Democrats have a huge

early voting advantage in the state.

Up 56-28 in Clark and 52-32 in Washoe.

Note that does not count the absentee voting which is favoring Republicans, though it is much in number of people who are participating.  

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by: sulthernao @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 19:01:02 PM CDT

And Heller only won

by 13,000 votes in 2006. There's been a Dem increase of 25,000. Looking at the Washoe early voting, he must be sweating.  

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by: sulthernao @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 19:07:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

True...

But even with absentee ballots included in a complete early voting total, I believe Democrats still have a near 2-1 advantage. Even Jon Ralston of The LV Sun observed that this kind of advantage is very difficult for the GOP to overcome, to say the least. Now yes, we shouldn't count Nevada as a "given" yet. Rather, I think Larry Sabato has it right when he observed last week that Nevada is a "Lean Democratic" state where our continued hard work can seal the deal for Obama & Titus. :-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

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by: atdleft @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 21:46:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sorry huge typo

Somehow I over looked the word "small"! Yeah, absentee ballots DO NOT make a large portion of the early vote.

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by: sulthernao @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 21:51:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Porter's done

there is no way this can be called a tossup anymore. A shift of 37k in partisan ID, a stronger candidate, a strong field effort from the top of the ticket. Titus is going to win.

Hopefully Derby gives Heller a run for his money too. I'd love to see her pull off a upset.

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by: Populista @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 19:35:48 PM CDT

O/T: Shocker in IA-04

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Very good results for Becky Greenwald. Could this be another upset? I sure hope so. It also shows Obama behind McCain by four. Bush won this district by three and won Iowa. Most polls show Obama winning by 10 so if you correct the poll to show that Greenwald would have a nice lead.

I'd love to see another poll.

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by: Populista @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 20:07:40 PM CDT

Starting to remind me of IA-02

This race seems to be flying under the radar just like IA-02 did in 2006.  Hopefully the DCCC makes a real commitment here in the last week.  It's a cheap market, even $100K would do wonders.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 20:16:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That would be nice

Latham has a lot more money then Greenwald. A moneynuke in the final days could push her over the top.

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by: Populista @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 21:09:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I thought TX-10 was a bigger surprise

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Doherty is only down 46-42 to McCaul.  And Obama is only running 7 points behind McCain in a district that Bush carried by 24 and 34 points the past two elections.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 20:23:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That was a pretty good result too

I find it harder to believe that we will win that one beacuse  I think that poll overestimates Obama's support by about 7 percentage points while the Iowa poll underestimates his support.  

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by: Populista @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 21:08:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

O/T Again: NRSC is worried about Georgia

Another ad up. It seems as if they are doing more then the DSCC. Come on Chuck!

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by: Populista @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 21:07:31 PM CDT

I like the sound...

Of Congresswoman Dina Titus! Oh yes, and I like the look of Nevada delivering its five electoral votes to Barack Obama! Yep, Nevada's showing much more of a Democratic lean this year! I don't know how anyone can still call NV-Pres or NV-03 "toss-ups" now! ;-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

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by: atdleft @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 21:39:03 PM CDT

Buyer's Remorse

There is probably a lot of buyer's remorse among Nevada voters in electing what turned out to be a very ethically challenged, unpopular Jim Gibbons as Governor over Dina Titus in 2006.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 22:12:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yep, yep, yep...

As horribly unpopular as both Gray Davis AND Ahhnuld Schwarzenegger have been at times here in Kolyfoynya, neither fell to the depths that Jim Gibbons has in Nevada. In many ways, Gibbons' scandaliciousness has been a BIG hidden blessing to Democrats. Thanks to his epic corruption, Dina Titus may be the one to FINALLY retire Jon Porter, Obama may win here nicely, and Democrats may end up with majorities in both houses of the Legislature.

Talk about poetic justice! :-D

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

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by: atdleft @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 22:38:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Buyer's Remorse is something I'd love to see in IN-04

if Nels Ackerson can upset Buyer from a safe-R position!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 23:11:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Why is Obama not doing better in NV?

Watching polls religiously these past few months, I've been surprised Obama is not doing better in NV.  It was close in 2004, polls show him doing much better than Kerry among Hispanics, foreclosures everywere, and NV has had huge gains in Democrats registered, presumably many Hispanics.  Everything seems to be pointing to Obama doing much better than Kerry here.  Are the polls missing new Obama voters?  Is McCain running particularly strong as a regional candidate?  Of all the states, NV has made the least sense to me in terms of where it's polling vis-a-vis where it feels like it should be polling.

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by: sicembears @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 21:42:51 PM CDT

Yes, they are...

That is, I believe some of the polls here have excluded too many of the new Obama voters. After all, how in the world did a 13% Obama lead among registered voters in the CNN poll get whittled down to 5%? They may have screened out too many Obama voters.

In the end though, if I had to choose between the Las Vegas Review-Journal poll and the Reno Gazette-Journal poll on which one will prove to be closer to the actual Nov. 4 returns, I'd say the RGJ (Obama +7). Why? Their internals made the most sense on who's supporting whom, what voters think on the economy, and what they're most concerned about now.

So don't worry too much about the polls here. Just keep monitoring the early voting... And perhaps make some calls to turn out the vote for Obama & Titus/Derby! :-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

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by: atdleft @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 22:28:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

None of the polls in NV

are giving proper disclosure (ie the number of dems and reps they are including). So I really can't tell you.  

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by: sulthernao @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 22:28:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama's doing well

Not a single poll in the month of October has shown a McCain lead.  The closest poll has been a tie, with the rest of the polls ranging from +2 to +7 in Obama's favor.

I'm not sure what the polling internals have been like, but there are 1.2 million voters in NV and the Dems have an 8.3% statewide registration advantage.

The polling trends, combined with the statewide partisan advantage, makes the state favorable for Obama.  The early voting has been strong and has outpaced that of 2004.  Most people have Nevada as either a tossup or lean Dem, but I personally would be very surprised if Obama lost the state.

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by: unertl @ Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 00:45:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]