We're back!

Sorry folks -- it looks like we had some server problems for about an hour or so there. We seem to be back at full strength now, though.

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by: James L. @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 13:47:28 PM CDT

Great news

I think this is a winnable district. Perriello is running some great ads like these

Which I think are going to hurt Goode is a major way. It may be a culturally conservative district but it's also a district that's been very effected by the hard economic times and I think that's going to win out over cultural concerns.

One thing we know is that Perriello's ads are working. As his name rec goes up (meaning people have seen his ads) his numbers have shot up.

So donate to him so he can stay on the air and win this district.

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by: Populista @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 14:07:29 PM CDT

If Obamas wins big, anything is possible

I thought this race was a pipedream, but if Obama can maintain his current 10 pt+ margin in the Commonwealth, anything is possible, and incumbents like Goode, Thelma Drake, and even Frank Wolf might be in danger.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 14:18:42 PM CDT

Huge and rural

Charlottesville and Albemarle County are at the extreme northern edge of this district which spreads all the way to the NC border.  Only 21% of the district's voters are from these locales (Charlottesville is an incorporated city).  Some of those neighborhoods are undoubtedly Republican.  They reek of old money or money earned elsewhere and full scale pretension.  It's the type of place where no one will have claimed to have farted in at least 20 years.  Nuff said.

Take a bet.  The "city" with the most voters in this district is not cosmoploitan Charlottesvelle ,(25,969) but Danville (28,138) far to the south.  A place only slightly faniliar from a line from an old country song ("It's a mighty rough road from Lynchburg to Danville") called the Wreck of the Old 97.  Better known towns: Appamattox amd Martinsville, home of NASCAR races.

Goode's edge last time was 40,000 votes.  In fact, Albert Weed pushed him back a bit from a 27% victory margin in 2002 and 2004 to 20% in 2006.  IIRC, 270,000 votes were cast in 2004 abd 239,000 in 2006 not a huge difference (less than the normal drop.  

Closing in would be expected.  M aking a battle of it shows incredible weaknesses in the GOP base.

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by: David Kowalski @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 14:20:53 PM CDT

The Perriello Campaign is Strong Where you Mentioned

The Perriello campaign has eight (8!) offices throughout the district and have been in Martinsville and Danville all year. Martinsville has the highest unemployment in the state and was hurt by Goode's dealings with MZM. Perriello is very popular in Martinsville, where he launched his economic REVIVAL tour this summer.

Danville is another city that (while doing better than Martinsville) is hurting economically. It has a 40% African American population that has been targeted heavily by the Obama campaign, and the Perriello office is on the main street of the city.

You're absolutely right that no candidate can win based on Charlottesville and Albemarle alone...that's why Perriello has spent the majority of his time in Southside Virginia in places like Martinsville, Danville, South Boston and Gretna, building the grassroots support that is propelling him in the polls.  

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by: JohnCos @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 14:32:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

R2K has Shadegg up 9 over Lord

but didn't include Libertarian.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)

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by: Menhen @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 14:21:57 PM CDT

Ya, I was hoping for closer

Not sure who to believe really Anzalone is good pollster and has Lord by 1.  I guess the truth is somewhere in between.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 14:24:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]