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GA-Sen: Runoff Seems Likely

by: James L.

Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 2:11 PM EDT

Rasmussen (10/30, likely voters, 10/22 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 43 (45)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (47)
Allen Buckley (L): 7 (1)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

That's a big surge for Buckley, who perhaps got a boost from his recent debate performances -- or perhaps this is mostly just noise.

Research 2000 (for the Great Orange Satan) has a different picture (10/28-30, likely voters, 10/14-15 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 46 (45)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (47)
Allen Buckley (L): 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4%)

Among those who have already voted (12% of the sample), Martin leads by 56-39. The good news for Martin is that he's running ahead of Obama in the early vote -- albeit just slightly (Obama leads McCain 55-40 among these voters, and trails McCain 47-44 overall). For Martin to have a shot at coming ahead of Chambliss on November 4th (or even taking 50% plus one), he'd need to run ahead of Obama here -- and earlier polls from SurveyUSA were suggesting the opposite in the early vote.

A small chance exists that Martin could come out on top without a runoff on Tuesday, but I wouldn't place my money on it.

UPDATE: A new CNN/Time poll has Chambliss leading Martin by 53-44 among likely voters (his best margin in quite some time), but only by 48-47 among registered voters. The problem with this poll? It didn't include Buckley.

James L. :: GA-Sen: Runoff Seems Likely

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GA-Sen: Runoff Seems Likely | 6 comments

So is that a good thing?

We want a runoff here, as compared to a Chambliss victory, right?

Or do people think Martin's chances in a runoff are so bad that we really need an (improbable) outright win on Tuesday?

by: JR12 @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:20:27 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Well...

Winning it outright would be the best, obviously. However that is probably the least likely possibility.

The next best possibility would be forcing a run-off where both parties invest a lot of money, although Libertarians would probably fall toward Chambliss and our chances go down.

An outright Chambliss win is possible but still not probable. He seems to have a 47-48% ceiling here.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:28:34 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Well of course

A run-off is preferable to an outright Chambliss win. I doubt we'd win a run-off, but it's worth a try. Maybe conservatives will be depressed enough after the general election that they won't bother voting in the run-off.

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:28:56 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Depends on who you talk to really

Of course the best scenario would be for Martin to outright, and the worst scenario would be Chambliss winning outright. But there's 2 scenarios to look at for whether it'd be a victory or loss. Runoff > Loss scenario would look to a Landrieu 2002 / Francine Busby runoff where despite the mood of the electorate, LA continued to buck the national trend and re-elect a Democrat, or in CA-50, it went back to its normal red leanings despite Busby almost taking it outright on the first round. Georgia is still a normally Red state, so it's very reasonable to believe that the blacks who went out to vote on Nov 4th or before will not come back in December.

However, you can also look to a more Rodriguez / Childers view: the momentum was so strong behind Ciro Rodriguez that despite his 20% showing vs. 48% for Bonilla, the mood and the optimistic national organizations put Rodriguez over the top. Travis Childers also overtook Davis in the first round, and ended up winning the runoff by a margin that shocked most political observers - 8%.

by: KainIIIC @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:33:10 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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CA-50 was a special case.

Busby made a last minute gaffe. It would have been close otherwise (though she probably wouldn't win).

by: Kanamit @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:43:12 PM CDT

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This "it's reasonable to believe that blacks won't show up to vote again" stuff is crap.

The logic doesn't quite work. "Georgia's a red state therefore blacks who voted in Nov will not turn out again?" Eh.

Assumptions without facts will not help us with the GA run-off. The only thing we can do is prepare to throw money Martin's way and hope the DSCC can come up with some brutal attacks against Chambliss.

by: nrimmer @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 14:26:41 PM CDT

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