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Independent Expenditure Roundup: 9/22-28

by: James L.

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 10:48 PM EDT

A summary of the independent expenditures for House races filed in the last seven days:

District	Incumbent	Group	Last Week	Total
AL-02	Open	DCCC	$97,985	$157,566
AL-05	Open	DCCC	$60,700	$206,187
AZ-01	Open	DCCC	$218,739	$506,171
AZ-03	Shadegg	DCCC	$114,824	$114,824
AZ-05	Mitchell	DCCC	$193,610	$504,301
AZ-08	Giffords	DCCC	$81,326	$116,163
CA-11	McNerney	DCCC	$20,277	$180,003
CO-04	Musgrave	DWAF	$40,000	$251,974
CT-04	Shays	DCCC	$153,590	$317,974
FL-16	Mahoney	DCCC	$100,070	$100,070
FL-24	Feeney	DCCC	$19,757	$19,757
IL-10	Kirk	DCCC	$84,520	$240,861
IL-11	Open	DCCC	$61,380	$610,857
IL-11	Open	EMILY	$21,884	$113,808
IN-09	Hill	DCCC	$39,771	$98,702
KY-02	Open	DCCC	$99,897	$99,897
LA-06	Cazayoux	OPHTHPAC	$49,163	$49,163
LA-06	Cazayoux	DCCC	$105,897	$122,449
MD-01	Open	DCCC	$155,295	$155,295
MI-07	Walberg	DCCC	$95,414	$168,068
MI-09	Knollenberg	DCCC	$66,823	$146,454
MN-03	Open	DCCC	$214,165	$363,728
MO-09	Open	DCCC	$28,435	$28,435
NC-08	Hayes	DCCC	$149,044	$420,289
NH-01	Shea-Porter	DCCC	$86,169	$631,048
NJ-03	Open	DCCC	$94,433	$281,917
NJ-07	Open	DCCC	$143,917	$558,414
NM-01	Open	DCCC	$167,022	$472,284
NM-02	Open	DCCC	$94,400	$94,400
NV-03	Porter	DCCC	$167,592	$167,592
NY-25	Open	DCCC	$64,139	$144,571
NY-26	Open	DCCC	$110,540	$110,540
OH-01	Chabot	DCCC	$137,100	$262,736
OH-15	Open	DCCC	$186,487	$579,280
OH-16	Open	DCCC	$192,067	$617,004
PA-03	English	DCCC	$91,666	$206,768
PA-03	English	NRCC	$26,399	$36,974
PA-10	Carney	DCCC	$130,704	$182,169
PA-11	Kanjorski	DCCC	$22,583	$304,086
TX-23	Rodriguez	DCCC	$24,891	$62,227
TX-23	Rodriguez	NARPAC	$220,446	$424,366
VA-11	Open	DCCC	$114,076	$289,374
WI-08	Kagen	DCCC	$64,461	$64,461
		Total Blue	$4,336,096	$10,497,066
		Total Red	$75,562	$86,137

Don't let that massive blue-red discrepancy lull you into complacency -- these are independent expenditures, but 501(c)(4) groups like Freedom's Crotch and the Club For Growth are in on the action, as well. The CFG posted a $250K expenditure against Dem Rep. Chris Carney, and the Crotch is going up on the air with $1.3 million worth of multi-week ad buys in support of slimeball Republicans in IL-10, NJ-07, NM-01, and NV-03.

For more details on these and other expenditures, check out SSP's Independent Expenditure Tracker.

James L. :: Independent Expenditure Roundup: 9/22-28

Tags: Independent Expenditure Roundups, Independent Expenditures, (All Tags)

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Independent Expenditure Roundup: 9/22-28 | 21 comments

I think we have to consider Ciro Rodriguez

to be in trouble at this point.

Why else would the DCCC and NARPAC be spending so much on him?

by: andgarden @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:17:06 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Weird... has there been any

indication that he's in trouble beyond this spending?

by: wmlawman @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:20:22 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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No polls

He has a wide money lead over Lyle Larson, his GOP opponent (not the NRCC's preferred choice here). Nothing really other than being a semi-frosh in a swing district.

by: James L. @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:22:08 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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All things considered

$63K on a few pieces of mail is not a heck of a lot. We're not talking about Kanjorski-like resources here.

NARPAC's money is serious dough, and I'm curious if their polling data is telling us something about this race that we don't know. It's also possible that they're trying to do a favor for a congressman who used to be more liberal in previous Congresses.

by: James L. @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:20:38 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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It's a marginal district that tilts Republican

IIRC, the average for the district in November 2006 was just over 51% R for statewide contests. It's up on the web somewhere.

by: andgarden @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:33:23 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Very doubtful

The DCCC really has not spent much on Rodriguez and his challenger isn't exactly top-tier. As for NARPAC, who knows how they decide to spend their money. Either way I think it would be a huge upset if Rodriguez lost.

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:20:59 PM CDT

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Ciro is the kind of Congressman

whom I would expect to be upset.

He doesn't have the reputation is the world's best campaigner, and he probably won't have Bill Clinton stumping for him this time.

by: andgarden @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:35:42 PM CDT

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Actually

Clinton will be in town next week for a Ciro fundraiser.

by: James L. @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:44:27 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Interesting

Though I think that's further evidence that Ciro is in trouble. . .

I'm going to make a prediction now that TX-23 will be close on election night. I would like to be wrong.

by: andgarden @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:47:17 PM CDT

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I dunno

Obama has a solid 50 state strategy and I assume Clinton's appearance has moire to do with whipping up support for Dems across the board in south Texas than it does specifically to help Ciro out.

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 23:39:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If I were an Obama donor,

and found out that he was spending money in South Texas right now, I'd be pretty upset.

50 state strategies sound good, buuut.

by: andgarden @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 23:48:37 PM CDT

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Well he's not

He's not spending money there, it's just Clinton making a stop to help south Texas dems. There are a lot of competitive races there at many levels this year and Clinton is popular in that area. No harm in that.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:58:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama has this race locked up

He can easily go around the country and stump for Democrats in key House races.

by: BillNolan @ Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 14:34:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

OPHTHPAC is getting on my damn nerves.

Their just being annoying without accomplishing a damn thing. Why even bother with this crap. Could someone in Congress please make their lives a living hell for the next few years? Just pass some eye doctor regulations or raise the taxes on those stupid alphabet posters. That'll teach 'em to spend money against Dems..........

by: nrimmer @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:40:22 PM CDT

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I agree.

Those bastards have got to pay.

by: James L. @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:43:07 PM CDT

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Meh. As long as they don't win any races,

they can waste all the money they want.

by: wmlawman @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:46:53 PM CDT

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For the record

I was joking. :)

They are bastards, though.

by: James L. @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:48:04 PM CDT

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I'm not.

The Governator says it best.

by: nrimmer @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 23:07:03 PM CDT

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Why Baron Hill???

This seems like a waste of money. In the past this would have been understandable...but Hill is extremely safe this cycle and as long as dems keep control of the Ind-House his district will only get stronger for him in the future. Mike Sodrel has been nearly invisible this cycle and has no Bush coattails and McCain does not have the same effect in Southeastern Indiana as Bushy does.

by: allstar2256 @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 23:24:24 PM CDT

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Hill is definately not "safe"

Yes, he's probably in better shape than he's been in in past cycles, but I'd hardly call him safe. His opponent did beat him once before and the last SUSA poll only had him up by something like points. I agree that he doesn't need a lot of DCCC support, but $100K sounds like a reasonable amount. Better safe than sorry.

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 23:37:58 PM CDT

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Very Exciting

Im very excited to see the DCCC put its money where its mouth is on some of these races. They have been doing a great job this cycle of supporting the right candidates, and doing so with great ads. (The DSCC has also been doing great independent ads).

But races like NC-08, PA-03, IL-10, its great to see us really taking advantage of some golden opportunities.

"Keep the Faith"

by: blue south @ Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 00:12:14 AM CDT

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Independent Expenditure Roundup: 9/22-28 | 21 comments