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NC-Sen: Three Very Different Polls

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 2:34 PM EDT

Rasmussen (10/29, likely voters, 10/8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 52 (49)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46 (44)
(MoE: ±4.0%)

Rasmussen looks very good for Kay Hagan in the North Carolina senate race: six is the biggest lead she's had in a Rasmussen poll, and there aren't enough undecideds left for Dole to close the gap. Hagan's favorables continue to climb (53-42) while Dole's slide (46-50). The sample was taken yesterday, so it's unclear whether the flap over the 'godless' ad had an effect one way or the other.

Mason-Dixon (10/22-24, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kay Hagan (D): 42
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Mason-Dixon also gives Dole 46, but that's where the similarity stops. They say Hagan trails by 4, with lots of undecideds still on the table. Note the dates on this poll... this is part of the same plate of stale cookies as that Georgia poll that Mason-Dixon apparently sat on for a week. Oddly, despite Mason-Dixon's focus on the south, this is their first poll of this race, and it's the first poll by anyone in almost a month to give the edge to Dole.

UPDATE: One more North Carolina poll to throw on the heap, this time from National Journal. This one seems to confirm Rasmussen, right down to the 6-point spread.

National Journal (10/23-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kay Hagan (D): 43
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 37
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Crisitunity :: NC-Sen: Three Very Different Polls

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NC-Sen: Three Very Different Polls | 10 comments

I don't trust Mason-Dixon

especially if the poll was in the field before Rasmussen's.

I'll believe Hagan has taken a hit when I see it confirmed somewhere else. It seems that the "Godless" ad is backfiring on Dole.

by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 13:37:02 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Agreed

I posted this on the Martin thread but it applies here as well.

I did a quick check of RCP and here is Mason Dixon's last presidential poll for certain states listed first and the current RCP average listed second. I only checked states listed below and CO, NV, and NM which didn't have a recent MD poll.

NC Tie O+2.5
MO M+1 O+0.2
OH M+1 O+5.8
VA O+2 O+6.5
PA O+4 O+9.5
FL M+1 O+3.5
GA M+6 M+4.2

by: sicembears @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 15:46:15 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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I rarely go out of my way to discredit a poll I don't like but...

Bluntly, Mason-Dixon sucks balls this cycle. They have a poll out today of McCain within 4 points of Obama in PA. They showed a tied race in Michigan only to have the old man pull out because their internals were beyond terrible. Finally, they put a crap poll showing the NH Senate race tied.

As my fav Alaskan governor would say, thanks but no thanks M-D.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 13:42:48 PM CDT

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Nate gives them

fairly high marks for the primaries. But, yeah, a lot of their stuff in the general election cycle has seemed to have a Republican house effect of a few points, compared with everyone else. I don't know if they're using an old-school LV model or what happened.

by: Crisitunity @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 13:46:48 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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I skimmed

a ton of polls over at 538 and, actually, it looks like Mason-Dixon's lean seems confined mostly to the south, aside from the aforementioned fuckup where they showed Michigan as tied when everyone else was registering McCain's collapse. They actually have some of the most pro-Dem numbers in NH and IA, for instance. But, yeah, for FL, NC, and VA, and GA to a lesser extent, they tend to lean GOP by a few points.

by: Crisitunity @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 13:52:37 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Is it Mason-Dixon that consistently shows young voters consistently favoring Repubs?

by: Boston Raven @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 22:05:21 PM CDT

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that would be SurveyUSA I think.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:32:02 AM CDT

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The Mason-Dixon Poll is Off

http://www.wral.com/asset/news...

They only polled blacks at 20%, and had whites at 78%. Blacks make up 21% of the voters in NC, and whites are 75%. Plus, having Obama atop the ballot will drive black turnout even higher.

The DEM/GOP/IND breakdown was 47-36-17. The actual breakdown is 46-32-22.

These factors have overstated Dole's numbers and understated Hagan's. I also think there is going to be a big pushback against Dole's godless ad. Hagan's response is excellent.

by: bear83 @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 15:46:46 PM CDT

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Mason-Dixon has a good reputation

But of three polls, it's the only one giving Dole a lead, and a significant one, so I do not think it's right.

by: RandySF @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 16:20:03 PM CDT

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This religion ad

That Dole ran, that's not an ad you run if your winning.