Wow

This is one where the DCCC has done an ok job on, they probably should have already spent an additional $400,000 like yesterday, rather than multi-million dollar buys in generally easier victories. If you're going to go in to a district like this one, then make a buy that will take the seat, not just come close. I see they're getting ready for another ad, so hopefully it will be huge. It would be awesome to take this district.

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by: Progressive America @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:09:49 PM CDT

Well...

This is an extremely cheap media market, so the DCCC's buys here have actually been pretty large.

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by: James L. @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:15:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ahh

Perhaps then, guess it's just a matter of going in earlier rather than using more in such a short time span.

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by: Progressive America @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:35:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good news for Jill Long Thompson

She's only down by 16, about the same margin as Obama. The IN gubernatorial polls have been all over the place, though the presidential polls have been remarkably constant.

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by: MichiganLiberal @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:12:29 PM CDT

I think

Long Thompson's strength is in Northeast Indiana, she was Souder's predecessor. So she should run better in her home district...

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by: micha.1976 @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:20:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

This would be stunning/awesome

I think this district, Josh Segall, Judy Feder, Tom Perriello, Alice Kryzan, Annette Taddeo, and Dennis Shulman will probably be the early indicators of what kind of night this is going to be nationwide. If we win a majority of these, then we might be looking at a 40-50 seat pickup in the House.

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by: Ron @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:30:18 PM CDT

Perriello

Really hoping we pull that one off. Out of the ones you listed, I think Perriello and Kryzan are possible. Poor Shulman has to face that very expensive New York market, hope he can get something on the air. The Bloomberg endorsement looks nice.

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by: Progressive America @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:38:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Tom has run a great, energetic race

I am still of the opinion that Judy Feder is more likely to flip her seat than Tom is (although I believe that both have a very good chance on November 4), just because the 10th CD here in Virginia is probably the fastest-changing electorate in the nation. Obama will win the district by 10 points if current polling is to be believed; if 90% of Obama voters pull the lever for Judy, she probably wins.

With Obama and Warner (especially) at the top of the ticket, we have a legitimate chance of four House pickups here in VA, but I imagine they will all be tight if we flip 'em. Tom has probably run the best race out of them all, but VA-05 is the most difficult district of the four.

I too was surprised by the Bloomberg/Shulman endorsement. Hopefully that has some effect.  

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by: Ron @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:51:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not a chance

Wolf is way more popular and entrenched. Judy isn't the right fit for the district but I think her work is going to turn the district blue in the future. There is a reason the DCCC is spending in VA-05 and not VA-10. We've got a strong chance there beacuse of Tom's strong campaign and Goode's extremest ways.

By the way here's Tom's latest great ad rebutting Goode's "New York Liberal with a scary beard ad"

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by: Populista @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 14:14:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

WOW

I LOVE that backdrop trick!  That is hilarious!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 16:47:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not a chance?

Actually, there is a 1-in-4 possibility that Feder wins and Perriello doesn't -- as there are four possible result sets of these two congressional districts (both win; both lose; Judy wins, Tom loses; Tom wins, Judy loses). We can argue how likely each outcome is, but I don't need to be preached the conventional wisdom on these races from someone half a country away.

I get that you have become personally attached to the VA-05 race, but that doesn't substitute for facts and demographics. Fact is, VA-05 is less Democratic than VA-10. In 2004, the two districts had comparable performances in Bush/Cheney v. Kerry/Edwards (BC + 13 in VA-05; BC + 11 in VA-10). In 2006, however, VA-05 went for George Allen by nearly 9 points while VA-10 went all the way for Webb by a point. Judy lost two years ago to Wolf by approx. 40k votes, approx. the same margin (in terms of number of votes) that Goode won over Al Weed by. However, VA-10 is a much more populous district than VA-05, so that 40k votes is a smaller percentage. Since the November '06 election, a net of approx. 30-35k new voters have registered in VA-10 (final stats not available), approx. 20k in VA-05. And, I would argue that the trajectory of VA-10 in terms of Democratic performance is such that Judy has a better overall chance than Tom of winning the district based on the demographics.

You state that Judy isn't the right fit for the district. Easy to say if you've never lived here, but it's simply not true. Over 75% of the population in the district is in Fairfax/Prince William/Loudoun counties, and Fairfax and Loudoun comprise nearly 70%. This is a socially liberal district, rapidly changing, and Judy's stances fit squarely in the Democratic mainstream of this district.

VA-05 is much more socially liberal, which makes Tom's job more difficult. He has done a better job than Judy of pitching is economic populism, but I don't see how you can state that he's a better fit overall for his more conservative district than Judy is hers, as both are progressive to moderate liberals.

That's the score from on the ground in Virginia from one set of eyes. You're welcome to your own opinion, of course, but those of us that live in Virginia might actually have a better feel for this than those that don't.  

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by: Ron @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 17:39:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But

are you from REAL Virgina or FAKE Virgina. That is the question.

Seriously. Don't get so worked up. We'll see who's right on election day, I'm stating my feel for the race not claiming to be a master political pundit who has deep knowable of the district and has lived there for my entire life. I think Perriello will win and Feder will not. I hope I'm wrong and they both win but I just don't see it.

I base this off

-Wolf being around for a long time and seeming to be more popular then Goode who is less entrenched and less popular.

Perriello has released internals and SurveyUSA confirmed VA05 has tightened significantly since 2006. I have not seen anything from VA-10, if Feder has internals showing her close she should release them.

-Perriello, from my view is running a better campaign then Feder. He has hired a ad maker with a proven record of winning tough races while Feder's ad's have been pretty much traditional, bland ads. He's opened a lot of offices and has a strong field team, maybe Feder has too but I have not heard much about her field strategy.

DCCC is spending on VA05 but not VA-10. They have access to information I don't, that doesn't mean they are right about everything but if Feder was close I doubt the DCCC would stay on the sidelines.

Looking at demographics I agree, Feder's district should be much more winnable. But that's not everything in politics, if it was true Maine would be a easy win and Georgia would not be close.

If Feder comes closer in terms of percentage of the vote then Perriello does I'll put "Ron was right" in my signature from the day after election day until Inauguration. How about that.

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by: Populista @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 22:36:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Awesome

put everything into this district. I think we can win.

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by: Populista @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:36:07 PM CDT

If Obama is within 15 points in this district ...

... he will most likely win Indiana next Tuesday.  Remember we need to flip from basically 60-40 Republican to 50-50 or better -- and this district is an area I think we can pick up more than the needed share of that.

And the reason the Fort Wayne News Sentinal probably framed this in terms of bad news for Obama is that it is a very, very conservative paper that endorsed McCain saying that while he wasn't conservative enough, he was the more conservative candidate.  Fort Wayne's other paper (they're one of the few cities their size that has two major papers), the Journal Gazette, is probably the most consistently liberal sizable daily newspaper in the state.  Think of the Times/Post difference in Washington and you get a sense of how far apart Fort Wayne's two papers are.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:39:44 PM CDT

i like the point about knowing early about this race

with all the talk about a late night and a close race (still possible of course), i've been thinking about how the night will go.

my expectation is that the first news of the night will be IN - pres too close to call (for the first time in decades), KY - McCain wins, McConnell too close to call, IN frosh win (Hill, Donnelly, Ellsworth), Souder TOO CLOSE TO CALL and i'm hoping the boswell/guthrie remains too close to call as well.

in 06, the news that yarmuth won early told me most of what i needed to know about that election.

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by: st paul sage @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 13:36:47 PM CDT

Add one more thing

I think you're absolutely right on how the early news from IN and KY will be -- with the addition that, unfortunately, we will have re-elected Mitch Daniels Governor.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 14:07:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Is anyone seriously going to bed if all that happens?

No chance.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 17:31:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm staying up at least late enough

to get the final scores in CA-04, CA-46, CA-03, CA-50, CA-26, and AK-Sen.

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by: Ron @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 17:40:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Is CA-26 still competitive?

I haven't heard much noise coming from that.  Also, CA-45 (Bono Mack's seat).

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 18:05:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LEADING?

Montagano LEADING Souder 44-41?

Whoa.  That's even more awesome than the others.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 18:06:44 PM CDT

That's what it says

Though I can't say I know anything about the polling outfit.  I tend to believe R2K over some company I've never heard of that uses an MoE that big.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 19:17:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]