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AK-Sen, AK-AL: Begich, Berkowitz Post Decent Leads in Final Hays Poll

by: James L.

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 1:52 PM EST

Hays Research Group (11/2, likely voters):

Mark Begich (D): 49
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 42
Other: 2
(MoE: ±4.9%)

And for the at-large House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49
Don Young (R-inc): 43
Other: 1
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Sounds about right to me. The fact that these two crumb-bums (Young and Stevens) are polling even in the low 40s is a testament to just how crusty of a GOP-loving state Alaska is.

But here's a fun bonus finding: the McCain/Palin ticket leads Obama/Biden by only 48-45 according to this poll. Amusing!

James L. :: AK-Sen, AK-AL: Begich, Berkowitz Post Decent Leads in Final Hays Poll

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AK-Sen, AK-AL: Begich, Berkowitz Post Decent Leads in Final Hays Poll | 10 comments

Surprises for the night (among many):

Both Barack Obama and Ted Stevens will hit 45 percent. I agree.

by: Andy Dufresne @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 12:57:52 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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Obama/Palin number an Outlier

I think the Obama/McCain number is an outlier. Every other poll has McCain higher. It's possible that Stevens is helping to drag him down a bit though.

I do think Stevens and Young are toast, but they'll probably do decently. I agree with the other commenter that they could feasibly reach ~ 45%.

by: Steinbach @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 13:18:51 PM CST

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Not Good Numbers All Things Considered

The Obama-McCain numbers seem like an outlier and may indicate a Democratic friendly sample. That would make the Senator and Representative races much closer than what I thought or hoped they would be. Or, perhaps, Obama really is about this close to McCain. I'd prefer stronger numbers for Begich and Berkowitz, especially from a Democratic pollster.

by: sicembears @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 13:37:29 PM CST

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Actually

Kos mentioned that another campaign shows that the pres. race is in the single digits, so this might not be an outlier after all

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

by: DGM @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 13:54:49 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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maybe not so much

If all the Undecideds lean Republican, then it's a 55R/45D generic national partisan split, which is probably within 1% or 2% of the actual split in the Alaska electorate. (Bush got just under 60% and maxed out the Republican vote in '04, national trend has been to Democrats at 1% per year.)

by: Baystater @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 14:21:00 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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We should still

Win this race. But, the fact that neither of these guys are at 50, is kind of scary.

by: safi @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 15:35:24 PM CST

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Doesn't surprise me

that the Presidential race has tightened in Alaska. The GOP in Alaska has 2 factions (the Palin Conservative faction) and the more moderate faction (Stevens, Young). The moderate GOP faction is not that happy with Palin and her comments towards Uncle Ted.

Alaska's politics is much like Middle East politics.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 15:36:14 PM CST

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"Alaska's politics is much like Middle East politics."

With slightly less violence, perhaps.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:26:49 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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And a USSR economy

The most socialized economy in the U.S. Maybe Russia being so close rubbed off on them.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:38:46 PM CST

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