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KY-Sen: New Poll Confirms Close Race

by: James L.

Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 2:04 AM EDT

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/15-16, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 42 (37)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 46 (50)
(MoE: ±4%)

That's some nice mo' for Lunsford in the past month, who has gained some more ground among Democrats and Independents since the previous R2K poll here. Post-bailout, McConnell's favorable rating has taken a bit of a hit -- he currently sits at 47-46, down from 51-43 in September.

Lunsford will need a strong finish in order to pull this off, but this race is looking a lot more doable than it did a couple of months ago.

James L. :: KY-Sen: New Poll Confirms Close Race

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KY-Sen: New Poll Confirms Close Race | 7 comments

Since we're doing polling

SUSA gives Franken a big bump--but still not ahead.

Bonus finding: Obama finally back in the lead in MN.

by: andgarden @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:13:43 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

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SUSA cannot poll younger voters correctly to save their life.

This instance is no different.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:39:46 AM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Well

the trend is an improvement.

But I think Mark Blumenthal wrote something last week about how the traditional pollsters who didn't look at cell phones could be missing this.

The missing cell phone voter didn't matter in 2004. I wonder if it will this year?

by: andgarden @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:43:12 AM CDT

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Inversion of the Kos/R2k

Total tossup, particularly because of Barkley. But you gotta hope Obama carries Franken over the top.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:19:21 AM CDT

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Significant undersampling of Democrats

According to registration figures from April (our advantage may have increased even more now), 57% of registered voters are Democrats... this poll only listed Democrats at 46%... Could this really be a tied race?

by: KainIIIC @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 10:51:41 AM CDT

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Party registration is a guess

Minnesota doesn't have party registration, so we don't know how many registered voters lean one way or another. The only indication is the increases have come more from Democratic leaning areas. Unfortunately, candidates for the Independence Party almost always pull more from people who would otherwise vote Democratic. Without Barkely, Franken would have this. We probably wouldn't have a Republican governor either. Democrats have to beat both in this state, which makes it amazing we have a shot to sweep the congressional delegation.

by: ericf @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 11:35:38 AM CDT

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Looks like KY-Sen and GA-Sen are coming along!

Once we get these under our belt, we should get to work on ME-Sen and OK-Sen next!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 14:52:29 PM CDT

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KY-Sen: New Poll Confirms Close Race | 7 comments