Barack to the rescue?

Is this the kind of district he should do well in? I know it has a D PVI but is it blue collar? I expect it probably is if Barletta is scoring on immigration in particular.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 14:44:39 PM CDT

This was

one of Hillary's strongest districts anywhere: very white, very blue-collar, very old, very Catholic. Old-school Pennsylvania. Obama's not the one to come to the rescue here.

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by: Crisitunity @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 15:02:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No

Obama did horribly in this district in the primary and I'm not sure Hillary would be much help either.

Perhaps Ed Rendell is the only one who can help Kanjorski out.

His immigration stance is definitely what's helping him. It would be a huge warning to Democrats if he wins here on that issue. This is the heart of Pennsylvania union country.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 17:05:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Warning? Yeah right

The anti-immigration stance has time and time again failed miserably for republicans.  It wouldn't be a warning shot even if Kanjorski lost here, it would be a high-profile politician beating a lackluster (though longtime) congressman who hasn't run a hard fought campaign in ages.  If Barletta wins this race you can be sure he'd lose to a better Democrat in 2010.  Though I don't believe for a moment Kanjorski will lose anyhow.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 18:38:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A lot of worse Democrats

win after bad campaigns. I know this district. I'm from NYC and many of my family and friends moved here for one reason...to be around more white people. Xenophobia sent them to the Poconos. Barletta is connecting with that.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 20:38:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree with that statement

It probably is working in Kanjorski's district, and may cost him the election.  I'm just saying that PA-11 is an outlier as far as immigration goes.  In most parts of the country the issue is a loser for republicans.  This is especially true in the southwest where Hispanics could turn out in big numbers if the repubs go in the Barletta/Tancredo path of bashing immigrants.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 20:46:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

On that I would agree

but we need to pay attention to where it DOES work.

Pennsylvania is a VERY important state for Democrats.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Aug 07, 2008 at 20:40:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sad but true

Culturally, that area is about as right-wing as you can get, especially in the Northeast. I interned in Kanjorski's office one summer in college and we used to get calls all the time from constituents whining about foreigners. And they're as racist as they are xenophobic.

When push comes to shove, though, they usually vote Democratic if sometimes by the barest of margins, so I think Kanjorski will hang on. If he doesn't, take comfort in the fact that with the exception of labor-related issues, we're not losing anything. Kanjorski is staunchly anti-choice, indifferent at best on most other social issues, and not particularly active on anything not strictly parochial to Northeast Pennsylvania. There's a reason why he's practically unknown outside his district despite having been in office for 24 years.

And on top of everything else, when neighboring Rep. Joe McDade was under indictment and facing a serious re-election challenge in 1996, Kanjorski played Innuye to McDade's Stevens.  I know because I worked for the Democratic nominee against McDade and, even though I knew most of Kanjorski's staff (having interned with them), I was under strict orders not to have any more contact with them than absolutely necessary. It was understood that any information we gave them would go straight to McDade's campaign.  

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by: RamblinDave @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 23:27:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I worked

in a NYS Assemblyman's office in Queens a few years ago and the biggest complaint we got from constituents was about the immigrants.

Queens.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Aug 07, 2008 at 20:41:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That CBS video hurts

I mean wow. I was not buying the hype on this race, but after watching that, wow, Kanjorski sucks.

sigh Better Democrat for 2010? And we better hope it is better democrat and not MORE democrat having to take out a Rep. Barletta.

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by: trowaman @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 14:54:56 PM CDT

So they JUST released this internal poll...

taken in June?  Uh-huh.

Though the Kanjorski campaign's response is unsettling too, you have to wonder why they waited over a month to let us know about that internal poll.

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by: BruinKid @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 15:13:40 PM CDT

Kanjorski by about 10 points

If Lou ran in a better GOP year maybe, but not this year.  If his internal has him up 4 I'm inclined to believe he's down about 5-10 points.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 15:39:31 PM CDT

Not a great year for Republicans,

but not a good year for Obama in that district. At least, not yet. Hillary Clinton stomped him there in the primary.  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 15:59:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]