Great news for our candidates

Even if Obama does not win Alaska, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, etc., his efforts and money in the states could have a profound impact for our House and Senate candidates.  

Borrowing from the Cillizza's quality post, while John Kerry got crushed in Alaska in 2004 -- and probably spent not a single cent there -- Tony Knowles only lost by three percent.  Had Kerry's margin been just a little better, it could have put Knowles over the top.  This repeatedly happens to Dems in red states in presidential years.  Our presidential candidate -- often by necessity -- writes off a host of states.  As a result, the GOP nominee runs up enormous victories in the red states, making the missions of our nominees in those states even harder.  It is not tough to see that this point well applied in 2004 with South Dakota and Louisiana, where Kerry's name and lack of efforts there could not have helped Tom Daschle and Chris John.  

I think this point applies to dozens of races in these red states with candidates like Begich, Berkowitz, Titus, Hagan and others facing a harsh statewide dynamic.  If Obama goes down in say Alaska by five, I do not see how Stevens survives given the quality of Begich's candidacy and Ted's own problems.  

Hopefully, before the race is over, Obama also spends some big time and energy even in places like Mississippi, for example, if for no other reason than to boast Ronnie Musgrove and Travis Childers.  That is why this year is so great: with Obama's fundraising power and the wind at our backs, it makes perfect sense for him to contest traditional red states not just for his own campaign, but for our down-ticket candidates who he needs in Congress too.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:48:29 PM CDT

Seems to me most of the list is based on public polling

So if we see positive numbers out of MS and LA we should see some investment from the campaign forthwith. Of course we then get into chicken and egg arguments but this list is a good place to start.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 13:05:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yeah, he should definitely add MS and LA

to help us with our Senate and House races in both states.

And while he's at it, he should also stop by Idaho, Wyoming, and Oklahoma!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 14:10:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

An area to add

no, not an entire state, but the areas of Houston and Dallas, Texas.

Dallas flipped blue in 2006 and high numbers by Obama would help make sure it stays that way (and clean out the remaining republicans) and gain us a state house seat or two.

Houston is where the action is in Texas right now. Everything in Texas is going towards a coordinated campaign there. You got every county office up for grabs (currently all R), at least 4 state house seats on the offense (1 on defense), 2 state senate seats on offense (no defense), TX-7 (Culberson vs. Skelly) and TX-10 (McCaul vs. Doehrty) on offense and Lampson's TX-22 on defense. Southwest Houston is Noriega's base, but we could use some help driving up the numbers through the rest of the county as well for Rick.

2006 Harris county went about 48.5% democratic. If Obama wants to drive up numbers somewhere and help Texas for the future, that is the place. Massive registration drive in Harris county would be very, very welcome.

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by: trowaman @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 14:26:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree; that part of Texas is very slowly trending our way

As we have discussed on other threads, those areas around Houston that have traditionally been dark red have been very slowly showing signs towards us.  I do not know if we can take either the Seventh or Tenth districts, but if Obama plays in the Houston market, he will undoubtedly aid Skelly and Doherty.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 22:32:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama's chances in Georgia are excellent.

In the last poll conducted in Georgia, well over 40% of voters are still undecided whether or not Chambliss deserve another term as Georgia senator. Against Jim Martin chambliss is only getting 51% of the vote & against Dale Cardwell, he is only getting 51% of the vote. Martin is getting 36% ( he got in the race late ) & cardwell is getting 38%. If Obama picks Sam Nunn or Jim Webb as his VP, he will be very competitive here in Georgia & might very well pull off a victory in Georgia.

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by: rural independent @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 13:19:58 PM CDT

Georgia will be in play

If Obama does manage to register 500,000 new voters, that will decisively swing the election.

In 2004, the vote totals were Bush 1,914,254, Kerry 1,366,149.   500,000 represents a 15% increase of voters, and probably 95%-100% will be voting for Obama.  If we adjust the vote totals for those extra 500,000, that is 50.6% Republicans, 49.4% Democrats.

500,000 new Democratic voters makes this state automatically competitive.

Hopefully Jim Martin wins the primary.  The DSCC will have to step-in, he is the only chance we have at that Senate seat.

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by: Andrew @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 13:41:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You're assuming all 500k registered then vote

Seems like a big jump to make.  No groups participate at 100%.  

I'm still all for this project, but Georgia still seems like a big stretch.

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.

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by: bosdcla14 @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 14:02:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And

the fact that Georgia has gained 500k new people since 2004. And I guarantee a lot of those folks are conservatives.  

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by: adamterando @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 14:22:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

well

darn....  Oh well, it'll still help immensely.

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by: Andrew @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 15:42:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Atlanta suburbs

For some reason, the growth has been in the Atlanta suburbs and the new ones are pretty routinely 70%-30% Republican.  Betcha that the folks are over-extended and buy the low taxes mantra.  Low taxes for whom?

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 23:47:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Southern Political Report will release Georgia Prez. Poll tonight

at 7:00pm  The Atlanta TV station channel 2 will cover it at 6:00 tonight

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by: vicupstate @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 15:00:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

do you happen

to know if matt towery is the pollster behind this? if it is newt gingrich's old flunky(he still does republican polling GA), i would take a lot of caution

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by: jackdawkins @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 17:19:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, it is Towery... and he has McCain up by ONE !!

McCain 44
Obama  43
Barr gets 6%.  

[quote]
Analysis from InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery:  

"As Barack Obama has become the clear presumptive nominee of his party, the race has become defined and voters appear to be taking early stands in the race.

"Georgia is competitive for Obama for several reasons. First, it has a high African-American voting age population (VAP). Second, it has an unusually high percentage of younger voters (18-29). Both of these groups are more in the Obama camp, with black voters already at the 83 percent level and likely to climb.  

"Equally important, like its neighbor Florida, Georgia has a high percentage of voters who consider themselves independent. Obama is carrying that critical swing vote by about 10 percent in the poll.

 In this survey, as in almost every survey we have seen or conducted, there is a 'great divide' among age groups. Among those 45 years of age and older, McCain is the clear leader. Among voters who are 44 years of age or younger, Obama leads.  
As to the Bob Barr effect, Barr's numbers dropped slightly overall from our poll of Georgia in March. However, he remains at a 6% level, healthy for a Libertarian. And among senior voters he receives nearly 10% of the vote.

 My view is that Georgia, the 9th largest state in the nation with 15 electoral votes, will remain a major new battleground state through November. This changes the landscape of electoral politics as Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and perhaps another surprise southern state, join Florida as potential "swing states," that cannot be presumed to vote Republican in 2008."
[/quote]

I haven't done an analysis or anything, but Towery did very well predicting the primaries (both parties) this year.  i know of no reason to dismiss him versus and other pollster.  

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by: vicupstate @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 20:35:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Blacks make up 29% of the exit poll

In 2004 exit polls showed that they made up 25% of GA voters.  Considering black turnout should be high this year and the fact that the growth in black population exceeds whites I suppose 29% is reasonable.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 20:56:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

he used to be nothing but a political hack for newt

i know him personally; we tangled on a few races in GA over the years;WE KICKED HIS ASS AND HIS CANDIDATES ASS BACK IN THOSE DAYS(oh well; enough with old home week);having worked many years in GA politics, i am not at all surprised by these numbers; and i am glad to see that perhaps towery has straightened up to the point of actually putting out honest polls; thanks for the update vic(the old winning formula for democrats in southern states still remains the same; split the white vote and take ALL the black vote; ALSO, there are millions of eligible blacks still inregistered in the south, the obama campaign will be working on changing that)

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by: jackdawkins @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 21:38:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't doubt that he was a party man back in the day...

But I think he is trying to establish cred as a good pollster, and seems to be succeeding from what I gather from his website and columns.  

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by: vicupstate @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 22:36:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

i believe he is still a republican in the state lege

correct me if i am wrong; also, i responded in another thread about his firm; i think his firm is non-partisan firm; the reason being, his vice chairman is pierre howard(towery is the chairman); pierre howard is the former DEMOCRATIC lt. governor of ga; when pierre howard first ran for lt. gov. in 1990 he won in a landslide(i worked on the campaign) defeating(guess who?)MATT TOWERY!!!

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by: jackdawkins @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 22:46:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Depends

20% or more of the population is black in a large swath from Delaware and Maryland through Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia,Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. In these states, if you get 40% of the white vote and the black vote, Democrats win.  Of course in some of these states like MS, Republicans score 80% or more of the white vote in recent Presidentials.

The rest of the south: West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas, and Florida has a higher white vote and in West Virginia the black vote is not significant.  Of course in Texas and Florida the Hispanic vote is huge.

The old Jimmy Carter formula of 40%+ of the white vote is devastating.  Carter won 12 of the 13 southern states in 1976, the best since FDR routinely swept the region.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 23:59:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

i should have been more specific

i was reffering to black belt states(clearly, florida, though in the south is NOT a "southern" state); i was refering to the carter formula for winning in the south for democrats; and, it is as true today as its ever been; that is why you will see the obama campaign making the ground(voter registration and gotv) and paid media efforts that they have already begun to make in states long taken for granted by republicans AND democrats as not winnable in presidential races by democrats(this is the reason i continue to state on this site that a realignment election is VERY possible this cycle; i think a "tell"(in poker parlance) will be if mccain takes a crist,jindal,sanford or huckabee as his veep;if mccain takes a southerner as his veep, then he knows he's in trouble in the south and has to shore it up;IF mccain is in trouble in the south, then put a fork in him, he's done)

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by: jackdawkins @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 00:28:35 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

i should add

by the same token, i will not be surprised if obama picks a southerner for veep for the same reason,but with the opposite effect; see what i'm saying? if obama picks a southerner for veep, then he knows he is already in a strong starting position and putting a southerner on the ticket as veep will just be a devastating reinforcement(i should add that even though technically richardson is not a SOUTHERNER; putting him on the ticket would basically have the same type of reinforcing effect; i hope my wording is clear here, if not, i apologize)

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by: jackdawkins @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 00:38:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

sorry

for the run-ons but basically, i would guess that the veep will be either john edwards or bill richardson(i won't discount hillary 100% BUT i think it highly unlikely that hillary is chosen for veep); i look forward to your thoughts on this

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by: jackdawkins @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 00:41:27 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh Boy, VP Spec!

Funny, I've had Richardson pop onto my short list this week. I was convinced Saturday it was going to be Mark Warner, then he said he was not going to accept it. So much for that. I had Strickland in my short list too, but same story. I've dropped the ideas of Tim Kaine (too similar to Obama, if there is such a thing) and Jim Webb (sexism allegations).

I've had one name stay in my top 3 at all times though, and that is Kathleen Sebelius. The questionable factor is would women view it as token slap in the face. She's good, she's qualified, her resume fits, just you got Mrs. X factor there.

Rounding out my top 3 for the moment is Brian Schweitzer, but I'm not feeling it so much because he is on the ballot this year in Montana.

As for Edwards, Attorney General John Edwards seems to have a better ring to it me thinks.

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by: trowaman @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 00:55:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

NC Governor Mike Easley should be on the short list for VP

1) No risk of  a seat, as he is retiring.
2) Provides Executive experience
3) Provides age balance
4) Olive branch to Hillary supporters (Easley endorsed Hill)
5) Makes NC almost a lock. (15 EV) he won statewide 4x    
6) Probably secures a hold on the NC Goverorship
7) Makes Hagan even money against Dole
8) Helps with VA
9) Helps with SC, although probably not enough to flip it
10) Olive branch to Blue Dogs and Moderates
 

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by: vicupstate @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 08:13:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

the easley pick as veep

would go hand-in-hand with my thinking upthread; i think an easley pick does EVERYTHING you say and more; good post

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by: jackdawkins @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 09:58:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

agreed

I cant believe he isnt mentioned way more often.  He would do a lot of good on the ticket in North Carolina.  More so than any other VP choice I can think of when looking at the impact they would have on their home state.  North Carolina is a state we can easily transform (it's already Democratic on all levels except federal).

I dont know enough about him though.  Wikipedia to the rescue.

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by: Andrew @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 14:47:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Do we really want Easley?

I'd rather see an heir apparent as the VP.  Someone likely to take over the reigns in 8 years.  Easley isn't exactly young and doesn't sound very progressive either.  In addition, Easley embarrassed himself badly by endorsing Hillary like one week before she got rolled in NC.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 14:52:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

only speaking for myself (this is highly debatable)

i don't want an heir apparent as veep; contrary to what a lot of talking heads on tv say; i think the long primary process has made barack obama a MUCH better candidate(and for that matter; hillary as well); i remember some of the very early debates and obama was simply awful(he was like the energizer bunny; he got better and better and better); i think one problem al gore had was that he was not REALLY tested for the nomination in 2000(bradley ran an OK race at best)and thus later in the campaign i felt he was a little arrogant when he went up against bush; just my thoughts(as far as easley being a progressive; i would say that ANY governor in NC is going to be moderate,BUT he is clearly a big vote getter when he is campaigning for himself)

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by: jackdawkins @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 15:06:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

though i agree with you

on sibelius qualifications; i just don't see any woman on the ticket other than hillary; for the obvious reasons mentioned elsewhere

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by: jackdawkins @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 10:02:10 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ireally don't get this slap in the face presumption

Many of Hillary's most ardent supporters were feminists who believed strongly it was time for a women to break thru. It seemed to me Hillary was just the vehicle to express that desire. Governor Sebelius is impressive in her own right so I fail to see how any serious backlash would occur. It wouldn't be like he was picking somebody at random off the street. But maybe I am being naive with regard to the volatile nature of identity politics.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 11:04:37 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I like that list

Because many of those states have important Senate and Governor contests.  Obama can help us in those races if he campaigns hard in those states.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 14:19:30 PM CDT

Does anyone know..

How big an add buy this is? Is this going to stay up just for a week or is it much longer?

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by: e_koszyk @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 18:43:30 PM CDT

Hearsay

I saw $1.5 to $3 million in a post, but I don't have a source. Of course, I'm sure they are hoping to leverage the buy with earned media. The ad will run on CNN and MSNBC and godhelpus Faux and maybe other news shows with commentary.

Rinse. Repeat. Next expand the list of states where the ad is running, say, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi. Again, that will make news.

Rinse. Repeat. Add say, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, all cheap media states. Again, that will make news.

Rinse. Repeat. Run a second ad nationally on cable networks. See that ad run on CNN and MSNBC and Faux and other news programs.

Rinse. Repeat. Run the second ad on national network TV, at least on ABC, CBS, and NBC (let Faux cry and see the controversy help make news).

Rinse. Repeat. Run a new ad in West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, North and South Carolina. See  "the Appalachian ad" run on the news channels for free.

This game can be played over the next couple of months, over and over.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 21:22:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is where Obama's massive cash advantage comes into play

We are on the offense in numerous red states as well as the battleground states, while McCain can barely has the cash to defend what are typically solid red states much less go after blue states.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 21:27:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

McCain accepted public financing today

he's finished, Obama will crush him in the cash game. (which in politics, along with momentum and national sentiment is pretty much the whole ballgame.)  

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by: Conniver @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 22:25:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

agreed BUT

the 527 ads against obama are going to make the willie horton ad and the jesse helms affirmative action ad look like small potatoes in comparison(the racism from the right this cycle will shock some folks on this site; the repubs are not going to go quietly into that good night)

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by: jackdawkins @ Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 22:39:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Saxby blames Democrats for Gas Prices

Check this out...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

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by: GeorgiaValues @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 10:13:49 AM CDT

yep

this is the "new" republican talking point mantra; the repubican minions are running all over the country with this nonsense; the fact the GOP really stands for GRAND OIL PARTY aside, this is classic karl rove; remember the "old" republican talking point mantra? it was, going to war in iraq will "pay for itself, with the BENEFIT of cheaper oil and gasoline in the future"; how did that work out for them?

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by: jackdawkins @ Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 10:51:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]