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GA-Sen: Still Neck and Neck

by: James L.

Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 7:29 PM EDT

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/29-10/1 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 45 (44)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (45)
Allen Buckley (L): 5 (-)
Undecided: 3 (7)
(MoE: ±4%)

Hoo-boy. Poll after poll keeps telling us that this is an incredibly tight race. Martin currently is sitting at 26% of the white vote (and 86% of the African-American vote) -- and, as Kos writes, if he can nudge that up to 30%, he'll be in a good position.

As fitchfan wrote in the diaries, Martin out-raised Chambliss in the third quarter by $1.3 million to $1.1 million, but he ended September with only $93K left in the bank. If you haven't yet done so, please consider lending Jim Martin a hand over at SSP's Actblue page. Let's see if we can hit 100 donors for Jim soon.

James L. :: GA-Sen: Still Neck and Neck

Tags: GA-Sen, Polls, (All Tags)

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GA-Sen: Still Neck and Neck | 5 comments

RCP avg has Chambliss +2.6 but...

...all these polls were taken before the influx of DSCC cash. Martin should really hit the airwaves even harder and might nudge up a couple points in the coming few weeks from this alone. Combine that momentum with an unprecedented Democratic turnout and I'm feeling confident that Martin can edge out Chambliss.

by: unertl @ Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 19:05:42 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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The only reason I'm confident in the small gap is

Because in the past three months, Chambliss spent ~4 million dollars to Martin's 1.3 million spent. Now that the majority of Chambliss' warchest is gone, he's ripe for the picking. Blogs, DSCC, etc. can invest and put Martin over the edge.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 19:34:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

We're going to win this thing!

The poll had AA turnout at only 27 percent, which according to recent numbers in a pretty low estimate. If we can bump it up to 30 percent or more and turn that 86 percent support to the 90 plus that Obama is getting it will really turn this thing in Martin's favor.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

by: fitchfan28 @ Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 21:39:49 PM CDT

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Even looking at this poll

Virtually all of the undecideds are people who would be pre-disposed to support Martin. Also, Survey USA's most recent poll of this race showed Martin getting 31% of the white vote and if he got that, I think he wins.

My one big concern is Buckley. He's a frequent candidate and looking at where his support is coming from, it seems like his supporters would probably be more inclined to support Chambliss if Buckley weren't on the ballot. As election days draws closer, will we see those people coalesce around Chambliss instead of having the protest vote?

by: safi @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:09:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]