Colorado

Someone is wrong. Obama leads 45-41 and that is more in line with other polling so maybe Frederick is correct. Though his poll has a larger margin of error so who knows. However if we go with the average of the CO polls out the last couple days Obama is a few points up, Udall about 7 or 8 and that feels about right to me.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:38:58 AM CDT

Critical Insights

How strange.  Why wait nearly a month to release a poll; it's already out of date, politically speaking.  Also, who polls over 27 days?!  Do they just have two guys making 15-20 calls/day over their lunch hour?

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by: sicembears @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 13:21:34 PM CDT

The Maine Media . . .

. . . protects Susan Collins even more than the national media protects John McCain.  As such, it will be very difficult for Allen's message to reach the public.  At this point in the game, only Obama's coattails can save Tom Allen from defeat.

(And, James . . . I don't even want to know how you are familiar with the temperature of Collins' fingers!  Heehee, you walked right into that one).

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by: The Caped Composer @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 14:12:22 PM CDT

$5 million in DSCC money

That should help get the message out.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 16:01:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

that's way too much money for maine

that money should get poured into MS and OR.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 16:42:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree

MS is way closer then Maine is for a pick up opportunity, especially considering Wicker has been running a lot of adds for months without Musgrove running any and Wicker has gotten nowhere.
Oregon I also think is a better place to spend then Maine. Gordon has a lower approval rating and the Oregon local media isn't as slanted toward Gordon as the Maine media is (or so it sounds). Oregon is also a closer race.  

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by: Hamtree @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 17:19:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree partly

I doubt they'll end up committing the whole $5 mill to ME, as that much probably isn't needed.  However you have to realize that the DSCC actually does have the money to spend $5 mill in at least a half dozen or more states.  It's notl ike MS or NC are going to see any less money if that much is committed there.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 17:26:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I guess your right...

The DSCC has 22 million more cash on hand then its GOP counterpart and is raising around 40% more each month (around 5 million more each month). So that's 20 more million that they will raise more then he GOP so they will have around 40 million extra to spend from now to election day meaning they can swarm around 8 races with 5 million.
So I guess you're correct.

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by: Hamtree @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 17:44:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm gonna propose

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Maine, Minnesota, Texas, and Idaho.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 19:55:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sounds about right

Just for fun, I thought I'd take a swing at dividing up the $46 million that the DSCC currently holds for the fall election.

VA - $0 - Warner doesn't need a dime
NM - $0 - Neither does Udall
CO - $2 Mill - Udall should be ok, but better safe than sorry
NH - $3.5 Mill - Shaheen should be ok, but she will some cash to bring her in-line with Sununu's fundraising
ME - $4 Mill - A big investment is needed here to get Allen's message out and bring down Collins popularity
AK - $2.5 Mill - Begich is in good shape, but don't underestimate Stevens
MN - $5 Mill - Franken is doing great fundraising but still needs some help to put him over the top.  Tis is going to be an insanely expensive race.
NC - $6 Mill - If we go all out in backing Hagen she can win this one.  A big investment here is a must.
MS - $4 Mill - Musgrove can win this one, but needs some major cash
KY - $4 Mill - This race is too irresistable for the DSCC to pass up

Beyond the above races is where it gets tricky.  I decided to pick four more longshots to drop some big cash in.  Yes, I know I left off Texas and Idaho.  Sorry, but Noriega's fundraising is horrible and I don't think we can afford the $8 Mill plus he'd need to bail him out.  And as for Idaho, I just don't see that one happening.

OK - $4 Mill - Rice seems like the real deal and Inhofe needs to be challenged.
GA - $3 Mill - Of course this investment is only made if Martin wins the primary.  
NE - $2 Mill - Kleeb could make it a race
KS - $2 Mill - Slattery is running a decent campaign.  Might be worth the investment.

LA - $4 Mill - Our lone seat at risk.  I really think Landrieu will survive.  Her fundraising is good thus far and she remains popular for the most part in LA.  Still a big investment is warranted.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 22:22:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I left off Kentucky

because of Lunsford's wealth.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 01:57:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Im gonna disagree

there is plenty of money to go around, I say dump a shit ton in Maine.  I think that is the only way to beat Collins anyway, attack ads showing how she is a tool for the Bush.  

Although, if $5 million means tv watching fatigue, then maybe not as much money.  But a solid $3-4 is warranted and more if it helps.

This would be one great race to win, it would certainly mean a whole lot for a lot of other Republicans in the country who thought they would win too but turns out, people are just plain pissed.  If we can get the people of Maine to throw out Collins, we can certainly win a hell of a lot of other Senate seats where incumbents are much less popular and a lot more Bush oriented.

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by: Andrew @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 22:24:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bear in mind...

that this poll is a month old. If taken now, the gap would probably be even smaller. Secondly, Maine is not an expensive state to run in. If Allen can keep a decent fundraising pace, money should not be an issue. Thirdly, it's July, and the election is not until November. WAY too early to be writing an obituary don't you think?

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by: corran horn @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 10:14:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]