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OR-Sen: Smith Leads By 12 in New Poll

by: James L.

Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 1:38 AM EDT

SurveyUSA (8/2-4, likely voters):

Jeff Merkley (D): 37
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 49
Dave Brownlow (C): 8
(MoE: ±4%)

A few things seem a bit funky here, most notably Gordon Smith's improbably high 53-29 performance among voters aged 18-34.

The partisan breakdown of the sample, at 37R-41D-22I, is also perhaps a bit suspect. SUSA's partisan sample of Oregon has fluctuated in recent months, from 32R-44D in April to 32R-48D in May to 41R-42D in June. Where lies the truth? CNN's 2004 exit poll pegged turnout as 34R-32D-34I, but surely the landscape is now tinted with a bluer hue four years later. In fact, according to the latest voter registration numbers from the OR SoS, Dems have a 43%-33% voter registration advantage over the GOP as of June. That's a significant advantage that you don't see reflected in SUSA's model.

That said, Merkley's 63-28 performance among Democrats in the poll is of concern, as it could reflect Gordon Smith's recent bipartisan bear-hugs of Barack Obama and lately even John Forbes Kerry (whom Gordo once harshly criticized as advocating "all kinds of socialism"). However, I still think this race is closer than SUSA's latest survey suggests.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

James L. :: OR-Sen: Smith Leads By 12 in New Poll

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OR-Sen: Smith Leads By 12 in New Poll | 11 comments

One of the things I love about SUSA

is that, beyond weighting to the census, they do not make any artificial assumptions about anything. They could be wrong, but they did not just arbitrarily decide the party split in OR is 37R/41D/22I. Party ID is an attitude, not a tattoo.

by: andgarden @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 00:47:49 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Yep.

And as Iowa taught us, making assumptions based on previous years can be a very dangerous thing. Why did Anne Selzer almost nail the final margin exactly? Because she had MANY more young people in her sample than the other polls did. Why? Because she said in her telephone surveys, so many of them said they were going to show up, that she basically said to heck with it, that's what we're gonna go with.

So even if SUSA's respondents are more Republican than you or I would think there would be, it's perfectly fair for them to keep the results as is, so long as they publish all the cross-tabs for us to see, which they do. So if they oversampled or undersampled a certain group, at least it will be obvious to those of us who study the polls.

The within-sample numbers are a bit trickier. Like young people. It's not the percentage of them SUSA has in their sample, but that they're going so strongly for Smith, which seems to defy all common sense. But hey, maybe that's a sign for the Merkley campaign to really put an emphasis on turning out students at Oregon and Oregon State and the other colleges come fall. And if they do, then we won't see that reflected in the polls until October.

by: BruinKid @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:06:26 AM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Obama's coattails

will be key here. It sure looks like Merkley could benefit from a joint appearance with Obama. That would help the new young voters understand what a smokescreen Gordon Smith is putting up.

by: bear83 @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:57:12 AM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Residual Bitterness

Count me among the 28% of Democrats who won't be voting for Jeff Merkley. There are a significant number of us who are still bitter about the massive stealth contributions Chuckie & Co. made in the last weeks of Merkley's primary campaign.

The way it was done was profoundly and deliberately deceptive.

While Merkley might be "better" than Gordon Smith, the choice is still between Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dumber.

by: Larry McD @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:07:34 AM CDT

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Wow, great idea!

don't vote for Merkley because he isn't a perfect Dem, despite his solid record as OR House Speaker. Frohnmeyer dropepd out so who are you voting for? Noone? That makes a lot of sense...

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:23:59 AM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Hi Larry.

If Merkley is indeed "Tweedle Dumb", why did your hero Steve Novick endorse him?

by: James L. @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:34:33 AM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Easy Answer

Because Novick is a team player who sees party unity as important. I'm not and I don't. Not when the party tilts the table and subverts the primary process. I think it's perfectly acceptable for Clinton supporters to refuse to vote for Barack Obama though he is, in fact, another of my heros.

And I have to say yes, my intention has been not to vote in the Senate race but The Guru and TheUnknown285 may have a point. I guess I should grow up and stand up. OK, based on the maturity, intelligence, and eloquence of the people surrounding and supporting Merkley, I'll vote for Smith.

Thanks, Guru and TU285.

by: Larry McD @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 18:54:39 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Steve Novick would be ashamed of you.

by: James L. @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 18:58:35 PM CDT

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Wow

That has to be the single worst post I've ever read on this site. Yes, it might even top some of antoni's posts from last night. Voting for a republican like Smith just to spite other democrats is beyond nonsensical.

Novick is a good man and ran a good campaign. He came close, but he LOST, get over it, we have. I was actually torn between Novick and Merkley, but Merkley won and I can live with that.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 20:39:05 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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That is terrible.

Who the f*ck are "The Guru" and the "TheUnknown285"? I am so lost.

Oh, and I think Larry should vote for Nader as well. If your going to act like a retard why not go all out?

by: nrimmer @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 21:00:40 PM CDT

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