Good

Van Hollen did a terrible job, unfortunately. Lots of missed opportunities given Obama's success.

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by: Aviram @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 16:05:52 PM CST

Agreed.

We did about as poorly as we could have given the environment.  

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by: Kanamit @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 16:07:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Well, we were praising Van Hollen earlier

and criticizing Rahm.

What I want to figure out first, before pointing fingers, is what went wrong.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 16:22:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Well what could CVH had done better

that he didn't already do? Certainly the D-trip worked their tails off in all the top-tier targeted races. They raised money hand over fist and had some pretty good recruitment scores.

Hard for me to kick CVH when I don't know what he could have done differently, and no one in this thread is saying anything on that score at all right now.

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by: James L. @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 16:25:10 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed

And he doesn't really control IE's. He did a fine job of recruiting and fundraising which is all he can do.

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by: Populista @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 17:09:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If Van Hollen doesn't control IE's for the DCCC, who does?

Whoever it is that controls the allocation of DCCC IE's did a better job than it appeared leading up to the election.  They were probably right in not expanding the field into more tier 2 races (despite the pleas of many at this site, myself included).  Many of these races turned out to be out of reach.

However, the IEs for the tier 1 races could have been better managed.  Money from races that turned into double-digit blowouts (AZ-01, CO-04, FL-24, IL-11) should have been used for close tier 1 and late-breaking tier 2 races.

This requires a pollster who can identify the close races with greater accuracy.  And, it requires abandoning the strategy of running up the score to scare away potential future opponents.

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by: DCal @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 17:50:28 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Jon Vogel, IE unit director

The IE unit and DCCC cannot coordinate from what I understand.

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by: Populista @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 19:21:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I was using IE to mean direct spending by the DCCC

as it is labeled in the SSP reports (not coordinating with other IEs such as Emily's List).  It seems likely Van Hollen is responsible for the allocation of DCCC expenditures, not just fundraising and recruiting.

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by: DCal @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 19:56:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed

Lots of bitchin' and moanin' after back to back sweeping wins for he good guys.  I'm still waiting to hear the specific, evidence-based criticisms.

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by: sicembears @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 21:09:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think the perception that Obama would win...

affected people's down-ballot races. Since (hypothetically) they viewed President-elect Obama as a near certainty, some moderate Dems and indies hedged by ticket splitting down ballot.

Again, just a theory.

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by: jeffmd @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 16:29:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Presidential years are just hard on down-ballot races.

Obama did appear to have coattails in a states (VA and NM) but more importantly McCain did a good job of turning out the GOP base. There's just nothing that CVH or D-trip could have done.

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by: nrimmer @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 16:35:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Disagree

I think Van Hollen did a good job. Sure, I can complain about too much money here and too little there, but I could do that no matter who was in charge; I'll never agree with every decision.

In general, it seems to me that money went where it was needed. But money isn't everything in an election (otherwise we'd have seen a lot more self-funded California Senators who kept losing to less well-financed opponents). We were hoping for a wave and didn't quite get it. But we picked up a healthy number of seats. Sure, there were candidates I would have liked to have seen win who didn't, but I'm not going to blame Van Hollen for the results.

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by: dsimon @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 17:35:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

As a sidenote

and a (saddened) continuation of my series:

blah blah blah landslide blah blah blah +50 blah blah blah filibuster-proof blah blah blah.

Well, filibuster-proof is still vaguely possible.  If Minnesota, Oregon, and (miraculously) Alaska go our way, and then we pull it out in Georgia.

However, I think the new running joke will be the Throw Off the Island List.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 16:35:04 PM CST

So who's next

Definitely torn on CVH's leadership of the DCCC. Until I see it proven, I don't think voters split ballots because of a desire for divided government. A mixed night, overall, down ballot.

So who's next at the helm? My guess is Debbie Wasserman Schultz, which makes me a little nervous, considering her anemic support of Annette Taddeo, etc. Tough to worry about more and better Democrats if you protect pseudo-moderate Republicans (not that DWS was alone in this phenomenon).

Any other ideas?

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by: Chris Kelly @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 17:02:45 PM CST

Annette "42%" Taddeo?

C'mon.  That's like still complaining about them not getting involved in IA-04 after we found out Becky Greenwald only got 39%.  Polls looked better in IA-04 too.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 17:09:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Um

But don't you think that Taddeo and Greenwald would have done better with a little more support, especially early on?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 17:56:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Everyone would do better with more support. It's a faulty arguement.

You have to draw the line somewhere.  We don't have unlimited resources.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 20:58:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed, but....

There is a difference between supporting Republican incumbents in the press and getting real resources ($) to a district. I'm only asking that we don't do the first.

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by: Chris Kelly @ Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 00:09:45 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Let's work on the $10,000 for 435 project

that WoodyNYC has been talking about.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 11:57:10 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Agree

It's a very good idea.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 14:19:41 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Let's Hope It's Not Wasserman-Schultz

Right, James?

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 20:21:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

So who next?

At Conference Chair and at DCCC.

Will Van Hollan run to succeed Rahm? I hope so. Also I think the main contenders for DCCC are DWS and Xavier Becerra. I'm hoping Becerra gets the job.  

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by: Populista @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 17:11:49 PM CST

From 2006

From The Hill, a 2006 article: Outgoing DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) said last summer that he would not seek a second term because of family considerations. Democratic aides agree only on the uncertainty surrounding the vacancy and the members on the short list to fill it. They include Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), who, according to Democratic sources, appears to have the inside track over other possible contenders such as Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), Artur Davis (Ala.), Kendrick Meek (Fla.), Mike Thompson (Calif.), and Xavier Becerra (Calif.).

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by: TXObserver @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 18:25:13 PM CST

Bottom line

Between 2006 and today we've gained no less than:
The Presidency, with probably the most progressive President in history.

Gained no less than 51 additional U.S. House seats (30 in 2006/3 specials/18 in 2008), probably a couple more pending recounts.

No less than 12 additional U.S. Senate seats(6 in 2006/6 in 2008), and possibly MN and maybe AK pending recounts/special elections.

Gained a net of 7 additional Governorships.

Taken over a solid majority of the state legislative bodies.

Not bad for a little over 2 years of work!

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 21:53:39 PM CST

Four years of work.

Three if you don't count the 2004-2005 season when the Iraq war hadn't yet soured.

Here's to another four years of hard work and electoral success!!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 11:55:02 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Sebelius should get an appointment

She's qualified for HHS or a couple other possible positions.  A huge bonus to appointing her would be that it would allow Democratic Lt. Governor Mark Parkinson nearly two full years of incumbency and a big advantage in 2010 for what would have been an open Governor's race.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 14:10:12 PM CST

So should Boyda

Boyda fought the good fight and didn't flinch, even though the district just proved too tough to hold. She may not be high enough up to merit a cabinet level job, but certainly she ought to be slotted in somewhere where she could take over within a few years.

Maybe Interior?

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by: Englishlefty @ Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 15:44:41 PM CST

[ Parent ]