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NC-Sen, NC-Gov: Liddy Dole is Going to Lose

by: James L.

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 4:44 PM EST

SurveyUSA is out with a new round of North Carolina polls, and the results look pretty similar to other recent polls (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/18-20 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 50 (46)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 43 (45)
Chris Cole (L): 5 (5)
(MoE: ±3.8%)

Bev Perdue (D): 48 (43)
Pat McCrory (R): 47 (46)
Mike Munger (L): 4 (7)
(MoE: ±3.8%)

McCain leads Obama by a single point here, 49-48, but turnout will determine it all. Among those who have already voted (57% of the sample), Hagan leads Dole by 58-39, Perdue leads McCrory by 55-41, and Obama leads McCain by 56-41.

A Hagan win seems like a safe bet right now (and how sweet that is, really), but the Presidential and Gubernatorial races seem set to come down to every last vote.

James L. :: NC-Sen, NC-Gov: Liddy Dole is Going to Lose

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NC-Sen, NC-Gov: Liddy Dole is Going to Lose | 20 comments

and SUSA

has consistently been the most favorable pollster to Republians in North Carolina.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 15:46:44 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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Yup

Though they seem to have snapped back into line with this one.

by: James L. @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 15:48:32 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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I've also noticed

that outside of Minnesota polls always overstate third party support. I doubt the libretarian candidate here and in Georgia will do that well.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 15:50:39 PM CST

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If the early vote numbers

Are accurate Liddy Dole, like Gordon Smith, has already lost. By my off-hand calculations in order for Dole to win she'd have to get 70% of election day voters.

by: safi @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 16:06:47 PM CST

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Edit: I meant 60%

by: safi @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 16:09:23 PM CST

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Starting to think McCain will win NC by a slim margin.

The final polls seem to be trending his way in NC. However Obama more than offsets that potential loss with leads in most OH polls, all VA polls, and some polls out of states like IN. Still looks like Obama will end up around 350 EV's.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 16:24:20 PM CST

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The internals show

that the sample was 46D/36R/17I. The actual breakdown in NC is 46D/32R/22I. Not a big difference, but it looks like the Independents are undersampled and the GOP is oversampled. A few point difference could mean Obama is ahead by a fraction of a point.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 17:18:11 PM CST

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Obama will win NC. I think the polls are probably understating his lead by 1%-3% (see Cellphone effect). Also, since his strong supporters have already voted, his incredible GOTV operation here will get out a lot of marginal supporters tomorrow.

Looking at the PPP internals, we probably need to top a 70% turnout for McCain to win (assuming he wins by 14% tomorrow) - not likely. In the end Obama will carry my state by 50-150 thousand votes.

by: LanceS @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 16:31:02 PM CST

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James I think a title change is in order.

I've become a fan of your ongoing "(Insert Republican Officeholder's Name Here) is going to lose" headers.

Can we get one for Liddy? Pleeeasssse.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 17:05:33 PM CST

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Done.

I couldn't resist your request.

by: James L. @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 17:06:57 PM CST

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hahahaha

Good idea, hopefully there are a couple more before they actually all do lose.

by: Andrew @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 17:09:51 PM CST

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Excellent.

This one is especially gratifying after all that shit she pulled.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 17:25:31 PM CST

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How about this one...

"Liddy Dole about to be JOBLESS!"

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 17:36:48 PM CST

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I'd prefer

'Liddy Dole: yet another job she couldn't hold'....

by: Baystater @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 17:57:38 PM CST

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Once Bob Dole lost

He went from elections to erections. Maybe Liddy could pimp some sort of female enhancement?

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 18:12:50 PM CST

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I think

You just ruined my dinner.

by: safi @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 18:33:11 PM CST

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OOPS

Sorry. Maybe Liddy could be a lobbyinst for Godless America?

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 18:39:27 PM CST

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More like a lobbyist for

Godawful America.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:23:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

So what happens

I hear Dole made a big loan to her own campaign recently. What is the law on that? When she loses does she in effect lose that "loan" since she can no longer raise money for office?

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:36:53 PM CST

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I'm sure that

Loan will go away quickly with all the six figure lobbying job offers she's going to start getting Wednesday.

by: safi @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:41:35 PM CST

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NC-Sen, NC-Gov: Liddy Dole is Going to Lose | 20 comments