Not everything is going to break our way

I think this and KY-02 are going to be two that don't break our way. It's odd beacuse they should have been a better opportunity then MO-09 which I think Baker will win.

I'm also not feeling good about FL-21. It's one of the only districts the DCCC is getting outspent in terms of IE's and in terms of candidate spending our guy is getting outspent more then 2-1 and has a big cap in CoH.

---

by: Populista @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 23:46:32 PM CDT

I was just looking at that...

I can't understand why they are spending so much on FL-21 and completely leaving FL-25 behind.  What the hell?  Are they not worried about him or what?

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 23:52:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The just filed

$442K against Garcia a few hours ago -- so there is some concern.

It would have made more sense, I think, to have combined their giant FL-21 broadcast buys into ads that hit both Garcia and Martinez (same Miami media market, after all), but well, I'm not Tom Cole. And thank God for that.

---

by: James L. @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 23:58:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Taking a dive in FL-18?

And looks like Ros-Lehtinen gets special treatment. Notice that the DCCC has avoided giving any help to Annette Taddeo in FL-18. Remember that Debbie Wasserman-Schultz is apparently her best bosom buddy who had to be dragged and threatened into even endorsing the three South Florida challengers. Now the money goes to two of them, but not to Debbie W-S's Republican sorority sister.

WTF?

Ros-Lehtinen may be a smoother operator than the Diaz-Balart pair, but if there was ever a year to go after this seat, this is the year. And if one ad works against two members of the Cuban Mafia, why not one ad against all three? The same demographic trends and changes in political attitudes among the Cuban-American voters will affect all three districts.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 09:03:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well

Keep in mind that the IEs are sort of misleading for 21 and 25 -- the DCCC is hitting both Diaz-Balarts in the same ads, but they split the buy in half for each incumbent in the reporting form. So a, say, $600K buy counts as $300K on FL-21 and $300K on FL-25. The NRCC on the other hand has focused its firepower solely on Martinez (although they did put up a big buy today against Garcia -- which I have yet to file in the SSP tracker).

---

by: James L. @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 23:57:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I know

but still. It seems as if the NRCC is outspending the DCCC in FL-21 while being outspent in FL-25 even with that factored in and Garcia is a lot close in terms if candidate expenditures and CoH parity.

---

by: Populista @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:02:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well

Not sure exactly what factors a Cole NRCC considers, but I wouldn't be surprised if it has something to do with the fact that Lincoln has been an incumbent for a much longer period of time. Ultimately the NRCC had to pick a set of races to defend and it looks like FL-21 was a priority over FL-25.

---

by: Progressive America @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:15:43 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Think Barnes' Biggest Obstacle....

....is that most of MO-06 lies outside of metropolitan Kansas City, and her association with "the big city" is not necessarily a feather in her cap to the people of Grant City and Chillicothe.

---

by: Mark @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:38:58 AM CDT

that makes a lot of sense

Maybe this recruit wasn't so great after all.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 05:53:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Always a success

It's always the right thing to contest every race, a part of the 50-state strategy. If she raised lots of money on her own and built some organization on her own, it's a good thing even if she loses. Meanwhile she has tied down her opponent and kept him from meddling in other races around the state. And maybe she will learn from this race and be a stronger candidate two years from now. (I don't know what kind of race she had to win to become Mayor some years back.)

And we do have other races in Missouri. Obama looks ready to carry the state's E.V.s ,and our man Nixon is on track to become the next governor.

We started the year hearing about the DCCC recruiting Kay Barnes to make a run for a House seat in MO. Then we got an open seat when a Repub incumbent decided to go for the governorship, and we got another good Dem with a good shot in that race. If we win one of these two seats we are doing O.K.

Missouri will be hot again next cycle. A sitting Repub Senator just might retire, or become target of a challenge. And the races for the legislature, because they'll be redistricting after the Census. With just a tweak of the llines, MO-06 could be much easier for a Democrat when Obama runs for re-election four years from now.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 08:50:52 AM CDT

[ Parent ]