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House GOP's "Death List" Leaks

by: James L.

Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 5:10 PM EDT

The U.S. News & World Report:

The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a "death list." The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. "Rating 1" finds 10 Republicans "likely gone." Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8. Under "Rating 2," nine Republican seats are listed as "leaning Democratic." Under "Rating 3," some 22 GOP seats are listed as "true toss-up." The fourth rating, "lean Republican," finds 15 seats in the category that comes with this warning: "If there's a wave, some could be in trouble." The last "likely Republican" rating finds another 11. Only three Democratic districts are seen as "hopeful" GOP pickups. They are Florida 16, Pennsylvania 11, and Texas 22. Another 10 Democratic seats are listed as "possible" pickups.

Republicans facing the music? Or just a sly way of gaming expectations? In any event, I'd buy the full list for a dollar!

Here's one House member that Republicans should add to their deathwatch, even though he will be re-elected: NRCC Chair Tom Cole.

(Hat-tip: Andy Dufresne)

UPDATE: "The Fix" says that the NRCC is pulling out of CO-04, FL-24, and MN-06. Maybe that's true, but the NRCC did dump $375K against Democrat Betsy Markey in Colorado yesterday.

LATER UPDATE: The Politico says that the NRCC plans to pull out after their current $375K buy expires in Colorado's 4th CD.

James L. :: House GOP's "Death List" Leaks

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House GOP's "Death List" Leaks | 53 comments

Bye Bye Mr. Feeney

Don't let the door his ya on the way out. Must stink losing a district that YOU drew for yourself.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:14:12 PM CDT

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Understatement

A key Democratic official refused to provide his own list but said, "I'd rather be us than them."

BTW I wonder if the guy had a chance to include Bachmann on his death list before leaking it?
(No less than Cook has moved that one to toss up)

by: homerun @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:25:59 PM CDT

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Nick Lampson does not deserve this

Nick Lampson does not deserve to have his name bracketed with the alleged adulterer in Fl or the sleepy bumbler in PA. He's in a tough district, but it's a great year. And Lampson has done nothing wrong to earn defeat. Even when the hurricane came last month through he gave good constituent services.

Meanwhile his opponent is a protege of Phil Gramm, the sometimes chief economic advisor to McSame, an early architect of deregulating the financial industry, and candidate richly deserving repudiation.

Anyway, I'm sure we'd all love to see the others on that list. Without the perzact details, you should compare the Safe, Likely, Lean, and Toss-up counts on your SSP rankings with the Repubs little list. Are they even more pessimistic about their chances than you?

by: WoodyNYC @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:29:45 PM CDT

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I don't buy TX-22

I think Lampson is fine. The only way the DCCC would cut him off would be a double-digit deficit or a good sized lead. I have serious trouble believing he can be THAT far behind.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:33:48 PM CDT

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Demographics have changed. Many more Dems.

I think new suburbs like Sugarland & Pearland will decide this race.

The GOP is seriously underestimating new minority-growth. There are a ton more Asians (Pacific & South Asian), Hispanics, and African Americans in TX-22 than their way a few years ago.

My entire, middle-class suburb did not exist in 2000. It is now the fastest growing city in all of the Greater Houston area. And you know what else? It's smack in the middle of TX-22.

Besides, Lampson has been pushing all the right buttons for the past few months. People generally like him around these parts.

by: seven macaw @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:15:44 PM CDT

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Could this have been leaked on purpose ?

To rev up the base to turnout?

Obama supposedly has a 'leak' of a poll showing PA within a point or two. Could he be doing likewise?

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:31:03 PM CDT

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I don't think so

I don't see this on the radar of most people. Obama is one thing, Congressional elections are another in the minds of most Americans. I also don't see the media really playing this up with the presidential election and possibility of 60 seats.

by: mahimahi1414 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:39:21 PM CDT

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Possible

But from what I understand the PA poll was just a guy pulling numbers from you know where to rally the troops rather than anything from the campaign.

by: conspiracy @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:39:36 PM CDT

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There is no leak of an Obama poll.

You must have heard that on Free Republic or Larry Johnson's site.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:44:16 PM CDT

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Even if there were such a poll (which there might be but that's unlikely)

The Obama campaign would not have "leaked" it. Heck, the Obama campaign has been probably the single most disciplined campaign I've ever seen.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:46:15 PM CDT

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Lets hope

Lets all hope his administration is as efficient and disciplined as his campaign has been.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:48:36 PM CDT

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Hear, hear.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 17:21:07 PM CDT

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It came from Poltical Wire, which was quoting "The Hill"

An internal poll from Sen. Barack Obama's campaign in Pennsylvania has him just two points ahead of Sen. John McCain, according to The Hill.

"WILK radio host Steve Corbett said Tuesday he obtained an Obama campaign e-mail about the internal poll showing a tight race." The Obama campaign "wouldn't confirm the internal poll numbers, but said that the e-mail was sent without permission."

Update: Apparently this poll was reported a week ago, though it's relevance is more interesting today considering the McCain campaign's recent actions.

My question was di dteh Obama campaign PURPOSELY 'leak' a phony poll to deflate overconfidence.

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 17:43:41 PM CDT

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They think they are holding at least 44 senators?

That seems optimistic. Meanwhile, another poll shows Hagan up in NC. Also, Obama over McCain but Perdue and McCrory exactly tied.

http://www.wsoctv.com/politics...

by: conspiracy @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:43:28 PM CDT

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Wasn't Tom Cole allegedly a top-notch strategist?

I could have sworn some dems were nervous when he was announced as the NRCC head for this cycle because he was such an "election genius." If this guy is the best they've got to run a committee I feel good about our chances for the forseeable future.

Tom Cole makes Liddy Dole look like an election guru.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:45:29 PM CDT

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He can't get all the blame

The Republican brand has gone to shit during Bush's second term. I think no matter what they would have had big losses.

by: mahimahi1414 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:48:05 PM CDT

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tom cole death watch

now!!!

being normal is for the mediocre.

by: doug_tuttle @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:49:41 PM CDT

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I WANT TO SEE THIS LIST.

NOW.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:45:29 PM CDT

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The biggest oddity in that list...

Is Michigan-07. While I agree Walberg's career as a congressman is all but over, why would the NRCC be dropping so much money there? Are they holding on to blind hope? Is this intended to be misleading? Or what is going on here?

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:48:12 PM CDT

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Same here

I've heard MI-09 was given up for dead but not MI-07.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:49:32 PM CDT

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Agreed.

I also have a hard time believing they're giving up on Porter.

This could be worse for them than any of us are anticipating. We could push 30 seats maybe.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:51:43 PM CDT

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Deathwatch for December

Tom Cole
John Boehner
Roy Blunt

by: RandySF @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:57:52 PM CDT

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The question is...

...will there be any Republicans left in the House to lead?

by: conspiracy @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 17:11:36 PM CDT

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Eric Cantor

Might as well start calling him Minority Leader.

by: texas dem @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 17:29:53 PM CDT

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Also

Adam Putman is a rising star.

by: Populista @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:20:22 PM CDT

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Never understood that

He's a horrible speaker and looks like Howdy Doody.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:22:43 PM CDT

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And:

Putnam looks like Opie (aka Ron Howard) from The Andy Griffith Show.

by: jpsrosa @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 19:31:21 PM CDT

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Hey now

Do not disparage the great Ron Howard. Please limit your comparisons of Mr. Putnam to ugly puppets.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 19:39:12 PM CDT

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Hey:

Chad, sorry, my sincere apologies. Won't happen again. I happen to be a Happy Days fan and very much respect Mr. Howard's movies as well, especially the great Apollo 13.

by: jpsrosa @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 20:28:11 PM CDT

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Fun video

Fun video for Andy Griffith and Happy Days fans.

http://www.funnyordie.com/vide...

by: sicembears @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 16:28:52 PM CDT

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I am worried about him.

He's going to run state wide sooner or later, and I don't think he have an answer for him.

by: wmlawman @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:30:50 PM CDT

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don't forget

ensign. or poland for that matter! never forget poland!

being normal is for the mediocre.

by: doug_tuttle @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:24:15 PM CDT

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Shadegg might run again...

..oh wait. He won't be around. :)

by: Taget @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:47:09 PM CDT

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LOL! I love the Tom Cole connection

The Tom Cole deathwatch threads are probably something to remember for a lifetime ;) And I really hope to see the new deathwatch thread on November 5th.

by: KainIIIC @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 17:11:53 PM CDT

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NRCC abandons Bachmann

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Less than a week after controversial comments about investigating the patriotism of members of Congress, the National Republican Congressional Committee has pulled out of Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann's district, a well-placed GOP source tells Scorecard.
Bachmann earned widespread scorn for her remarks, made on MSNBC's "Hardball" last week. In the following four days, her Democratic opponent, former state Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg, had raised over $1 million and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had reserved an additional $1 million in advertising time. Both the campaign and the DCCC are already running new ads.
The NRCC had reserved time on behalf of Bachmann in early October, but the money had yet to flow to her district. She was not among the beneficiaries of a rush of new independent expenditures the committee made in the past two days.

by: MinnesotaMike @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 17:37:53 PM CDT

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Looks like their internals tanked ala Mahoney.

I simply do not believe in a year like this that the NRCC would abandon one of its staunchest conservatives if they did not believe the race was winnable.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 17:54:18 PM CDT

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believed rather than not believed

I need to get in the habit of using the preview button.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 17:56:29 PM CDT

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My guess

They're upset with Bachmann but probably think she could handle it on her own

by: unertl @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:24:47 PM CDT

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Cool.

Now can the DCCC PLEASE stop spending money on Anne Kirkpatrick in AZ-01?! Other challengers need (and deserve) that money more than her.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

by: cilerder86 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:08:45 PM CDT

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Ditto

Gerry Connolly in VA-11. Just stop spending, Gerry's got it in the can.

by: Ron @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:15:43 PM CDT

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And seriously cut funding to AK-AL

Young has little money on hand and Berkowitz doesn't need anywhere close to the crazy amounts the DCCC is dumping into the cheap Alaskan market.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:17:51 PM CDT

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The DCCC is looking sort of like

D-trip is acting like the McCain campaign, sad to say, running around throwing money here and there we can only ask, WTF? McCain advertising (and appearing) in Iowa? He doesn't have a chance in hell.

But the DCCC is spending huge money in AZ-01, VA-11, and AL-AL and we can only ask, WTF? Maybe they have so much money but nobody whose job it is to say "No" or even ask "Why?" Hey, I don't even understand why they spend in TX-23 where my man Ciro Rodriguez is NOT in any trouble.

They could shift that money into a dozen long-shot races like IA-05, GA-01, NC-05 and NC-10 and surprise themselves with half a dozen unexpected wins when the results are in come Nov. 5

by: WoodyNYC @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 20:51:41 PM CDT

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Maybe

the desired effect is downticket for most of those seats. These are Red States and it substitutes for Obama advertising in desirable regions where we want more passive people motivated to turn out and vote against the Republicans and have effect downticket. We do have shots at majority in the Texas state House, Arizona state House, and Alaska state House that need . Maybe (just maybe) the Arizona state Senate too.

by: Baystater @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:04:20 PM CDT

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Could be

But if that is the intent they'd be better off transferring the money to state committees who can directly spend the money for our local candidates.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:11:36 PM CDT

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Most of the five you listed

are way too conservative for us too win. They all have a PVI of at least R+9.

by: BillNolan @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:26:48 PM CDT

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MS-01, DUDE

MS-01: PVI R+10. Represented by Travis Childers (D). Rated likely D.

There are many more examples, but I need not mention them.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:14:33 PM CDT

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Yeah but

That one WAS an open seat -- much easier to take than knocking off an incumbent.

by: James L. @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:20:35 AM CDT

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This year is

If this is a map-changing, realigning, Democratic wave year -- and surely it is, can't you see it forming? -- then Repub PVIs don't mean squat. Obsolete. Not applicable. Use other access.

Do you really think that North Carolina is PVI of R +9 this year? This year? This is not your father's NC from 2004. If Obama is going to carry the state big, and he is, then he's going to carry most of the Congressional districts, too. If people want Change, they want a change in the Congress, too.

Back in the summer I posed my forecast that the Democrats were going to take about a dozen Senate seats. At the time the consensus here was more like 4 or 5, and for the optimistic 6 or 7. But now we have about a dozen Senate races in the oven, and my mouth is watering for a delicious feast on Nov. 4.

When I posted that forecast, some kid came on here yelling that I was crazy, and that it was crazy to suggest that Rick Noriega was more likely to win in Texas than Tom Allen in Maine. Now polls show Noriega behind by only 7 or 8 points and Tom Allen is ... about where he was back in July. My sanity seems to be improving. (Gee, where is that kid now? Maybe he's posting under a different handle? It's OK, all is forgiven. If not forgotten.)

Meanwhile I've said we'll take 40 or 50 House seats, while others were looking for net 15 on a good day. I wasn't as sure about the House. I was just giving a big number, more like previous wave year elections, not working a list of possibles from bottom up. Now I'm fully confident of 30+, and still think we could get 50. Even the DCCC has about 70 names on its wish-and-watch lists. Well, to get up to 40 or 50 we'll have to win more than one seat in NC. We will. And I'm not giving up on GA-01 or IA-05 or a dozen other no-money, long-shot races, not at all.

by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 09:47:21 AM CDT

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It would be awesome to have both ME-Sen and TX-Sen, but since we have to choose

Go for TX-Sen. Please, DSCC, forget ME-Sen and go for TX-Sen.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 13:58:21 PM CDT

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Really?

With Noriega down 15 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, it's hard to see them pony up the spare change Noriega needs here.

by: James L. @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 17:14:24 PM CDT

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Also, GA-01 is just one

CA-46 hasn't yet gotten onto the DCCC's big board, and NC-05 is a rising star of a pickup opportunity!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 13:59:19 PM CDT

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AK-AL could be tough

Young trailed for much of the 1992 campaign against John Devens, but ended up winning with a 47% plurality.

by: BillNolan @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:25:51 PM CDT

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