a Gubernatorial run then a Senate run IMHO. There is every chance he would get creamed in the Primary by a conservatice too :)  

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
Pearce in NM-02
I wonder if he'll challenge Teague to try and regain his old seat in 2010 after his disasterous run for Senate this year.  Then again he is probably crazy enough to try and run statewide again, maybe for Governor in 2010.  That would be nice.  He'd lose big again if he tried that.
I think Pearce is done.
Pearce has been humiliated by Udall and I don't think he can can recover. Heather Wilson on the other hand will run for NM Gov.

The New Mexico Republican Party is destroyed. They lost every single challenge to a Democratically controlled seat. And I'm not talking state Senate, every challenge. DA's, judges, you name it. To compound that, they lost a shitload of state seats, two congressional seats and one Senate seat. They have one statewide official left but other than him, they are done for quite some time.

[ Parent ]
Correction: GOP has one Public Resource Commission official as well. n/t

[ Parent ]
Tenn-4 Lincoln Davis
has already stated intentions to run for Governor of Tennessee in 2010.  That makes him a near certainty to retire from the House in 2010.

And given Lincoln Davis is my least favorite Democrat in the House I wish him bad luck in any future electoral endeavors.

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

2010 House Open Seat Watch: Rahm Is First To Go | 54 comments

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