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FL-Sen: Looking For Challengers

by: James L.

Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 7:51 PM EDT


One of the coolest things about Public Policy Polling is that they periodically ask their readers to submit names of possible candidates to test in 2010 Senate match-up polls. Over at their blog, PPP is asking for names to test against GOP crumb-bum Sen. Mel Martinez in a new poll to be conducted later this week.

Last month, they matched up Martinez with Florida CFO Alex Sink and Congressman Robert Wexler, and found the incumbent Senator's numbers lagging. If you feel so inclined, I suggest dropping them a card and leaving the names of candidates you'd like to see tested against Martinez.

Personally, I'd be inclined to line up Martinez against Reps. Ron Klein and Kathy Castor, but you're encouraged to put forth your own suggestions.
James L. :: FL-Sen: Looking For Challengers
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FL-Sen: Looking For Challengers | 66 comments
Ya Klein is my pick
He's probably the second best pick after Sink.  Sadly our bench in FL is about an inch deep.  Hopefully that will change afer 2008.  
Klein and Sink . . .
About the only other possibility is Wasserman-Schultz and she's got good and bad things going for her based on her voting record.

Wexler I think is too much out of left field (pun intended) to win statewide (it'd be like Kucinich running statewide in Ohio.

[ Parent ]
I tell you if Wexler ran.
I would campaign like there was no tomorrow haha. Though I have to agree :(.  
[ Parent ]
Agreed, I'd give Wexler about a 46% cap
Barring some major scandel of gaffe on Martinez's part, a candidate like Wexler probably has a 46% cap of support in FL.  If you want a more electable south FL liberal look to Klein.  He's proven that he can win a swing district and raise boatloads of cash.
[ Parent ]
Does anyone really like him?
I wouldn't be suprised to see him primaried from the right in 2010, as he seems to be one of the hard core conservatives least favorite Republicans.
I wouldn't be surprised either
Martinez is mostly disliked by the GOP base in FL and is essentially a backbencher in the Senate.  He is absolutely vulnerable to a primary challenge.  

I wonder if career-candidate and current FL Attorney General Bill McCollum will take another crack at him.  They had a VERY nasty primary in 2004.  In that primary Martinez put out a lot of completely false ads attacking McCollum.  McCollum still despises Martinez over that, so I wouldn't rule out McCollum running just to attack Martinez if nothing else.

[ Parent ]
McCollum
Yes..this is the same McCollum that was one of the impeachment managers in the House and lost against Nelson in 2000.  An awful Congressman for Orlando and even worst, an awful attorney general.  All of the felons who had their voting rights restored owe McCollum a gratitude of thanks by voting against him.
[ Parent ]
Yes, he is all of those things
And he was only elected Attorney General against an incredibly flawed Dem candidate in 2006.  Still, he's a standard right-wing republican and better liked among the FL GOP base than Martinez.
[ Parent ]
Martinez Primary
If Martinez is primaried I doubt it would come from anyone from Orlando or with connections to Orlando.  Thereby, ruling out:

- Soon to be Ex Congressman Feeney

- Hopefully soon to be Ex Congressman Keller

- Howdy Doody Congressman Adam Putnam

- Orange County Executive Rich Crotty

- Congressman Mica

- Congresswoman Brown-Waite (She can barely win her own district)

- Attorney General Bill McCollum

So which Republican would most likely challenge Martinez:

- Jacksonville Congressman Ander Crenshaw

He would win North Florida, Martinez South Florida, and Central Florida would once again be the toss up, yet leaning toward Martinez since he resides there and has years of name recognition.

[ Parent ]
where do you get this information
why in your opinion is Crendershaw the most likely to run?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I could see Putnam doing it.
He probably wants to move up and he'd be a formidable challenger.

I don't think he's quite as tied to Orlando or Martinez as your saying.

[ Parent ]
Other options
As much as I like Klein (full disclosure - worked on his field staff in 06), I'd rather see him build seniority in the House and get stuff done.

The FL bench is so thin... if not Alex Sink, what about 06 Gov Candidate Rod Smith? To win statewide you need someone who 'gets' North/Central FL.

Well I hate to say it
But Allen Boyd would be one of the strongest candidates.  Granted, I'm not a fan of the guy and wouldn't donate a dime to him if he ran, but his moderate record and roots in north FL would help him.  He's already in his 60's and in a powerful position in the House, so I strongly doubt he'd consider running.
[ Parent ]
Ehh we'd have someone worse then Ben Nelson in the Senate.
Bleah on that idea. He probably would be more conservative then Martinez in key areas.  
[ Parent ]
Right
We are talking about one of the only Democrats who was willing to go along with Bush's disastrous plan to privatize/destroy social security.

I think we can do better than that shitbird Boyd.

[ Parent ]
What about former congressman and 2006 nominee for
governor Jim Davis?
Oh please no
There's a reason he lost handily statewide in a very favorable Dem year.  He's a very poor campaigner and a poor oerall candidate.  I'd take another run by Betty Castor over him.
[ Parent ]
Good to know; just checking
Hopefully, Democrats can coalesce around one candidate (Sink?) and avoid a primary.  Sometimes primaries can be good, but Florida's is in late August, which gives the nominee only a very short time to raise $ for the general.
[ Parent ]
Trust me, if Sink runs
She should be able to scare off the other big names from running.  That's a big if though.  I have to idea if she has aspirations of going to D.C.
[ Parent ]
what were you a rod smith fan ?
Because Smith refused to go on the sameticket, creating a strong, central nad northern florida base ticket, with millions of dollars cash on hand, he forced a primary instead. The mans reprehinsible record on big sugar and pollution led that industry to spend something like five million to overcome Smith's shortcomings in the fundraising department. So, Davis was bankrupted by a late primary, and Crist had some seven to nine million dollars to spend, and ended up winning his primary in a landslide, giving him allthe mo late in the campaign. Not to mention Crist ran as moderate. Davis didn't lose handily, by like eight to ten points I remember, which wasn't bad considering everything against him, including Crist's name recognition. I don't, I just saw FL Democrats shot themselves in the foot in FL-Gov election. That being said, Karen Thurman might have been a better candidate.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Senate Race
Klein, Wexler, and newly-elected Castor would all have a hard time winning Florida.  You need a moderate Democrat and someone from the 1-4 corridor, coincidentally both Martinez and Nelson are from Orlando.  So who has the best chance:

- CFO Alex Sink (Wife of former Governor nominee Bill McBride)

- Orlando mayor Buddy Dyer (a moderate who beat the Bush machine and WON)

- Former Tampa Mayor Dick Greco (a popular mayor, yet with two drawbacks: age and he's Florida's version of Lieberman, constantly supporting Republicans).

- Former Miami-Dade mayor Alex Penelas (another Cuban, fairly young, and he will cancel Martinez's Cuban vote).

LOL, one funny name mentioned on their forum
Shaquille O'Neal.  That would be amusing.
Can't believe this little snippet
Of an NYT column from 15 years ago popped into my head:

Riley's comments about the All-Star starters, who are voted on by fans, are sure to stir up controversy in Orlando, where O'Neal could probably run for mayor. And it should provide an interesting sidelight for Sunday's game, where Riley will be the Eastern Conference coach while O'Neal will be the starting center. (Emphasis added.)

Ah, when the Knicks were good. Those were the days.

[ Parent ]
Florida Politics
Sorry to inform you all, but Florida is one of two states moving more to the Republican side (West Virginia is the other).  However, more states are moving toward Democrats:

Colorado
Iowa
Montana
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Ohio
Virginia

Of course, we can include those toss-up states, which I never felt ever left Democrats anyways:

Michigan
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

And, the soon to be state's moving more and more Democratic:

Arizona
Texas

The GOP will soon be the party of the South, appropriately so.

Thanks for informing us.
We would never have known that without you.
[ Parent ]
Are you being snarky?
I'm having a hard time pinning down your emotion. antoni is definitely a list man.
[ Parent ]
A bit snarky, yes
I like lists as much as the next guy, it was just his line about informing us that Florida is GOP-trending that kind of amused me -- as if readers here haven't seen the 2000 and 2004 electoral maps.
[ Parent ]
I hear you.
There is nothing like using an oversimplified hypothesis to bother a professional.
[ Parent ]
We're all just a bunch of raving "ultra-liberals" to him.

[ Parent ]
Hey, I appreciated the comment
despite the fact that it reminded me of how sad I felt when we lost FL in 2004.

Granted, I used to live in FL.  It's sorta personal.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
It's too simplistic to refer to FL-Sen 2010 on a presidential level only.
when we're going into the presidential election, set to make gains among the Democrats congressional delegation with competitive seats like FL-13, FL-21, FL-24, and FL-25 while also seeing less competitive, but still contested seats such as FL-09, and FL-18.  Sure, Florida is an older state, Republican friendly demographics.  But we're working with what we've got.  

Electing a senator in Florida also isnt impossible, considering they already have one elected.  (Ben Nelson)  Especially considering how in a strong Republican year, Martinez won with 49.43% and in a strong Democratic year, Nelson won with 60.3%.  

[ Parent ]
It's certainly doable.
Especially if our candidate is someone with the track record of Alex Sink, for instance.

My bigger beef with antoni's takes are his belief that certain candidates are too liberal to represent moderate constituencies. To use specific examples that he's cited: Jim Himes in CT-04 or Ron Klein for FL-Sen (hypothetically speaking). Obviously I disagree, but I'd add that it's this sort of thinking that would have written off Sherrod Brown as a sure loser in 2006.

[ Parent ]
Realistically speaking, certain candidates
are not good fits for the district or state that they're running in.

I don't believe you can run anyone and win.  Take Harrison in NY-13 for example.

And as a Florida native, I don't believe Wexler can win statewide.  I don't know enough about Kline to have an opinion as to how he'd fair.

[ Parent ]
Kline = MN Republican, Klein = FL Democrat

[ Parent ]
Right, thanks.
Like I said, I don't know enough about him, including apparently his name!
[ Parent ]
Ron Klein is a great guy.
I say that from personal knowledge-- he is a friend of my family's.  I was thrilled to see him get elected in '06, and I've been pretty impressed with his track record in the House so far.  However, as great as he is, I don't think he is statewide material.  Think of it this way: the state of Florida is a miniature version of the entire nation.  The southeastern part of the state-- the tri-county area of Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade Counties-- is essentially the Northeast. (And yes, I know, technically it's called Miami-Dade County, but, damnit, just the way U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago is still Comiskey, Miami-Dade is still Dade!  But I digress).  Now, think about it from a national perspective-- in a Presidential race, we haven't done well running northeastern candidates, whose liberal bona fides earn them laurels in their home region, but who don't resonate with the culture in redder parts of the country.  Well, the same is true for South Florida.  The west coast of Florida is very midwestern, the northern part is very deep-south (including the Pandhandle, otherwise known as the Redneck Riviera,) and, if you add that all together, you get a population that doesn't necessarily respond well to a liberal Jewish candidate.  So, I say that Klein, Wexler, and  DWS (especially DWS, after her recent complacency in fighting Republicans) should stay in the House, build up power there, and hold onto those South Florida seats for years to come!
[ Parent ]
It's true about the panhandle
That regions is essentially an extension of Alabama politically.  I've been in that region many times and there is a good deal of bigotry and anti-semitism up there.  Thankfully that part of the state only makes up a small part of Florida's population and most of the growth is outside the panhandle.
[ Parent ]
A lot of 2004 had to deal with a weak
FDP and weak turnout operation I would not be surprised at all if Obama took Florida.
[ Parent ]
Obama has been polling surprisingly strongly in Florida
It won't be the clicher but it might come over with a 6 point or so national win.
[ Parent ]
Late breaking
From my in depth analysis. Contrary to the CW, I'm now declaring Rhode Island to be Safe Dem for the presidential. I know you may not agree because you don't really have any interest in electoral politics, but that's why my insight is so important. I've also moved Orrin Hatch to the "Safe R" category despite all evidence to the contrary.
[ Parent ]
the key areas of Florida, the most populous
counties with the most growth, Orange, Sarasota, Pinellas, Broward, and Hillsborough all continue to trend dem in registration, and in their base dem vote. In addition the younger cuban vote is becoming a lot more Democraticthan the older more traditional cuban voters, the influx of non-cuban hispanics in addition to these changes make it hard to see how the Florida Republican party can stay on top here, and soon, within the next decade, I feel that the state will lean Dem, Kerry underperformed Gore to say the least, he lost ground in Hillsborough, Orange county, but he gained in Broward and Sarasota, and Pinellas, I believe. And,as the economy in West Virginia trends downward, I think you will see it moveback to it's solidly Democratic roots. Clinton won the state by more then twenty percentage points, both times. Just four years after he won 56-38, Gore lost it by eight points because he did not campaign there and lost the likability contest, and Bush won over coal miners while Gore lost them with some of his pro-environment stances. Then in 2004 we had Kerry, also not very likeable, he also did not campaign, and Bush brought the coal miners solidly into his pocket. You can't look at Bush's performance and say the state is trending Republican, those electionswere based more on the candidates, and coal mining. Republicans are likely to lose their only statewide office this year, and Democrats will maintain their overwhelming edge in the state legislaturre.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
also,
South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Hawaii, Oklahoma, they are all also becoming more Republican.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
No No No - Florida isn't trending Repub
Florida is most certainly NOT trending republican.  It's trending in our favor, albeit more slowly than other places liek the western states (CO, NV, etc.) and Texas.  As another poster already stated, the more populous and high growth counties are trending Dem, especially Orange county and Central FL as a whole.  

If you want to pick the top two states trending repub I'd suggest WV and LA.  Though there is still little evidence of WV moving repub at the state and local level.  It's more at the Presidential level in that state.

I think you are reading the 2004 election all wrong.  Kerry was just a horrendous candidate to run in FL.  

[ Parent ]
West Virginia versus Virginia
Am I alone in finding the recent trends in WV and VA a little ironic considering the birth of the former?
[ Parent ]
I damn well hope you are right
I'm still upset about what happened in 2000 then 2004.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
I really believe it
Our state party is finally starting to get it's act together.  That has been our biggest problem for about a decade.  We finally have top-notch candidates running in many parts of the state this year.  We should really see some dividends this time around.
[ Parent ]
Here's my list......
1) Alex Sink
2) Ron Klein
3) Robert Wexler
4) Allen Boyd, Jr.
5) Bob Graham

I like Alex Sink and Ron Klein as mainstream Dems. A poll of Wexler's chances would show the potential for a progressive candidate. A poll of Boyd would show the chance for a conservative member.

I would be interested to see Bob Graham just for shits and giggles. I mean the guy ran for Prez only four years ago. Lautenberg came out of retirement at 76. Why not Graham at 65?

I definitely think Alex Sink, Ron Klein and Bob Graham have the best chances. Ron Klein has an impressive resume and Sink is a hands down favorite. I'm interested in Allen Boyd, Jr.'s showing also. I'd rather have a Senator Boyd than a Senator Martinez.

On a side note, Martinez is the only GOP Senator who isn't white. If we could get rid of him, the GOP would lack any racial diversity (at least in the Senate).

That's where defeating the Miami 3 come in...
Knock out the Diaz-Balarts and Ros-Lehtinen, and then they have no diversity whatsoever, now that Henry Bonilla's gone.

But I agree on Klein and Sink.

Kathy Castor would be a moderately liberal choice, probably somewhere between the Klein and Wexler. Plus, being from the Tampa Bay area may help in Hillsborough/Pinellas, which is pretty crucial.

Corinne Brown is probably too old, and Alcee Hastings, well...has his share of ethical issues. Tim Mahoney...is a huge flake.

I'm sure given the State Leg. term limits, there will be some game of musical chairs happening between the State House and State Senate, and some will inevitably choose to look to Federal office.

Either way, I hope nothing like Peter Deutch's attacks on Betty Castor happen in 2010, and a not-too-bruised consensus candidate can beat Martinez.

[ Parent ]
In any other year I think Betty Castor would have beat Martinez
Lots of good Dems lost in 2004 because they couldn't overcome the Bush coattails.
[ Parent ]
The black candidates are non-starters
Trust me, Brown, Hastings and Meek have zero chance of winning statewide.  I'd give any of them a 40% cap of support.  Brown is the worst.  She represents an insanely democratic district and always underperforms.  Any of the Jewish congressmen from South FL would do better than the black congressmen.
[ Parent ]
Bob Graham would beat Martinez quite easily IMO
IT would probably be one of those 54-46 type wins.  Graham is still well-liked and respected in FL.  There is no reason to think he wants to make a comeback though.  Remember, Graham did destroy now Gov. Crist back in the 1998 Senate race by something like a 62-38 margin.  Though that was when Crist was lesser known.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, there isn't any indication of Graham's interest.
I would still be interested to see a poll of a Graham-Martinez match up just to gauge the limit of Democratic support. Graham definitely has name rec and favorables maxed out, so it could show the Dem ceiling. Then we could know what's possible.
[ Parent ]
My suggestions
-Another run by Betty Castor. I wonder if she'd win if she ran again.

Super unlikely but if Joe Garcia gets elected it might be good to have a CubanAmerican beat Martinez and change all four of the last Hispanic Republicans to Hispanic Democrats.

-Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio

-Florida House of Representatives Democratic Leader Dan Gelber who is running for State Senate currently.  

My thoughts:
Personally, I think that Debbie Wasserman-Schultz would be the best candidate to face Mel MArtinez. Granted, she used to be my congresswomen bu, in my opinion at least, her positves outweigh the negatives. She supported Clinton in the primary (WExler's primary mistake) and fought for Florida's delegates to be seated. She also has clout as a deputy house whip. While she is a bit liberal for Florida, she is not NEARLY as bad as WExler.
Huh?
So, Schultz is the better candidate because she endorsed the losing candidate?
[ Parent ]
No
She endorsed the candidate who was supported by a significant plurality of Florida Democrats.
[ Parent ]
In a fictional "election" (eom)

[ Parent ]
In all honesty what kills us in FL...
Is that we have next to no moderate Dems elected.  The 2002 gerrymander effectively made it so that the vast majority of our state reps are ultra-liberals who represent D+15 PVI or higher districts.  

That did change a bit in 2006 with Mahoney and Klein winning.  Hopefully that will change even more if we topple a few of the following this year: Feeney, Keller, Buchanan and the south FL Cuban-American majority reps.

That's one VERY GOOD REASON
that our party activists should pay attention to the bigger picture before making a fuss that a Representative is underperforming her/his district.

But don't we also have Allen Boyd?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Yes
Boyd, Mahoney, and Klein are the three Dem reps we now have who represent swing districts.  Boyd and Mahoney's are marginally right-leaning districts.  Klein's is something like D+4 and we should have little trouble holding that one in the future.

[ Parent ]
FL-Sen, 2010
Alex Sink and Castor the Younger.  Partly because I'd like to see 2010 be a great banner year for women Senate candidates, but I also think these two would be among our best bets.  Especially Sink.
Personally
I don't see why we don't pull a repeat candidate like we did in New Hampshire and get Castor to run again.  She was a strong candidate then and she;d make a strong candidate now.  Does anyone know if she has any interest.  

Though I do agree that if Bob Graham could be talked out of retirement, he would be the candidate to go for.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

NH-Sen.
Judd Gregg against Rep. Paul Hodes.

or against Stonyfield Yogurt CEO Gary Hirshberg, or Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand. Or Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, or Gov. John Lynch, etc, etc...

Sununu's fun to watch flail around, but Gregg's unrepentant record is atrocious. And it's altogether possible he will be all alone in a sea of New England blue come November.

Blue Hampshire - Defeating Republicans since 2006.

Not true . . .
. . . he'll have Olympia Snowe next door in Maine.  And she's never going away.  Come 2011, though, it could be that she'll be the last Republican standing in New England!  But that's assuming everything works out perfectly for us this year (e.g. we beat Sununu AND Collins, beat Shays, and keep Shea-Porter safe), and that 2010 turns out to be good for us, too, which is a long time for a blue wave to last.  But . . . may it happen!
[ Parent ]
still got governorships to deal with
CT M. Jodi Rell
VT Jim Douglas
RI Don Carcieri

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
We'll get those eventually
Though it's not as if they are a huge deal.  In VT and CT we have veto-proof majorities in the state legislatures, essentially making the Governor's powerless.
[ Parent ]
FL-Sen: Looking For Challengers | 66 comments

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