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NC-Sen: Hagan Leads by 4

by: James L.

Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 4:01 PM EDT

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/8-10 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 49 (42)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (48)
Other: 3
(MoE: ±4%)

R2K's September poll looked like an outlier at the time (especially considering the 55-38 McCain lead in the same poll), but this one looks about right.

Hagan posts a 55-35 favorable rating, while Dole is stuck at 50-43 -- not as terrible as other incumbents we've seen this year, but she's still being outpaced by Hagan.

In the gubernatorial race, Markos reports a 48-43 lead for Pat McCrory, but the crosstabs seem wildly mixed up -- it looks like the top lines were accidentally swapped, meaning that Democrat Bev Perdue would have the 48-43 lead.

Bonus finding: Obama noses McCain by 46-44 in the same poll.

UPDATE: PPP's Tom Jensen points out some big issues with the poll's sample.

LATE UPDATE: R2K pollster Del Ali writes SSP to inform us that the top lines were indeed switched up by accident, meaning that Perdue has a five-point lead in this poll.

James L. :: NC-Sen: Hagan Leads by 4

Tags: NC-Sen, Polls, NC-Gov, (All Tags)

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NC-Sen: Hagan Leads by 4 | 10 comments

Bad Polls

1 month they have a wild outlier and the next month they report results that are just wrong. And everywhere else their numbers are always 1-3 points better for Democrats.

Why does Markos use this company again?

"Keep the Faith"

by: blue south @ Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 17:25:33 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Cheaper than Survey USA?

I don't think they are that bad actually.

by: conspiracy @ Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 17:46:41 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Probably much cheaper than SUSA

They do have a decent track record, even if they aren't a top-tier pollster. Then again the top-tier pollsters like M-D and SUSA have put out countless bizarre polls this election.

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 18:02:31 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Well keep in mind

that Zogby and Rasmussen make you pay to see the special sauce, and apparently even then don't reveal all.

The more I learn about polling, the more it all seems to suck. But we don't have anything better until election day. . .

by: andgarden @ Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 18:08:32 PM CDT

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The mixup is pretty funny

Markos seems to switch the names in the topline about once every three polls

by: unertl @ Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 20:26:47 PM CDT

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I'm still concerned

This set of NC polls seem to have oversampled blacks and undersampled whites. Blacks won't make up 24% of voters even if turnout is astronomical. They only make up 22% of the population and an even lower % of registered voters.

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 20:37:39 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Read the PPP article.

It seems that even though they oversampled blacks, the McCain/Obama margin for whites was way too McCain-friendly.

by: wmlawman @ Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 23:22:05 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Yeah

I'm not sure wth R200 is doing. Maybe they aren't properly getting the right region weights: getting more rural whites thus significantly lowering Obama's support. It's definitely some sort of methodological problem.

by: sulthernao @ Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 00:50:18 AM CDT

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Go Haganmania!

In case anyone's wondering, that's a Hulk Hogan reference.

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 22:44:09 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Seems like we got some wrestling fans on this board.

Heh, reminds me of when people said that Al Gore and Dubya should have been put into a steel cage to duke it out.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 16:48:19 PM CDT

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NC-Sen: Hagan Leads by 4 | 10 comments