AZ-03, NE-02: Shadegg and Terry Under 50

by: James L.

Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 5:30 PM EDT

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/6-8, likely voters):

Bob Lord (D): 39
John Shadegg (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±5%)

The last poll we saw of this race, from Anzalone Liszt showed a dead heat. R2K didn't include the Libertarian candidate in its polling (an oversight), which Markos believes would have shaved off a point or two from Shadegg. In any case, Shadegg is under 50 and is currently weathering a series of big hits from both Lord and the DCCC (who have spent nearly $700K on this race so far). A recent Roll Call article takes note of some displeasure with Shadegg's campaign by DC GOP insiders, so you have to wonder what their own internal polling is telling them.

But this is even more remarkable -- check out the Presidential numbers in this district. McCain is only beating Obama by 50-39 here. Put that in perspective: This is an R+6.5 district that Bush carried by 58-41 in 2004. Despite having a homestate advantage, and Obama largely not contesting the state (at least, in terms of serious media buys), McCain is only hitting 50%. That's pretty stunning, and possibly an ominous sign for Republicans like Tim Bee and Dave Schweikert, who were counting on some McNap coattails to carry them over the line in the 8th and 5th Districts.

And now for Nebraska. Research 2000 (10/6-8, likely voters):

Jim Esch (D): 39
Lee Terry (R-inc): 49
(MoE: ±5%)

Nothing especially strong for Lee Terry there (especially when you consider that this is an R+9 district), but also one that doesn't seem to have budged much from Terry's 55-45 win over Esch in 2006. In Esch's favor, he's getting the kind of help that he lacked last time: Obama has opened his third field office in Omaha just recently, and the DCCC has reserved $435K worth of ad time against Terry (although no ads have been aired yet, to the best of my knowledge). It would be nice if we could check in with this race with a few more polls in a couple of weeks.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 53-40 in this district.