Premium Sponsor

Featured Sponsor

Our Sponsors

Ad Networks

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

WY-AL: Trauner, Lummis Tie

by: Crisitunity

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 3:54 PM EDT

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/22-24, likely voters, 5/20-21):

Gary Trauner (D): 42 (44)
Cynthia Lummis (R): 42 (41)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here's our first look in many months at the race for Wyoming's at large House seat, being vacated by the always-charming Barbara Cubin. The poll shows a tied game between Gary Trauner, who came very close to shocking Cubin in 2006, and former Secretary of State Cynthia Lummis. (The previous poll was taken long before Wyoming's GOP primary, where Lummis defeated Mark Gordon, who was considered to be the less-divisive pick.)

There are two possible schools of thought on the state of this race: first, this isn't that good, because Trauner has lost ground from last time even though now it's confirmed he's running against Lummis (who, personality-wise, seems to take after Cubin).

On the other hand, it may be good, since this follows in the wake of adding Sarah Palin to the ticket, who plays (or played?) uniquely well in the red states of the West and should have theoretically, via coattails, knocked Trauner out of contention. The same sample shows McCain leading Obama 57-36, still a mighty downdraft for Trauner to fight against, but an indication that Dems are running much better in the Equality State than in 2004 (where Kerry got dismantled 69-29).

Crisitunity :: WY-AL: Trauner, Lummis Tie

Tags: WY-AL, Polls, Gary Trauner, Cynthia Lummis, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

WY-AL: Trauner, Lummis Tie | 11 comments

Republicans undersampled?

I hate to throw some cold water on what is an amazing poll result, but I fear that this poll really undersamples Republicans. The poll's composition was:

24% D
48% R
28% I/U

This does not really mirror the statewide registration split, which is around 27-63-10. Furthermore, according to the CNN 2006 exit poll from Trauner's last race, it was 28-55-17.

I know Democratic registration has shown an uptick this year, but according to the Wyoming SoS's site, it is still over 60%. If this is true, this poll is probably not entirely accurate. Do people agree/disagree? Am I looking at the wrong numbers?

That being said, if it is right, it is obviously a superb finding. Gary is going to need to win at least a quarter of the GOP vote, and 70% of unaffiliated (he got 71% in 2006), to squeeze out a win, so he may be on the right track.

by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 15:03:22 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I Want It I Want It I Want It

I've met Trauner and he's a terrific candidate. For those thinking about contributions, a little money goes a long way in Wyoming....what a payoff it would be if Trauner won this race.

by: dsimon @ Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 16:06:25 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Is Likely R still SSP's rating for this race?

by: homerun @ Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 16:15:45 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Yes

They may be tied now, but those undoubtedly conservative-leaning undecideds have to go somewhere on election day.

by: James L. @ Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 16:51:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

So it's likely R because of the large number of undecideds?

a problem that seems to have plagued every WY-AL poll so far?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 23:58:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well

Yeah, sorta. Trauner has been polling in the mid-to-low 40's for a year. That's great for a Wyoming Democrat, but how does he get to 50? Barbara Cubin ran one of the lousiest campaigns in the nation in 2006 -- a year where there was no Presidential contest to drive out Palin-crazed voters -- yet Trauner still couldn't find a way to 50. Yeah, Lummis doesn't seem like the sharpest tool in the shed either, but she hasn't sunk to any Cubin-style gaffes so far.

It's just a hella tough race to win. Democrats have come close to winning federal races before in Wyoming -- just look at John Vinich's campaigns in 1988 and 1989. The first race was especially close -- he almost beat an incumbent GOP Senator (losing by just 1300 votes) -- but the takeaway at the end of the day is that he still lost.

We could upgrade this race at some point, but we have to see some superhuman strength from Trauner. We'll be watching closely.

by: James L. @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 00:39:36 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Depends On The Framing

WY does have a Democratic governor, so they can elect a Democrat on a statewide basis. The hill on the federal side seems steeper, though.

If the election is Trauner v. Lummis, he can win. If it's D v. R, it won't happen. I don't think anyone knows how undecideds will see it.

But at least there will be a polling place on the U. WY. campus this time around.

by: dsimon @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 14:33:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Trauner did better in his first race

losing only by 1012 votes, in a state with even more people than back then.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 22:40:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

That's very true

But take a look at where the undecideds are coming from. 25% of Republicans are undecided. That's gonna be a TOUGH block to win over.

by: James L. @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 00:00:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]