CA-04 (Open): Leans Republican to Likely Republican
Democrat Charlie Brown probably got the less formidable opponent when Conservative Icon Tom McClintock beat former Rep. Doug Ose in the GOP primary here. But despite McClintock's baggage from several failed statewide bids and his carpetbagging ways, Brown will have a hell of a time getting the 50% he needs in this R+11 seat. While he does indeed have a fighting chance, McCain is likely to dominate in this district at the top the ticket, giving a crucial advantage to the somewhat damaged McClintock.
NE-02 (Terry): Safe Republican to Likely Republican
Nebraska's 2nd CD featured a surprisingly close contest in 2006, when Democrat Jim Esch fell short of incumbent Lee Terry by 10 points. However, there are signs that this Omaha-based district may be competitive on the presidential level this year, with a recent poll by SurveyUSA showing Obama within spitting distance of McCain here. Indeed, Terry has been quite vocal about Obama's strength in the district, even going so far as to attempt to tie himself to Obama by hyping the many "Obama-Terry voters" who are sprouting up across the district, looking for "the right kind of change". That kind of talk raises serious alarm bells.
Jim Esch is back for a rematch and has raised a fairly considerable amount of start-up money since he kicked off his bid in late February. An upset can't be ruled out here.
OH-07 (Open): Safe Republican to Likely Republcan
Few expected this R+6 open seat to become competitive after state Sen. Steve Austria stepped up for the GOP here and early Democratic recruitment efforts bore no fruit. But Democratic attorney Sharen Neuhardt has raised a respectable amount of money, and had a cash-on-hand parity with Austria at the beginning of April. A recent poll for Neuhardt turned a lot of heads: it showed Austria leading only by a 41-35 margin, and on the generic ballot, Democrats had 46-33 advantage over the Republicans. Moreover, Austria may not be all that and a bag o' chips; in the GOP primary, the Dayton Daily News gave him the most tepid of endorsements, saying that while he "has offended no important person or constituency," he does not share retiring Rep. Dave Hobson's "tough independence of mind and political incisiveness" and would likely spend his career of ho-hum service on the back benches.
Races like this one will serve as a key test of just how bad 2008 will be for the GOP.
TX-10 (McCaul): Safe Republican to Likely Republican
Last summer, we singled out TX-10 as a district that could turn some heads this year. Despite its R+13 lean, it is trending in the right direction: Gore won 34% of its vote in 2000, while Kerry earned 38% in 2004. And without a home state hero at the top of the ticket, the Democratic performance here could improve once again.
The biggest tell here may have been McCaul's 2006 performance, where he badly outspent his unknown Democratic opponent yet only walked away with a 55-41 result to show for it. However, McCaul won't have the luxury of facing off with an underfunded opponent this year. Democrat Larry Joe Doherty, an attorney and local cable TV celebrity, has already raised an impressive amount, and a recent poll by the Texas-based IVR Polls shows McCaul leading Doherty only by six points.
