The Treatment of TX-22 By Both Parties....

....does indicate that Lampson may be headed towards undeserved defeat, but I'd still be surprised if it was double-digits.  I can't see the incumbent Lampson underperforming Tom DeLay's 2004 challenger (Morrison???).

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by: Mark @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 20:33:33 PM CDT

Yes

However, this would be a district that we would almost surely lose in 2010 anyway if somehow Lampson did hang on.  Its almost better to get rid of it now.  

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by: BillNolan @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 20:46:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Huh?

Why better to lose now?  If Lampson can survive this year, there's no reason he cannot win in 2010.  Demographic trends should only get better for him and he'll have another two years of incumbency.  On the down side, it's unlikely 2010 will be as favorable an environment as 2008.  If he makes it past 2010, he'll be redistricted into a safer seat.

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by: sicembears @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 14:36:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

TX-22 is returning to its roots

Lampson's 2006 upset was an anomaly because it was under the shadow of Tom Delay. Now that the 'Hammer''s gone, the district is returning to the GOP. No surprise.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 20:45:58 PM CDT

For the time being...

Only for the time being.  Time is on our side.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 20:58:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

DCCC ad on Burnt Orange Report

I don't know nothin' about embedding videos, but here's the link to the BOR front page with a story on TV ads in Texas races, and the video.

This one is pure negative campaigning, you know, the stuff that often works very well.

Pete Olsen is being investigated for old fashioned voter fraud. Records indicate that one year Olsen voted in Virgina, then Connecticut, then Virginia again. Final frame has Olsen's mug shot beside Tom DeLay's.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 20:54:58 PM CDT

Zogby is a crap pollster

I can't understand why anyone pays any attention to them anymore. Republican pollster Strategic Vision has a better record than Zogby. For one thing Zogby almost always tremendously underpolls Democrats, in 2006 he had Herb Kohl ahead by only single digits at one time, against an unknown candidate. He overstated Asa Hutchinson's support in Arkansas, keeping a toss up well past all other pollsters and still had him performing some four points stronger than he actually did. He's consistently had one of the worst records of any pollster these last four cycles, down the board. I don't understand why anybody pays him to do polls anymore. Most emmbarassingly, in 2000 he predicted Hillary Clinton would narrowly lose to Rick Lazio based on his late-election polling. She went on to win 55-43, and its very difficult to fuck up a race that badly.

That being said Lampson has run a lackluster campaign from the beginning and been plagued with health problems. I think he is behind by single-digits. People need to recognize that he is no Chet Edwards, or Jim Matheson. He's not fit to hold this kind of district. It's more Republican than the one he lost to far-right extremist Ted Poe in 2004, and Poe hadn't run an actual campaign in twelve years and was just some County Judge from outer Harris. There was no excuse that year for Lampson's ten point loss. No he expects to hold the same kind of district with the same kind of campaign? Nah uh. I knew this seat was gone the moment Shelly Sekula-Gibbs got 46% of the vote as a write in candidate against him. As a write in candidate, despite DeLay's scandals, despite being massively outspent, and frankly, Lampson's lackluster pace this year, poor fundraising, and late start to the campaign season have not given me any reason to think otherwise. Not to mention Olson has all the early campaigning and mo from his big primary win over Sekula-Gibbs.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 21:03:34 PM CDT

I didn't know about that 2000 poll.

Now I really think he's crap.

Also, Nate on 538.com mention that he uses the exit polls for his party ID which is probably why he's under polling Democrats.

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by: wmlawman @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 21:24:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And he was the only pollster to have the NM-Sen within the MOE.

What an idiot. I don't know where he gets the money to keep going but his polls are the worst kind of garbage in politics. Misleading and downright imaginary.

I'm sad to see TX-22 go but I was being a unrealistic about our chances there. I'm putting our losses right now at 3 (PA-11, TX-22, FL-16). Kanjorski may have a shot but it's not looking good for these three Dems. Not irreplaceable losses. TX-22 and FL-16 where flukes to begin with.

PA-11 is a district we can win again, especially with a candidate who actually knows how to run a campaign. If we lose PA-11, the next day (Nov. 5th)  we should start recruiting someone for 2010. There is absolutely no excuse for Republicans to hold a D+5.

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by: nrimmer @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 21:42:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not a nobody

I don't think it's at all fair to suggest that Lampson lost in '04 to a nobody.

Ted Poe had been a prosecutor during eight years when crime was a major issue. And Poe actually had considerable flair for self-promotion from the bench, according to Wikipedia:

Poe was appointed a felony court judge in 1981 [then] was one of the first Republican judges elected in Harris County since Reconstruction. In this position, he gained national prominence for his unusual criminal sentences that included ordering thieves to carry signs in front of stores from which they stole; required men who abused their wives to publicly apologize on the steps of Houston's City Hall; commanded sex offenders to place warning signs on their home after serving jail time; and directed murderers to securely place a photo of their victims on the wall of their prison cells, creating a daily reminder of their crime. [emphasis added]

You say "no excuse" to lose big to a guy like that in Texas in 2004? I differ.

Wikipedia also says Lampson "trounced" Poe in the Beaumont area that had been his base before DeLay's redistricting.

Let's not slip into "blame the victim" with Lampson, the way many people blamed Ciro for his primary loss after being gerrymandered and "missing ballots" appeared in is opponent's home county after the election night count.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:32:10 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

but he got trounced even worse

in the the outer Harris suburbs, which is where his new district is situated, and he doesn't even have Beaumont to help bail him out. The point is he was unable to win those voters over last time, and he's proving inable to do it this time.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:16:30 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Lost where

So Lampson carried his own turf where the voters knew him, back in 2004, the high point of George W Bush, Tom DeLay, and Republicans in Texas, but he lost the highly Repub part added in the racist gerrymander, where his opponent was a law-and-order celebrity.

And that proves what? That makes him a lousy politician like Charlie Stenholm, Martin Frost, Chris Bell, Max Sandlin, and Jim Turner, all of whom lost in the same way?

In this race we have one or two bad polls, an internal poll that looks good, and post-hurricane confusion and distraction in large parts of the district. We'll see come Nov. 4 if Lampson is the lousy candidate you seem to think he is.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 19:15:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Charles Stenholm I respect

for getting 42% against a fellow incumbent in a district that gave Bush 78% of the vote. Beaumont has always leaned Democratic, that's why it was always in Lampson's district. Max Sandlin, he got killed, I mean his showing wasn't even respectable, he lost like 60-40 in a district that only gave Bush about 62% of the vote. Chris Bell lost a primary, and Jim Turner didn't even run for reelection. Martin Frost, running against Pete Sessions, an incumbent, like him, in a district that only gave Bush 59% of the vote, and he lost by ten points. At least Sessions is in a district that continues to trend Democratic, like the rest of Dallas county, Kerry gained an average of four points there, despite losing four points of ground to Gore statewide wide.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 20:57:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No Excuse???

"There was no excuse that year for Lampson's ten point loss."

Gotta respectfully disagree here.  Lampson got redistricted.  It was a big Republican year overall, especially in Texas.  Just like all of the other moderate Texas Democrats who got redistricted, with the exception of Chet Edwards who barely hung on, he lost.  Lots of good politician went down, including one from my area I have a lot of respect for, Martin Frost.

Also, Zogby is a crap pollster.

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by: sicembears @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 14:32:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Martin Frost shouldn't have lost either

most of these guys just couldn't figure out how to run and win a campaign in difficult territory because they'd never really had to before.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 16:38:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Used to respect your comments

But you are really going off the deep end here.

Martin Frost was one of only 81 House Democrats who voted against authorizing the use of military force in Iraq. He then ran a hard campaign in a red district in a red city in a red county and he damned near pulled it off. Please do not slander any more good Democrats like Frost and Lampson.

The Anglo Dems who lost in DeLay's purge had all managed to get elected in years when Texas was becoming increasingly Repub, and then get re-elected. I don't know anyone who writes about Texas politics, or who lives there, who thinks these Democrats lost because they "couldn't figure out how to win" in '04, as you say. A popular favorite son seeking re-election an President and a ruthless gerrymander turned their districts to PVI of R+10 or worse, and they lost, honorably.

Get real and give them respect.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 19:26:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

close race

a ten term incumbent lost by ten points. He only barely outperformed Kerry, maybe only by six points.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 20:39:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, shit

It's really not gonna be bloodless for the D's this year, is it?

Oh, well... at least it's just two of the three high profile scandal seats from '06 (FL-16 and TX-22) that look doomed... neither Mahoney nor Lampson really won those seats on their own merits.  (As was mentioned in the comments, Sekula-Gibbs did disconcertingly well as a write-in candidate... as did Joe Negron in Florida).  At least Zack Space and Chris Carney more or less earned their seats by waging actual campaigs.

I just hope Paul Kanjorski pulls it out.  PA-11 is the only Dem district on the chopping block this year that we really, REALLY don't deserve to lose.  (Not because Kanjorski's a tremendous candidate, but because the economic straits in Northeast PA are so dire this year that it's unsconscionable to me that a repugnant demagogue like Lou Barletta is even viable).

And I still take issue with LA-06 being a classified as a tossup at this point... haven't we seen at least two polls showing Cazayoux with a comfortable edge?

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by: JFM110 @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 21:22:44 PM CDT

My Question About Cazayoux....

....is does he need 50% to avoid a runoff?  So far I haven't heard that option discussed.  I just don't understand Louisiana politics.

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by: Mark @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 22:09:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not anymore

He just needs a plurality. If he comes in first, he wins.

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by: andgarden @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 22:32:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Why Is This LA Race Different?

....than previous multi-candidate elections that require a runoff if no candidate gets a majority.

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by: Mark @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 23:22:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

They changed the law.

The law is now that Federal races do not require the multi-candidate elections that require a runoff, whereas state races still do.  So there are now proper party primaries and a regular election on election day.

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by: wmlawman @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 23:29:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Partisan primaries were reinstituted for Partisan races

as of this year. There is no "general runoff," however. That's the reason State Rep. Michael Jackson is a problem at all.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 23:31:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I mean FEDERAL races

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by: andgarden @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 23:31:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't buy the TX-22 poll...

The district is changing really fast and it's that REpublican. Lampson may lose but I'm betting on him eking oout a very narrow win, partly because Obama's margin among minority professionals who live in Sugarland and Missouri city.  

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by: Shinigami @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 21:34:32 PM CDT

SUSA has a few new polls up

KS-03
Dennis Moore (D) 53%
Nick Jordan (R) 42%

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

OH-15
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 47%
Steve Stivers (R) 41%

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

KS-03 isn't surprising that it's moderately close.  Moore did draw a good GOP challenger.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 22:13:07 PM CDT

I'd like to see a R2K poll on TX-22

I think we know as little about TX-22 now as we did before the Zogby poll. I would like to see a real poll. Too bad if it's close and people start giving up on the merits of this poll.  

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by: Ectoras @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 04:44:14 AM CDT