Another Close race; Ken-Sen

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

SurveyUSA's new independent poll of Kentucky's Senate race has Bruce Lunsford and Mitch McConnell all tied up at 48% apiece.

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by: MinnesotaMike @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 16:31:44 PM CDT

Good news for all Obama and Hagan

SUSA oversampled Rs and undersampled Ds. They have only a 5-point Dem advantage, when its 13 in reality. If they hold 80% of Democrats and win among independents, they win, period.  

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by: MichiganLiberal @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 16:32:16 PM CDT

The AA vote is wayyyyyyy off

20% in this poll.  It was 26% in 2004.  I'd expect it to be at least equal, if not much higher this year than 2004.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 16:42:56 PM CDT

No, that is correct

African Americans make up about 21-22 % of the state electorate.  They actually made up 18% of the vote in 2004.  NC keeps very specific numbers and you can go to the BOE and look them up.
Almost everyone in the state seems to think that if AA turnout is equal to white turnout we win this state.  (It was 5 points lower than white turnout in 04)

"Keep the Faith"

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by: blue south @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 16:49:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

OK, you are right

I was going off the cnn exit poll which must have been off.  Still, wouldn't you think 20% is an underestimation of the AA vote this year?

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 16:50:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Early Voting

FWIW according to this Daily Kos diary

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Through monday over 404,000 people had voted early in North Carolina and 32.81% of them were black. 61.19% were Dems.

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by: MinnesotaMike @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 16:59:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

According to SUSA...

Among the 14% of likely voters who have already voted:

Obama over McCain 59-36%
Hagen over Dole 56-37%
Perdue over McCrory 54-41%

Condiering 61% of early voters are Dems these numbers sound about right.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 17:09:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Any numbers from NC-05, NC-08, or NC-10?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 17:15:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not sure

Sometimes you can look county by county.

But as an indication, Gaston County, which is mostly in NC-09, but is one of the few counties with more Reps than Dems registered has had 3 to 2 Dem to Rep at early voting.

So I imagine the numbers are great in NC-08 and pretty darn good in NC-05.  Hard to guess for NC-10.

"Keep the Faith"

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by: blue south @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 17:55:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well

Perdue is underperforming Obama by 5%.  I'm assuming that these voters are maybe black voters (?) which would make sense and means that Perdue and Hagen need to pick it up with the white voters then.  

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by: Andrew @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:35:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

OT: Cook moves CO to Leans Dem

http://www.cookpolitical.com/

Long overdue move.  He has also upped his range of Dem Senate pickups to 7-9 seats.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 18:11:28 PM CDT

NC Ballot

I know I'm always a Debbie Downer on here, but I just want folks to remember the layout of our ballot here in NC.  The vote for President is before and separate from the straight-party vote, which covers all state and local partisan offices.

Example: http://www.buncombecounty.org/...

Studies have shown this hurts the presidential candidate and could be worth about 2-3% of their vote.  I hope thats not the case this year, but it's worth a mention.  Never before have I wanted President to be under straight-party in NC, but I do now!

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by: app state @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 22:07:47 PM CDT