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KY-Sen: Lunsford Closing In

by: James L.

Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 3:50 PM EDT

Garin Hart Yang for Bruce Lunsford (10/26-27, likely voters, 10/6-7 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 45 (45)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 47 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here we are, a few days before the election, and the Minority Leader of the United States Senate is ahead by only two points and under the 50% threshold. That's hardly a position of strength for the mighty McConnell. The polling memo, which is available below the fold, also notes that the sample may be underestimating African-American turnout by a significant margin -- enough to perhaps give Lunsford an extra couple of points.

On another note, Lunsford has a pair of new ads out -- one featuring excerpts from a stump speech from the Bubba Queen herself, Hillary Clinton (what an extraordinary sign of the times), and the other featuring a famous pack of bloodhounds.

UPDATE: The latest Rasmussen poll has McConnell ahead by 51-44, essentially unchanged from last week, when Mitch led by 50-43. Rasmussen has been a bit friendlier to McConnell than other pollsters have in recent weeks, but we'll find out which poll is more accurate soon enough.

LATER UPDATE: Mason-Dixon has McConnell up by 47-42, which is an improvement for him over late September, when the race was nearly tied at 45-44.

James L. :: KY-Sen: Lunsford Closing In

Tags: Bubba Queen, KY-Sen, Polls, (All Tags)

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KY-Sen: Lunsford Closing In | 6 comments

Hot damn!

I would think if the Democrats can get to 60 on election night, it would help Martin should that race go to a runoff. It would negate the "stop Obama/the Democratsfrom having a monopoly on power" argument because the Democrats would already have a filibuster-proof majority. It would also help the argument that Martin would be better able to get things done for Georgia in the majority with the President being from the same party than Chambliss would in a powerless minority.

However, this looks like an internal poll and should be noted as such.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 15:03:04 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Very good

I'm starting to think we may be able to pick this up.

by: Populista @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 15:04:06 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Yang is a Democratic pollster

I think this poll is coming out to refute the new Rasmussen that has

McConnell (R) 51% (50%)
Lunsford (D) 44% (43%)

Regardless, Lunsford is at 45-44% in both polls and hasn't gained. Democrats need one last push to ditch mitch but I am not sure it will be enough.

by: gomer @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 15:08:46 PM CDT

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Three thoughts

First, I think at the end of the day McConnell will hold on to his seat, but he will be chastened and have a drained campaign treasury.

Second, Hillary knows how to make a soundbyte.

Third, the bloodhounds ad is awesome, and the music is just right.

by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 15:37:49 PM CDT

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These Senate races are not looking as good

It now looks as if we wont get Minnesota and the best we can hope for is to get GA in a runoff. The best we can hope for is 59 seats after the Georgia runoff.

by: BillNolan @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 17:03:59 PM CDT

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Definitely, I'm with you.

I'm hoping we can hit 59 before the run-off but it's not looking promising. I'm sure you and I both know that DSCC is going to throw everything at these races so we'll just have to hope it's enough to push a few over the line.

My guess is we're at 58, not counting the run-off.

by: nrimmer @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 20:51:56 PM CDT

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