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AK-Sen, AK-AL: Senate's Close; House Not So Much

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 4:33 PM EDT


Ivan Moore for Anchorage Press (10/17-19, likely voters, 10/3-6 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 46 (49)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 45 (45)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51 (51)
Don Young (R-inc): 43 (42)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

After the initial shock of Ted Stevens' indictment wore off (giving Mark Begich a huge boost), it seems like voters have been more and more willing to give Stevens some of the benefit of the doubt until a verdict is handed down, as the numbers in this race have drawn back to a tossup. With the case now in the hands of the jurors, it looks like we're likely to have a verdict (or a mistrial) before Election Day, so whatever happens in the jury box may well decide the election.

Things look a little more settled in the House race, where Ethan Berkowitz continues to lead Don Young by high double single-digits. One note for caution, though, while Berkowitz's favorables are as high as they've ever been in an Ivan Moore poll, the same is true of Young: Young's positive/negative rating is 44-47, also his best showing in an Ivan Moore poll... but Young's position in the head-to-head poll hasn't improved much. Maybe the good folks of Alaska are starting to fondly recall why they love their own little grizzled 1890s prospector, consarn it... but still plan to turn the page on him.

Perhaps most noteworthy in this poll is the presidential numbers, showing Obama climbing much closer to McCain at 53-42 (reverting closer to the pre-Palin numbers, down from as much as a 54-35 McCain lead during the GOP convention). Perhaps the novelty effect of an Alaskan on the ticket is starting to wear off.

Crisitunity :: AK-Sen, AK-AL: Senate's Close; House Not So Much
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For a while I thought Stevens might get off
But I do not think his tesitmony did him any favors.

Agreed
I'd be shocked if he didn't get convicted on SOMETHING, considering the indictment is seven counts.  And a conviction on any count is probably the kiss of death for Stevens.

[ Parent ]
Stevens' testimony was indeed bizarre
and the prosecution's case, which almost fell apart at one point, finished up strong.

Here are two excerpts from Stevens' testimony:

It (the $2,695 massage chair) was not a gift, Stevens said. It belongs to Persons. It's just been in his house in Washington for seven years.

"I told him I would not accept is as a gift," Stevens said. "We have lots of things in our house that do not belong with us."

"Bill Allen stole our furniture and put his in our chalet," Stevens said.

"Why didn't you call the police?" Morris asked.

"It never crossed my mind to call the police at that time," Stevens said. "I might now."

http://www.adn.com/news/alaska...

Here are a couple of excerpts from Morris' closing argument for the prosecution:

"I ask you to do something that very few people have done," Morris said, recalling Stevens' sometimes snarling responses to her cross examination. "Stand up to him. Behind all that growling, and all those snappy comebacks and that righteous indignation, he's just a man. He should stand up and take responsibility like everyone who comes into the courtroom. Make him responsible."

Stevens was eloquent on the stand when he spoke of his own accomplishments, Morris said. But when he was asked about the renovations, she said, "he started stuttering and sputtering. Because he can't answer that because what he was telling you is nonsense."

Through most of her presentation, Stevens sat with his eyes closed, his face gray. How could Stevens not be able to stop Allen from giving him things, she said.

"What is consistent is that everyone is to blame but the defendant," she said. It was Bill Allen's fault. It was his wife's fault. It was his secretary's fault. It was the fault of Veco employees.

"This is a lawyer. This is a man who knows details. And it's everyone's fault but his," she said.

http://www.adn.com/politics/st...


[ Parent ]
You mean Berkowitz is leading
by high SINGLE digits.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

Heh
The only race I can think of that actually is within the high double digits is the Senate race in Arkansas.

[ Parent ]
Ya, even the MT-Sen race
Even crazy Bob Kelleher was only down by around 30 points to Baucus in MT.  And Kelleher is basically a commie who somehow got the R nomination.

[ Parent ]
Low Triple Digits?
Isn't that one in the low triple digits?  I know no Republican filed.  Probably a Libertarian or something on the ballot though.

[ Parent ]
Just finished reading an article on The Hill.
Apparently 10 out of the 12 jurors are black.

Just sayin'. :)


A jury of his peers
They couldn't find any crazy old men from Alaska. There was one possibility, but it turns out Mike Gravel actually lives in Virginia.

[ Parent ]
Jury's having trouble
Roll Call

The jury in the criminal trial of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) ended its deliberations early Wednesday, telling the judge around 4 p.m. that consideration of the case was becoming "stressful" and they needed "a minute of clarity."

That doesn't sound good.  


Why is that?
For all we know they could have decided to convict him on 3 counts, aquit on 3 and are undecided on 1 count.  I just don't see him being found not guilty on all 7 counts.  

No reasonable person could buy his ridiculous explanation someone stealing his furniture and replacing it with someone else's furniture.


[ Parent ]
Agreed.
I refuse to believe he will be acquitted on seven charges. Even if he's only found guilty of one, aren't all seven felonies?

[ Parent ]
The only thing
The only thing that had worried me at all was that the jury might feel sorry for Stevens.  The guy's testimony same off sounding so senile and illogical people might think he has alzheimers and let him off the hook.  But they have to know he's still a U.S. Senator, so I doubt people will buy it.

[ Parent ]
How Are You Guys Going To React
If Stevens wins despite getting convicted on one count of whatever when the jury decides?

I'll tase someone. (eom)


[ Parent ]
He can join up with Dollar Bill Jefferson
And do a re-make of the movie The Odd Couple.

[ Parent ]
I got this one.
   I'm going to carry a picture of Ted Stevens in my wallet.  (Stay with me here).  Whenever a Republican accuses some urban area with a large Black/Hispanic/Non-White of being corrupt, but cannot provide examples of corruption beyond the existence of "shady people" and ACORN innuendo, I will show them a picture of Ted Stevens -  the man from a rural, white state who was reelected after he was convicted of a felony.  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

[ Parent ]
No concern
I don't think they let you out of jail to vote on the Senate floor.  He'll miss more votes than McCain has this year.

Would the Senate even seat him while his felony conviction is on appeal?  I would think he'd have to resign, therby allowing Palin to appoint herself to the Senate where she re-unites with her BFF, John McCain.  McCain, however, angry at losing in a landslide, blaming Palin for his loss, and becoming ever more erratic, stabs her in the neck with a ballpoint pen while yelling "take that, you g**k!"


[ Parent ]
I wish the focus was more on Begich's positives
as opposed to Steven's ethical problems.  Begich is a solid candidate that will be a major asset for the Democratic Caucus.

I personally would like to see (a) Stevens acquitted and (b) Begich beating Stevens.  I don't want the GOP to have any excuses on why Begich beat Stevens.  Of course, the right-wingers will blame the prosecuters for smearing Stevens, but again, they have to blame his loss on something.

Go BEGICH!


LOL, anyone seen the AIP's nominee for AK-SEN?
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ca...

Sounds like a colorful character.

His prior job description:

Retired Bush Pilot & Frequent Candidate



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